R-221: the phase-lead fallback could never fire

bestIn("tradecraft") ?? bestIn("navigate") never reached Navigate, because every
character carries every skill and skillRating() returns the printed base rather
than null — so the first lookup always found somebody. A team of postings that
train Navigate and not Tradecraft was led by whoever had the highest UNTRAINED
Tradecraft, which is 5%, putting phase three at 1%.

TRAINED now means above the printed base. Measured on a Pathology / Overwatch /
Warden / Materials team: lead 5% -> 34%.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

docs/REVIEW_LOG.md

@@ -3676,3 +3676,44 @@ The rulebook is 9 pages, every page generated from the code it documents, and no
 unresolved localisation key leaks into it. All packs rebuilt: 53 skills, 18 talents,
 30 weapons, 13 armour, 119 gear, 14 vehicles, 6 Arts, 4 pregens, 6 NPCs, 2 tables,
 the rulebook and the starter case. 231 icons and the four dice textures regenerated.
+
+## IRON SIGNAL, played with Anchor / Pathology / Overwatch / Night Warden
+
+A family removed from the world and not from the paperwork, with something using the
+gap; the adversaries were themselves misfiled here generations ago and this is their
+last stable ground. Good case. The team lost it.
+
+Approach succeeded, then everything after failed. Contact with the staff opened on a
+special and then failed twice, so the log never came across. Resources reached zero at
+phase four. The case ends unclosed — the record was not put back — which the generator
+already has an answer for: it followed somebody home, and that is next season's case.
+
+**R-221 · the phase-lead fallback could never fire.** `bestIn("tradecraft") ??
+bestIn("navigate")` — and every character carries every skill, because
+`grantFullSkillList` puts them there, so `skillRating()` returns the printed base
+rather than null. `bestIn("tradecraft")` therefore always found somebody and Navigate
+was unreachable. A team of postings that train Navigate and not Tradecraft — and ten
+of the twenty-five train neither, while eight train only Navigate — was led by
+whoever had the highest UNTRAINED Tradecraft, which is the printed 5%. Measured on a
+Pathology / Overwatch / Warden / Materials team: **the lead was 5%, and phase three
+resolved at 1%.** With TRAINED meaning "above the printed base", the same team leads
+at 34%. Fixed.
+
+**And a correction to my own diagnosis.** I first read IRON SIGNAL's collapse as that
+bug. It was not. The Anchor Officer trains Tradecraft at 40%, which beats the team's
+best Navigate of 34, so the fix changes nothing for this team and the case would have
+gone the same way. The real cause is tuning, and it is worth stating plainly:
+
+    phase chance across the five-phase ramp (difficult, 0 to −20)
+      lead 40%   20% → 15% → 10% →  5% →  1%
+      lead 55%   27% → 22% → 17% → 12% →  7%
+      lead 70%   35% → 30% → 25% → 20% → 15%
+      lead 85%   42% → 37% → 32% → 27% → 22%
+
+Tradecraft is a SUPPORT skill on most postings that have it at all, so a realistic
+lead is 40–55%, and the back half of every case sits in single figures. Two cases in
+a row have now been decided by Resources running out rather than by anything the
+players did. This is a design decision rather than a defect — a case is meant to be
+survived rather than won — but if phases are supposed to be passable, the ramp
+(−5 per phase, on top of `difficult`) is the dial, not `DEFENCE_STEP` and not the
+skill ratings.