From 8f3e1ff48e2935fef55a1dd4ab08251bbe5c078e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: slaguru666 <111923774+slaguru666@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2026 00:52:09 +0100 Subject: [PATCH] CLEAN GROUND: re-pin EXPOSURE against the corrected harness MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit The table was measured at 5450521 and marked due for re-measurement, because R-264 changed what simulate.mjs measures: hit location by body plan rather than species, armour per location rather than one scalar, and flyers grounded by a lost wing. Re-run at 6f33525 with the cast, counts, runs and seed the section already declares. The finding the section exists to publish is unchanged — the understudy still cannot hurt six agents (0.55 hurt, 0.01 down, 0.0% wiped) and the curve between six and ten of the column is still the steep part. What moved is the cost of fighting the column, and the reason is the armour fix rather than anything about the column: a torso vest no longer protects a head, so every unhelmeted agent is easier to hurt. six of the column 8.6% -> 14.8% wiped, 2.38 -> 3.03 down, 1.18 -> 1.55 deaths/run ten of the column 83.5% -> 90.8% wiped, 5.69 -> 5.87 down six hollow men 0.15 -> 0.42 down, 12 -> 13 rounds Both spot-checked by running the published command rather than my own script, which is the claim the section makes to a reader. This file is timevans-c0's work and the re-measurement was its open note; it committed v0.7 first, so this lands as a separate commit on top rather than entangled with it. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 --- docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND.md | 33 ++++++++++++++++----------------- 1 file changed, 16 insertions(+), 17 deletions(-) diff --git a/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND.md b/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND.md index 0d073c0..e04ce27 100644 --- a/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND.md +++ b/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND.md @@ -582,16 +582,15 @@ who does not know it will pad Act Four to make it frightening and will be paddin encounter in the case that is incapable of being dangerous. **MEASURED.** `tools/simulate.mjs`, 2000 runs each, seed 11, against the cast of six — -Ashcroft, Bhattacharya, Renshaw, Braithwaite, Pollard, Okonkwo. Taken at commit 5450521 +Ashcroft, Bhattacharya, Renshaw, Braithwaite, Pollard, Okonkwo. Taken at commit 6f33525 with a clean tree. -> ⚠ **Correct as of 5450521, and due for re-measurement.** The harness is being reworked — -> hit location by species rather than body plan, armour per location rather than one -> scalar, flyers grounded by a lost wing — and both baselines are being re-recorded, so -> per-creature figures will move. **Re-run the command below and re-pin these numbers -> before the scenario is called convention-ready.** The shape of the finding is not in -> doubt (the understudy is harmless, the column is lethal, and the curve between six and -> ten is steep); the decimals are. +> **Re-measured at 6f33525**, after the harness was corrected: hit location by body +> plan rather than species, armour per location rather than one scalar, and flyers +> grounded by a lost wing (R-264). The finding is unchanged and the shape of the +> curve is unchanged — but the column got dearer to fight, because a torso vest no +> longer protects a head. **Six of them now wipe the party in one run in seven +> rather than one in twelve, and ten wipe it in nine runs out of ten.** ``` node tools/simulate.mjs --creature the_understudy \ @@ -600,15 +599,15 @@ node tools/simulate.mjs --creature the_understudy \ | What they fight | Hurt | Down | Wiped | Deaths/run | Median rounds | |---|---|---|---|---|---| -| **The understudy, alone** | 0.48 of 6 | 0.01 | **0.0%** | 0.00 | **2** | -| A duplicate of an agent | 0.45 of 6 | 0.05 | 0.0% | 0.01 | 2 | -| One hollow man | 0.20 of 6 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2 | -| Three hollow men | 1.15 of 6 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 6 | -| **Six hollow men** | 2.79 of 6 | 0.15 | **0.0%** | 0.01 | **12** | -| Three of the column | 1.74 of 6 | 0.30 | 0.0% | 0.11 | 5 | -| **Six of the column** | 4.54 of 6 | 2.38 | **8.6%** | 1.18 | 13 | -| **Ten of the column** | 5.94 of 6 | 5.69 | **83.5%** | 2.52 | 15 | -| Fifteen of the column | 6.00 of 6 | 6.00 | **100.0%** | 2.53 | 8 | +| **The understudy, alone** | 0.55 of 6 | 0.01 | **0.0%** | 0.00 | **2** | +| A duplicate of an agent | 0.34 of 6 | 0.04 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2 | +| One hollow man | 0.28 of 6 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2 | +| Three hollow men | 1.57 of 6 | 0.01 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 6 | +| **Six hollow men** | 3.48 of 6 | 0.42 | **0.0%** | 0.04 | **13** | +| Three of the column | 1.88 of 6 | 0.40 | 0.1% | 0.16 | 5 | +| **Six of the column** | 4.79 of 6 | 3.03 | **14.8%** | 1.55 | **14** | +| **Ten of the column** | 5.97 of 6 | 5.87 | **90.8%** | 2.75 | **13** | +| Fifteen of the column | 6.00 of 6 | 6.00 | **100.0%** | 2.68 | 7 | **Read these as a floor.** The harness does not model bleeding, Panic, Coherence, cover, range bands or fire modes, and every one of those makes a fight worse for whoever is