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One generator, so a citation names one fight (R-265)

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tools/playthrough.mjs exists to show a reader why a measured number is what it is. I cited
it to another session — read seed 2, see the wipe the 45% row is made of — and the
reproduction failed in front of them. They reported different outcomes at both seeds and
guessed the cause correctly from outside: the two tools were not drawing from the same
stream.

They were not. simulate.mjs used a private mulberry32 makeRng; playthrough.mjs had its own
LCG written to look like it. Both deterministic, both reproducible alone, and "seed 2"
named a different fight in each — which breaks the only thing the tool is for. Its own
comment claimed a seed here names the same fight there. check-focus carried a third copy of
that LCG, so the two guards described the same game with different dice.

makeRng is exported and both files use it. A playthrough seed is now exactly the first
fight of simulate.mjs --seed <n>: --runs 1 --seed 2 and the playthrough give 9 rounds, 4 of
4 down, 1 dead, both.

The other half was my citation rather than the code: the command I sent omitted --mode, so
it plays both targeting arms and prints two fights. They read the last line, I quoted the
first. The summary line now names the arm.

check-focus re-recorded under the shared stream; figures move a point or two. What it buys
is that the bimodality analysis now reproduces the published means exactly — 2.31, 3.03,
0.40, 0.42 against the four rows CLEAN GROUND publishes. Under the old LCG it agreed to
within a decimal, which looked like corroboration and was two experiments landing near each
other.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
slaguru666
2026-09-13 01:11:41 +01:00
co-authored by Claude Opus 5
parent 796bb7df73
commit 8627fa3536
8 changed files with 201 additions and 146 deletions
Download Patch File Download Diff File Expand all files Collapse all files
README.md
+3 -3
View File
@@ -187,12 +187,12 @@ check-kits: OK — 25 roles, 10 trades, 218 catalogue items, every kit key resol
check-lang: OK — en.json, 1018 keys, no leaf/branch collisions
check-templates: OK — 19 templates compile
check-behaviour: OK — 76 behavioural tests
check-scenarios: OK — 12 scenario files, 79 mechanic tags, every skill named resolves against 62 catalogue entries
check-rollable: OK — 78 rolls across 12 scenario files, every one reachable at 25% or better by somebody present
check-scenarios: OK — 13 scenario files, 80 mechanic tags, every skill named resolves against 62 catalogue entries
check-rollable: OK — 79 rolls across 13 scenario files, every one reachable at 25% or better by somebody present
check-creatures: OK — 102 actor specs across 8 sources, every characteristic, skill, kit key, talent, species and style resolves, no duplicate keys
check-anatomy: OK — 5 body plans, 36 locations, d20 complete in both modes, every location drawn, every kind handled and destructible, 20 plan changes carried 432 wounds with their severity intact, 1 flyer(s) with a survivable landing
check-lethality: OK — 47 creatures, every one fighting exactly as recorded against the frozen party
check-focus: OK — focus fire measured against 30 packs, helps in all of them, 28 of them by more than their own noise
check-focus: OK — focus fire measured against 31 packs, helps in all of them, 31 of them by more than their own noise
check-bestiary: OK — 47 creatures, the document matches the game
```
<!-- guards:end -->
docs/BESTIARY.md
+6 -6
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@@ -87,12 +87,12 @@ rule for holding an action. Arranging the party so its best weapon fires last wa
measured in the simulator and came to nothing distinguishable from noise.
**What you can do is kill them one at a time.** Against a pack, every agent putting
their attacks into the same creature beats spreading them — in 30 of the
30 fights in this book whose outcome was ever in doubt, and by more
than the measurement’s own noise in 28 of them. It is worth about
**8 points** of win rate against a pair and
**12 points** against three or more; the best case in the book is
3 × Spriggan, which goes 38.9% to 55.5%. Most of that is not the ladder
their attacks into the same creature beats spreading them — in **every one** of the
31 fights in this book whose outcome was ever in doubt, without exception, and by more
than the measurement’s own noise each time. It is worth about
**7 points** of win rate against a pair and
**11 points** against three or more; the best case in the book is
3 × Kelpie, which goes 52.0% to 67.1%. Most of that is not the ladder
above: a creature that is dead stops attacking, and one on half its hit points does not
attack any less. Held at a fixed pack size the dodge ladder is worth a point or two.
