diff --git a/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND.md b/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND.md
index 43ed797..311017b 100644
--- a/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND.md
+++ b/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND.md
@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@
 
 | | |
 |---|---|
-| **Version** | **v0.20**, 13 September 2026 |
+| **Version** | **v0.20.1**, 13 September 2026 |
 | **Can it be run?** | **Yes, from this document alone.** A GM with this file and the compendium can run it end to end. |
 | **Is it convention-ready?** | **Nearly.** The print pack is built (`CLEAN_GROUND_HANDOUTS.html`, held by `check-handouts`). What is missing is a run with human beings, and a slot. |
 | **Playtesting** | **Seven desk passes, no human runs.** `_1.md` GM chair (seed 4271) · `_2.md` Act Four stress (9314) · `_3.md` player chair, contrarian (5580) · `_4.md` **the clock, against v0.13's recut timings** (6142) · `_5.md` **the four-player cut, played** (8815) · `_6.md` **the four untested branches, forced** (3319) · `_7.md` **an honest session, nothing forced** (7742) · `_8.md` **the cold read, plus an honest session** (5108). Fifty-two fixes plus three post-passes, and pass 7's finding is now a guard: **`check-outcomes` reads every bracketed mechanic tag in the acts and holds what its beat states.** Pass 7 ran ~3:35 against 3:40 at six players with no cuts taken — the first honest pass inside the clock unaided. |
@@ -309,7 +309,7 @@ Advance one step per act, plus one whenever the agents spend Coherence on the fa
 | **4** | The copy is fluent. It is inside the cordon and helping |
 | **5** | It reaches for **the lowest POW in the room** — opposed POW×5 (it is **75**, not 100), permanent. **Unless Ashcroft accepted THE OFFER in Act Two, in which case it takes him instead and he resists at Difficult.** GM ESSENTIALS has the resolution; Act Four beat 3 has the reasoning |
 | **5 — they hold** | ⚠ **THE LIKELIEST RESULT, and the one this document used to leave blank.** If the agent's band beats the thing's — or ties it, because a tie goes to whoever is being acted upon — **the reach simply fails and the person is still themselves.** **48.1%** against Okonkwo, **52.4%** against Braithwaite, **74.3%** against an Ashcroft who refused. This is **not** the unsettled row below and must not be played as it |
-| **5 — unsettled** | **If neither side succeeds, the reach fails and the row is spent.** Common enough to plan for, and **THE OFFER nearly quadruples it**: **3.8%** against an Ashcroft who refused, **10%** against Braithwaite, **14.5%** against an Ashcroft who accepted. It does not retry. See below — it is an outcome, not a gap |
+| **5 — unsettled** | **If neither side succeeds, the reach fails and the row is spent.** Common enough to plan for: **11.3%** against Okonkwo, who is the target at six players; **10%** against Braithwaite, who is the target in the four-player cut; **14.5%** against an Ashcroft who accepted. **THE OFFER raises it by about a quarter, not fourfold** — see below. It does not retry; it is an outcome, not a gap |
 | **6** | It goes south at dusk wearing whatever face it has. **Read the Close's "leave it filed" note: in a one-shot this lands tonight, not as a sequel** |
 
 ### Step 5 has three outcomes, and the one nobody expects is a person holding
@@ -360,12 +360,19 @@ which is the one expression it has never rehearsed.
 
 #### WHEN IT COMES TO NOTHING — the unsettled row, which is a different outcome
 
-**And it will, about one time in seven against an Ashcroft who accepted.** **That is nearly four times the 3.8% it would be if he had refused**, and
-the reason is the same Difficult that makes him easy to take: a resisting side at 42
-succeeds far less often, so *both* sides missing becomes much likelier. Accepting THE OFFER
-makes Dominic both the likeliest person to be taken **and** the likeliest reason the whole
-beat resolves into nothing. A GM whose Ashcroft accepted should expect this outcome, not be
-surprised by it. The rule returns *unsettled*, which is not the agent winning. Do not
+**And it will, about one time in seven against an Ashcroft who accepted — 14.5%, against
+11.3% for the Okonkwo the thing would otherwise have reached for.** The mechanism is the
+Difficult that makes Dominic easy to take: a resisting side at 42 succeeds far less often,
+so *both* sides missing becomes likelier. Accepting THE OFFER makes him both the likeliest
+person to be taken **and** a slightly likelier reason the beat resolves into nothing. A GM
+whose Ashcroft accepted should expect this outcome, not be surprised by it.
+
+> ⚠ **This document said "nearly quadruples" for five versions, comparing 14.5% against
+> 3.8%.** The 3.8% is the unsettled rate against Ashcroft at his undiminished 85 — **a
+> contest that never happens**, because if he refuses the thing reaches for the lowest POW
+> in the room instead. Against what a table actually rolls the factor is **1.29**. The trade
+> THE OFFER describes is real and the *taken* rate genuinely moves 40.7% to 48.7%; only this
+> one consequence was overstated, and it was overstated by three times. The rule returns *unsettled*, which is not the agent winning. Do not
 re-roll it and do not quietly hand the understudy the win. **Play the failure, because it
 is the most frightening thing the creature does all night:**