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CLEAN GROUND: the understudy cannot hurt them and the refugees can

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Measured rather than asserted: tools/simulate.mjs, 2000 runs a row at seed 11
against the named cast of six, at a clean tree, with the command in the section
so any figure can be re-checked after a rule moves. Re-ran two rows to confirm
determinism before publishing them.

The understudy alone is 0.48 of six hurt, no wipes, median two rounds — a 1d3
punch at 60%. Six of the column wipe one party in twelve and ten wipe five in
six, with the curve between them almost vertical. So the lethal encounter in
this scenario is not the monster in Act Four, it is the refugees in Act Two,
which is the case's moral argument turning out to be its combat maths too.

Four consequences written up for the GM: do not buff the understudy, because the
horror is that it passed every test the party had; adding hollow men buys rounds
and not danger, and six of them cost a median twelve rounds that the Close then
pays for; the column must never become a threat, for the second reason that the
table will lose; and the four-player cut is a different game, where three of the
column already wipe two parties in five.

Every row is a floor — the harness models no bleeding, Panic, Coherence, cover
or fire modes, and Panic and Coherence are both live here. Act Two now carries a
pointer to the section, since that is where the dangerous encounter is.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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slaguru666
2026-09-12 23:45:01 +01:00
co-authored by Claude Opus 5
parent 5450521ed2
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@@ -406,6 +406,9 @@ belongs to nobody in Britain, and dusk comes anyway.
- The six **hollow men** walk at the back. The column is kind to them and does not talk
about them. `[CUS: Spot — the same six at the back, and the same six yesterday]`
- Somewhere out on the flank, something is keeping pace at a distance and on all fours.
- **If violence against the column is even possible at your table, read EXPOSURE in Act
Four first.** Six of them wipe one party in twelve; at four players three of them wipe
two in five. This is the dangerous encounter in the scenario and it is in this act.
**Failure case:** if the party refuses contact, the column camps within sight and one
of the children is sent over with bread. That works on almost everybody.
@@ -453,6 +456,79 @@ requisition number on it and that number is enough to work the rest out from the
- **If a PC is taken:** hand that player the understudy sheet and a private note. They
keep playing. Do not sideline them and do not let it run more than twenty minutes.
### EXPOSURE — what a fight actually costs. Read before Act Two, not before Act Four.
**The finding that matters: the understudy cannot hurt them, and the refugees can wipe
them.** That is the scenario's whole thesis, and it is not a claim — it is measured. A GM
who does not know it will pad Act Four to make it frightening and will be padding the one
encounter in the case that is incapable of being dangerous.
**MEASURED.** `tools/simulate.mjs`, 2000 runs each, seed 11, against the cast of six —
Ashcroft, Bhattacharya, Renshaw, Braithwaite, Pollard, Okonkwo. Taken at commit 5450521
with a clean tree, so the same command reproduces the same figures:
```
node tools/simulate.mjs --creature the_understudy \
--party ashcroft,bhattacharya,renshaw,braithwaite,pollard,okonkwo --runs 2000 --seed 11
```
| What they fight | Hurt | Down | Wiped | Deaths/run | Median rounds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **The understudy, alone** | 0.48 of 6 | 0.01 | **0.0%** | 0.00 | **2** |
| A duplicate of an agent | 0.45 of 6 | 0.05 | 0.0% | 0.01 | 2 |
| One hollow man | 0.20 of 6 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2 |
| Three hollow men | 1.15 of 6 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 6 |
| **Six hollow men** | 2.79 of 6 | 0.15 | **0.0%** | 0.01 | **12** |
| Three of the column | 1.74 of 6 | 0.30 | 0.0% | 0.11 | 5 |
| **Six of the column** | 4.54 of 6 | 2.38 | **8.6%** | 1.18 | 13 |
| **Ten of the column** | 5.94 of 6 | 5.69 | **83.5%** | 2.52 | 15 |
| Fifteen of the column | 6.00 of 6 | 6.00 | **100.0%** | 2.53 | 8 |
**Read these as a floor.** The harness does not model bleeding, Panic, Coherence, cover,
range bands or fire modes, and every one of those makes a fight worse for whoever is
losing. Both of the first two are live in this scenario.
#### The four things a GM needs from that table
1. **Do not fix the understudy.** It is a 1d3 punch with a 60% chance to land, and it goes
down in two rounds. That is correct and it is the point: the horror is that it passed
every test the party had, not that it is hard to kill. A GM who buffs it into a threat
has replaced a scenario about classification with a scenario about a monster, and the
case stops meaning anything.
2. **Adding hollow men buys rounds, not danger.** Six of them still wipe nobody — and
take a **median twelve rounds** to resolve. In a 45-minute act that is the whole act,
and the Close is what pays for it. If Act Four feels thin, the answer is more doubt,
not more bodies.
3. **The column is the lethal encounter in this scenario, and it is not in Act Four.**
Three of them is survivable. **Six wipes one party in twelve. Ten wipes five parties in
six.** The curve between six and ten is almost vertical and a GM improvising bodies
will cross it without noticing. This is why Act Two says the column must never become a
threat: not only because shooting refugees is the moral catastrophe of the case, but
because the table will lose.
4. **The four-player cut is a different game.** Without Okonkwo's rifle and breach suit
and without Pollard's shield, **three of the column wipe two parties in five** and six
wipe virtually all of them:
| Four-player cut fights | Hurt | Down | Wiped | Deaths/run |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Three of the column | 3.24 of 4 | 2.09 | **40.2%** | 0.85 |
| Six of the column | 4.00 of 4 | 3.98 | **99.1%** | 1.45 |
At four players, **any** violence against the column is a party-ending decision. Say
the row out loud before they commit, exactly as THROUGH TRAIN does.
#### What to do instead of a fight
- **Act Four's tension is a test, not a threat.** The question is which of two people is
filed, and the clock is the rehearsal counter, not hit points.
- **If the table insists on shooting the understudy, let them, and let it be easy.** Then
hand them the consequence: they have killed something wearing Sgt Prichard's face, the
entry is still filed, and something over there is already practising. That lands harder
than any wound.
- **If they fire on the column, do not soften it.** Use three, resolve it honestly, and
let the survivors keep walking north past them. Nobody at the Bureau will ask.
**Failure case:** if the party kills it clean in the first ten minutes, it does not
matter — the entry is still filed, and the second one is already practising. Go to Close.
@@ -686,8 +762,8 @@ twice.*
2. ~~The read-aloud text.~~ **Done** — three blocks, in place in Act Two and the Close.
3. ~~Handouts.~~ **Done** — four sheets, CG-H01 to CG-H03b. Still need a print-ready HTML
pack (A4, 11pt minimum) before a convention; the text is final.
4. **A written exposure model for Act Four**, so the GM knows what a fight at the cordon
actually costs before the table starts one.
4. ~~A written exposure model for Act Four.~~ **Done** — measured, 2000 runs a row at seed
11 against the named cast, reproducible from the command in the section.
5. **Desk playtest**, twice, before any of this is called runnable.
## Open questions for Tim