docs/REVIEW_LOG.md
+44
View File
@@ -5765,3 +5765,47 @@ than the page needs to: the bestiary prints the above-noise COUNT from the artif
cannot overstate it however it moves, and what the page actually asserts outright is that
concentrating fire helps. The guard now checks exactly that, and the page rewrote itself
to "in 28 of them" on regeneration.
## R-265 — two generators, so a citation named two different fights
`tools/playthrough.mjs` exists to show a reader WHY a measured number is what it is. I
cited it to another session — read seed 2, see the wipe the 45% row is made of — and the
reproduction failed in front of them. They reported different outcomes at both seeds and
guessed the cause correctly from the outside: the two tools were not drawing from the same
stream.
They were not. `simulate.mjs` used a private mulberry32 `makeRng`; `playthrough.mjs` had
its own linear congruential generator, written to look like it. Both deterministic, both
reproducible on their own, and **"seed 2" named a different fight in each** — which
quietly breaks the only thing the tool is for. Its own comment claimed "a seed here names
the same fight there". `check-focus` had a third copy of the same LCG, so the two lethality
guards described the same game with different dice.
`makeRng` is exported, and both files use it. A playthrough seed is now exactly the first
fight of `simulate.mjs --seed <n>`: verified by running `--runs 1 --seed 2` and the
playthrough side by side — 9 rounds, 4 of 4 down, 1 dead, both.
**The other half was my citation, not the code.** The command I sent omitted `--mode`, so
it plays BOTH targeting arms and prints two fights; they read the last line, I quoted the
first. The summary line now names the arm — `→ [random] PARTY WIPED …` — so a quotation
cannot be ambiguous.
**What it cost.** check-focus re-recorded under the shared stream: 31 of 47 measurable
again, and the numbers move by a point or two each. What it buys is that every figure in
the focus baseline is now drawn from the same dice as the lethality baseline, and the
bimodality analysis below reproduces the published means **exactly** — 2.31, 3.03, 0.40 and
0.42 of 4 or 6 down, against the four rows CLEAN GROUND publishes. Under the old LCG it
agreed to within a decimal, which looked like corroboration and was really two different
experiments landing near each other.
**The finding that started it survives, and is now checkable.** The four-player cut against
three of the column is bimodal: 23.1% of fights end with nobody down, 45.0% with everybody
down, and 11% land on the published mean of 2.31. Six players against six of the column is
not bimodal at all — 10 to 18% at every outcome — so this is a property of the cut rather
than of the creature. The mechanism is a race: put one of the three down inside five rounds
and the wipe rate falls from 58.5% to 19.7%; put down two and it is zero in 2000 fights.
68% of fights reach round five with none of them down.
**The lesson is the one this log keeps recording, one layer out.** A number that cannot be
reproduced is a claim, whoever holds it. It was caught because another session tried the
citation rather than trusting it, which is exactly what a citation is for.
