v0.20.1: "nearly quadruples" was wrong by three times, in the last two places

Desk pass 9's first fix, applied. The countdown's unsettled row and the Act
Four paragraph both compared 14.5% against 3.8%, and the 3.8% is the rate
against Ashcroft at his undiminished 85 — a contest that never happens,
because if he refuses the thing reaches for the lowest POW in the room.

Against what a table actually rolls: 11.3% at six players (Okonkwo), 10.0% in
the four-player cut (Braithwaite), 14.5% if he accepted. The factor is 1.29,
not 3.9. Both places now name who the target actually is, and the paragraph
carries the correction inline so the claim cannot be re-derived from the old
framing.

What is NOT wrong, and the text says so: the trade THE OFFER describes is
real and the taken rate genuinely moves 40.7% to 48.7%. One consequence was
overstated, by three times.

Written in v0.15, repeated in v0.16, and survived v0.19.1 correcting the
identical error in the table beside it. Flagged again by the peer session
while mapping citation paths, which is the third time this figure has been
caught by somebody reading it rather than by anything checking it — and the
argument for the derived-source markers now going onto it.

npm run check: 20 guards pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND.md

@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@
 
 | | |
 |---|---|
-| **Version** | **v0.20**, 13 September 2026 |
+| **Version** | **v0.20.1**, 13 September 2026 |
 | **Can it be run?** | **Yes, from this document alone.** A GM with this file and the compendium can run it end to end. |
 | **Is it convention-ready?** | **Nearly.** The print pack is built (`CLEAN_GROUND_HANDOUTS.html`, held by `check-handouts`). What is missing is a run with human beings, and a slot. |
 | **Playtesting** | **Seven desk passes, no human runs.** `_1.md` GM chair (seed 4271) · `_2.md` Act Four stress (9314) · `_3.md` player chair, contrarian (5580) · `_4.md` **the clock, against v0.13's recut timings** (6142) · `_5.md` **the four-player cut, played** (8815) · `_6.md` **the four untested branches, forced** (3319) · `_7.md` **an honest session, nothing forced** (7742) · `_8.md` **the cold read, plus an honest session** (5108). Fifty-two fixes plus three post-passes, and pass 7's finding is now a guard: **`check-outcomes` reads every bracketed mechanic tag in the acts and holds what its beat states.** Pass 7 ran ~3:35 against 3:40 at six players with no cuts taken — the first honest pass inside the clock unaided. |
@@ -309,7 +309,7 @@ Advance one step per act, plus one whenever the agents spend Coherence on the fa
 | **4** | The copy is fluent. It is inside the cordon and helping |
 | **5** | It reaches for **the lowest POW in the room** — opposed POW×5 (it is **75**, not 100), permanent. **Unless Ashcroft accepted THE OFFER in Act Two, in which case it takes him instead and he resists at Difficult.** GM ESSENTIALS has the resolution; Act Four beat 3 has the reasoning |
 | **5 — they hold** | ⚠ **THE LIKELIEST RESULT, and the one this document used to leave blank.** If the agent's band beats the thing's — or ties it, because a tie goes to whoever is being acted upon — **the reach simply fails and the person is still themselves.** **48.1%** against Okonkwo, **52.4%** against Braithwaite, **74.3%** against an Ashcroft who refused. This is **not** the unsettled row below and must not be played as it |
-| **5 — unsettled** | **If neither side succeeds, the reach fails and the row is spent.** Common enough to plan for, and **THE OFFER nearly quadruples it**: **3.8%** against an Ashcroft who refused, **10%** against Braithwaite, **14.5%** against an Ashcroft who accepted. It does not retry. See below — it is an outcome, not a gap |
+| **5 — unsettled** | **If neither side succeeds, the reach fails and the row is spent.** Common enough to plan for: **11.3%** against Okonkwo, who is the target at six players; **10%** against Braithwaite, who is the target in the four-player cut; **14.5%** against an Ashcroft who accepted. **THE OFFER raises it by about a quarter, not fourfold** — see below. It does not retry; it is an outcome, not a gap |
 | **6** | It goes south at dusk wearing whatever face it has. **Read the Close's "leave it filed" note: in a one-shot this lands tonight, not as a sequel** |
 
 ### Step 5 has three outcomes, and the one nobody expects is a person holding
@@ -360,12 +360,19 @@ which is the one expression it has never rehearsed.
 
 #### WHEN IT COMES TO NOTHING — the unsettled row, which is a different outcome
 
-**And it will, about one time in seven against an Ashcroft who accepted.** **That is nearly four times the 3.8% it would be if he had refused**, and
-the reason is the same Difficult that makes him easy to take: a resisting side at 42
-succeeds far less often, so *both* sides missing becomes much likelier. Accepting THE OFFER
-makes Dominic both the likeliest person to be taken **and** the likeliest reason the whole
-beat resolves into nothing. A GM whose Ashcroft accepted should expect this outcome, not be
-surprised by it. The rule returns *unsettled*, which is not the agent winning. Do not
+**And it will, about one time in seven against an Ashcroft who accepted — 14.5%, against
+11.3% for the Okonkwo the thing would otherwise have reached for.** The mechanism is the
+Difficult that makes Dominic easy to take: a resisting side at 42 succeeds far less often,
+so *both* sides missing becomes likelier. Accepting THE OFFER makes him both the likeliest
+person to be taken **and** a slightly likelier reason the beat resolves into nothing. A GM
+whose Ashcroft accepted should expect this outcome, not be surprised by it.
+
+> ⚠ **This document said "nearly quadruples" for five versions, comparing 14.5% against
+> 3.8%.** The 3.8% is the unsettled rate against Ashcroft at his undiminished 85 — **a
+> contest that never happens**, because if he refuses the thing reaches for the lowest POW
+> in the room instead. Against what a table actually rolls the factor is **1.29**. The trade
+> THE OFFER describes is real and the *taken* rate genuinely moves 40.7% to 48.7%; only this
+> one consequence was overstated, and it was overstated by three times. The rule returns *unsettled*, which is not the agent winning. Do not
 re-roll it and do not quietly hand the understudy the win. **Play the failure, because it
 is the most frightening thing the creature does all night:**