diff --git a/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND_PLAYTEST_9.md b/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND_PLAYTEST_9.md index 05cb10a..3ab53cb 100644 --- a/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND_PLAYTEST_9.md +++ b/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND_PLAYTEST_9.md @@ -170,3 +170,52 @@ win that, or improvised, or reached for the unsettled read-aloud. There is now a **Still untested after nine passes:** a fight the players choose; Ashcroft accepted *and* taken; a successful swap, now failed four times running; and the human run. + +--- + +## POST-PASS — the uncited surface, counted, and it is not where I said it was + +Fix 2 above asked for the other uncited figures to be audited. Done, and **the priority order +in the fix list is wrong.** Counted in `CLEAN_GROUND.md`: + +| | | +|---|---| +| Percentages in the document | **101** | +| Of those, carrying a decimal point — computed statistics rather than skill ratings | **67** | +| Cited against an artifact | **14** | +| **Computed statistics with nothing holding them** | **53** | + +The 53 are two different kinds of figure, and **the kind finding 1 was about is the safer +one**: + +- **Deterministic** — about sixteen figures: the step-5 splits, the taken/held/unsettled + families, the band widths. Enumerable exactly from `opposedContestFor` and `gradeRoll`, no + seed, no runs. These drifted, which is finding 1, but they can be re-derived in a second by + anybody who suspects them. +- **Sampled, and held by nothing at all** — **EXPOSURE's two pack tables** and the 58.7% + four-player figure. These are 2000-run simulations against the declared cast of six, and + **no baseline contains them.** + +⚠ **`lethality-baseline.json` does not cover them, which I had assumed it did.** Checked: +it measures each creature **solo**, against the frozen party +`pc_holloway, pc_okonkwo, pc_nkemdirim, pc_ferriby` — a different four agents from this +scenario's cast — and stores `{wipe, down, rounds}` per creature. The understudy's entry is +`wipe 0, down 0.05, rounds 2`. EXPOSURE's tables read *"of 6"* and fight packs of three, six +and ten. **Different party, different fights, different shape.** None of 3.48, 4.79, 5.97, +0.42, 3.03 or 58.7 appears in any baseline in `tools/`. + +**So the exposed surface is the opposite of what finding 1 suggested.** A deterministic figure +that drifts can be caught by anyone who re-derives it. **A sampled figure that drifts can only +be caught by somebody re-running the exact command against the exact cast**, and the +scenario's most consequential table — the one that decides whether a GM lets a fight happen — +is thirty such numbers with no artifact behind them. + +**And the two want different mechanisms, not the same one.** A stored baseline for a +deterministic figure is a cache of the rule, and a guard over it mostly asserts that +arithmetic has not changed; those should resolve **against the rule at check time**. Sampled +figures should resolve against a **baseline**, because re-running them is expensive and +carries noise. Recorded here as a decision rather than left as a preference. + +*Census and the `lethality-baseline.json` shape independently verified; the peer session +raised the pack-table gap and reordered these priorities, and the numbers above were counted +here rather than taken from that message.*