system.json
+1 -1
View File
@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
"id": "ringbrp",
"title": "The Custodians",
"description": "A Basic Roleplaying game of agents who cross the crossing to contain what should not be there — and who come back a little less from here each time.",
"version": "1.8.0",
"version": "1.8.1",
"compatibility": {
"minimum": 13,
"verified": "14.364"
tools/check-focus.mjs
+5 -2
View File
@@ -31,7 +31,7 @@ import { existsSync } from "node:fs";
import path from "node:path";
import { NPCS } from "./content.mjs";
import { ROSTER } from "./roster.mjs";
import { runFight, seedFor } from "./simulate.mjs";
import { runFight, seedFor, makeRng } from "./simulate.mjs";
const ROOT = path.resolve(path.dirname(new URL(import.meta.url).pathname.replace(/^\/([A-Za-z]:)/, "$1")), "..");
const BASELINE = path.join(ROOT, "tools", "focus-baseline.json");
@@ -67,7 +67,10 @@ const party = PARTY_KEYS.map(k => {
/* One generator per arm, derived from the creature's own key, so inserting a creature
cannot perturb its neighbours — R-252, learned the hard way. */
const rngFor = seed => { let s = seed >>> 0; return () => ((s = (1664525 * s + 1013904223) >>> 0) / 4294967296); };
/* R-265: the harness's own generator, not a second one of the same shape. This file used
to roll its own LCG, so the two guards described the same game with different dice and
no figure here could be reproduced from simulate.mjs. */
const rngFor = makeRng;
const winRate = (foes, targets, seed) => {
let won = 0;
for (let i = 0; i < RUNS; i++) {
tools/focus-baseline.json
+132 -129
View File
@@ -20,66 +20,66 @@
"creatures": {
"quiet_neighbours_npc": {
"n": 6,
"spread": 47.4,
"focus": 55.7,
"gain": 8.3,
"noise": 2.5
"spread": 47,
"focus": 54.9,
"gain": 7.9,
"noise": 2.7
},
"keepers": {
"n": 5,
"spread": 59.9,
"focus": 70,
"gain": 10.1,
"noise": 0.5
"spread": 60,
"focus": 69.8,
"gain": 9.8,
"noise": 2.7
},
"cleaner": {
"n": 6,
"spread": 57.8,
"focus": 71,
"gain": 13.2,
"noise": 6.8
"spread": 59.4,
"focus": 70.1,
"gain": 10.7,
"noise": 1.4
},
"cleaner_marksman": {
"n": 5,
"spread": 51.2,
"focus": 62.1,
"gain": 10.9,
"noise": 0.7
"spread": 51.8,
"focus": 61.9,
"gain": 10.1,
"noise": 0.5
},
"revenant": {
"n": 3,
"spread": 63.1,
"focus": 73.3,
"gain": 10.2,
"noise": 1.6
"spread": 61.9,
"focus": 75.4,
"gain": 13.5,
"noise": 2.2
},
"duplicate": {
"n": 5,
"spread": 58.4,
"focus": 69.3,
"gain": 10.9,
"noise": 3.2
"spread": 60.5,
"focus": 69.7,
"gain": 9.2,
"noise": 2.4
},
"barghest": {
"n": 3,
"spread": 26.2,
"focus": 36.8,
"gain": 10.5,
"noise": 2.2
"spread": 24.8,
"focus": 36.5,
"gain": 11.8,
"noise": 3.5
},
"kelpie": {
"n": 3,
"spread": 54.6,
"focus": 67.3,
"gain": 12.8,
"noise": 1.8
"spread": 52,
"focus": 67.1,
"gain": 15.1,
"noise": 2.8
},
"redcap": {
"n": 3,
"spread": 31.4,
"focus": 44,
"gain": 12.6,
"noise": 2
"spread": 31.1,
"focus": 41.9,
"gain": 10.9,
"noise": 1.8
},
"boggart": {
"n": 2,
@@ -87,18 +87,18 @@
},
"churchgrim": {
"n": 3,
"spread": 42.1,
"focus": 54.7,
"gain": 12.6,
"noise": 3.4
"spread": 43.7,
"focus": 55.7,
"gain": 12,
"noise": 2.1
},
"supporter": {
"n": 2,
"pinned": 3.8
"pinned": 4
},
"hollow_man": {
"n": 6,
"pinned": 92.4
"pinned": 91.8
},
"the_tenant": {
"n": 2,
@@ -106,57 +106,57 @@
},
"the_choir": {
"n": 6,
"pinned": 99.1
"pinned": 99.4
},
"precedent": {
"n": 3,
"spread": 59.2,
"focus": 71.1,
"gain": 11.9,
"spread": 61,
"focus": 72.2,
"gain": 11.2,
"noise": 0.7
},
"carrion_file": {
"n": 4,
"spread": 45.8,
"focus": 58.4,
"gain": 12.7,
"noise": 3.6
"spread": 45.2,
"focus": 57.3,
"gain": 12.1,
"noise": 1.3
},
"the_understudy": {
"n": 5,
"spread": 60.2,
"focus": 71.8,
"gain": 11.7,
"noise": 0.8
"spread": 61.5,
"focus": 73,
"gain": 11.5,
"noise": 6.3
},
"surveyor": {
"n": 2,
"spread": 27.5,
"focus": 34.5,
"gain": 7,
"noise": 3.7
"spread": 28.8,
"focus": 34.4,
"gain": 5.6,
"noise": 1.9
},
"quarantine_unit": {
"n": 2,
"pinned": 0.1
"pinned": 0.2
},
"cuckoo_array": {
"n": 2,
"spread": 58.3,
"spread": 58.6,
"focus": 66.2,
"gain": 7.9,
"noise": 2.1
"gain": 7.7,
"noise": 3.8
},
"long_walker": {
"n": 2,
"pinned": 0.6
"pinned": 0.1
},
"auditor": {
"n": 4,
"spread": 52,
"focus": 64.5,
"gain": 12.5,
"noise": 1.6
"spread": 49.4,
"focus": 62.3,
"gain": 12.9,
"noise": 2.5
},
"washer_ford": {
"n": 2,
@@ -167,37 +167,37 @@
"pinned": 100
},
"grindylow": {
"n": 3,
"spread": 70.6,
"focus": 80.1,
"gain": 9.4,
"noise": 2.9
"n": 4,
"spread": 30.5,
"focus": 42.1,
"gain": 11.6,
"noise": 1.5
},
"knockers": {
"n": 2,
"pinned": 100
"n": 6,
"pinned": 99.7
},
"spriggan": {
"n": 3,
"spread": 38.9,
"focus": 55.5,
"gain": 16.6,
"noise": 3.4
"spread": 42.5,
"focus": 55.4,
"gain": 12.9,
"noise": 5.7
},
"nuckelavee": {
"n": 2,
"pinned": 8.5
"pinned": 8.2
},
"hedley_kow": {
"n": 6,
"pinned": 97.6
"pinned": 97.8
},
"apple_man": {
"n": 2,
"spread": 36.8,
"focus": 42.5,
"gain": 5.7,
"noise": 7.2
"spread": 36.6,
"focus": 42.1,
"gain": 5.5,
"noise": 0.8
},
"the_committee": {
"n": 2,
@@ -205,24 +205,24 @@
},
"night_registry": {
"n": 4,
"spread": 62.1,
"focus": 76.2,
"gain": 14,
"spread": 63.1,
"focus": 73.9,
"gain": 10.7,
"noise": 2.5
},
"the_locum": {
"n": 5,
"spread": 49.3,
"focus": 61.5,
"gain": 12.2,
"noise": 2.4
"spread": 49.2,
"focus": 63.1,
"gain": 13.9,
"noise": 1.9
},
"lost_property": {
"n": 2,
"spread": 54.9,
"focus": 64.1,
"gain": 9.2,
"noise": 2.1
"spread": 54.3,
"focus": 63.2,
"gain": 8.9,
"noise": 1.3
},
"the_minutes": {
"n": 2,
@@ -230,71 +230,74 @@
},
"waiting_room": {
"n": 3,
"spread": 63.2,
"focus": 71.8,
"gain": 8.6,
"noise": 2.1
"spread": 63.4,
"focus": 70.8,
"gain": 7.4,
"noise": 0.3
},
"the_predecessor": {
"n": 4,
"spread": 55.5,
"focus": 69.2,
"gain": 13.7,
"noise": 6.7
"spread": 58.6,
"focus": 71,
"gain": 12.5,
"noise": 5.1
},
"switchboard": {
"n": 6,
"pinned": 86.1
"pinned": 86.9
},
"the_census": {
"n": 3,
"spread": 64.3,
"focus": 75.3,
"gain": 11,
"noise": 4.2
"focus": 76.5,
"gain": 12.1,
"noise": 1
},
"the_courier": {
"n": 2,
"spread": 17.5,
"focus": 25.2,
"gain": 7.7,
"noise": 4
"spread": 17.8,
"focus": 25,
"gain": 7.2,
"noise": 1.8
},
"the_relay": {
"n": 2,
"spread": 52.6,
"focus": 58,
"gain": 5.4,
"noise": 6.7
"spread": 52.7,
"focus": 58.9,
"gain": 6.2,
"noise": 2.8
},
"the_stanchion": {
"n": 2,
"pinned": 4
"pinned": 5.8
},
"the_yield": {
"n": 2,
"spread": 48.7,
"focus": 62,
"gain": 13.3,
"noise": 3.8
"spread": 46.8,
"focus": 57.8,
"gain": 11,
"noise": 1.5
},
"the_overwriter": {
"n": 3,
"spread": 62.6,
"focus": 71.7,
"gain": 9.2,
"noise": 3.9
"spread": 64.1,
"focus": 72.7,
"gain": 8.6,
"noise": 1.9
},
"the_arrears": {
"n": 2,
"pinned": 14.3
"spread": 14.7,
"focus": 21,
"gain": 6.3,
"noise": 1.5
},
"the_margin": {
"n": 5,
"spread": 46.7,
"focus": 59.6,
"gain": 12.8,
"noise": 6.2
"spread": 45.3,
"focus": 59.3,
"gain": 14.1,
"noise": 2.3
}
}
}
tools/playthrough.mjs
+5 -4
View File
@@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ import { readFileSync } from "node:fs";
import path from "node:path";
import { NPCS } from "./content.mjs";
import { ROSTER } from "./roster.mjs";
import { runFight } from "./simulate.mjs";
import { runFight, makeRng } from "./simulate.mjs";
const ROOT = path.resolve(path.dirname(new URL(import.meta.url).pathname.replace(/^\/([A-Za-z]:)/, "$1")), "..");
const base = JSON.parse(readFileSync(path.join(ROOT, "tools", "lethality-baseline.json"), "utf8"));
@@ -59,8 +59,9 @@ const rec = focus.creatures[KEY];
defect this file exists to help find. Solo also matches what check-lethality records. */
const N = Number(opt("--count", 0)) || (rec?.gain !== undefined ? rec.n : 1);
/* The same generator shape the guards use, so a seed here names the same fight there. */
const mk = seed => { let s = seed >>> 0; return () => ((s = (1664525 * s + 1013904223) >>> 0) / 4294967296); };
/* THE generator the guards use, not merely one of the same shape. A seed here names the
first fight of `simulate.mjs --seed <n>` exactly. */
const mk = makeRng;
const firstName = c => (c.name ?? "?").split(" ")[0];
const hp = c => `${Math.max(0, c.hp)}/${c.hpMax}`;
@@ -116,7 +117,7 @@ for (const mode of MODES) {
: " — party picking targets at random";
console.log(`\n${"=".repeat(78)}\n${N} × ${spec.name.toUpperCase()}${how}\n${"=".repeat(78)}`);
console.log(lines.join("\n"));
console.log(`\n → ${r.won ? "PARTY WINS" : r.wiped ? "PARTY WIPED" : "neither side finished it"}`
console.log(`\n → [${N > 1 ? mode : "solo"}] ${r.won ? "PARTY WINS" : r.wiped ? "PARTY WIPED" : "neither side finished it"}`
+ ` in ${r.rounds} rounds · ${r.partyDown} of ${party.length} down · ${r.dead} dead`);
}
tools/simulate.mjs
+5 -1
View File
@@ -98,7 +98,11 @@ export function seedFor(base, key = "") {
}
/** mulberry32 — small, fast, and seedable, which is the only property that matters. */
function makeRng(seed) {
/* R-265. Exported because anything that cites a measured fight has to draw from the same
stream to name the same fight. tools/playthrough.mjs had its own LCG, so "seed 2" meant
one fight there and a different one here, which quietly broke the only thing that tool
exists for. */
export function makeRng(seed) {
let a = seed >>> 0;
return () => {
a = (a + 0x6D2B79F5) >>> 0;