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Measure creatures over 2000 runs, not 200 (R-253)

Browse Source 
R-252 established that a recorded figure carried several points of slack
at 200 runs and that only more runs narrows it. This is that.

Measured by taking every creature under four different base seeds and
looking at how far the four answers sat apart, which is the noise a GM
reading the bestiary is unknowingly trusting:

                   mean spread    worst creature
  200 runs          1.28 points     11.5 points
  2000 runs         0.36 points      2.7 points

The worst case is what mattered. One creature's published wipe rate
could be eleven points from the same creature rolled with different
dice, on a figure printed in docs/BESTIARY.md for somebody to plan an
evening around. Under three now.

It corrected 19 of 47 published figures, mean 0.35 points: the arrears
6% -> 8.9%, the supporter 44% -> 46.8%, the nuckelavee 13.5% -> 16%.
Each was a sampling artefact printed as a property.

The cost is the part worth recording, because it is why this was never
done. I guessed "maybe a minute of build time" when I suggested it,
which was wrong by a factor of thirty and would have been a fair reason
to say no:

  check-lethality alone   0.29s -> 1.88s
  whole nine-guard suite           2.55s

BESTIARY.md regenerates from the baseline, so its run count follows
automatically; its header now also says the seeds are derived per
creature, since "at seed 11" stopped being the whole truth in R-252.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
slaguru666
2026-09-12 22:33:40 +01:00
co-authored by Claude Opus 5
parent 2dbea88d4b
commit 97fe2704e8
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@@ -11,40 +11,41 @@ Sorted by how much of a four-agent party each one puts on the floor, alone. **So
| | Creature | Essence | SIZ | Arm | HP | Attack | Down of 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | **Quarantine unit** | Sent to contain the same thing you were, and it got here first | 14 | 9 | 17 | Unmaker 75% | 3.69 |
| | **Long walker** | It has been coming here for a very long time and is nearly arrived | 22 | 10 | 24 | Grasping limb 80% | 3.33 |
| | **The stanchion** | Something was driven through the floor here to keep the door from shutting | 21 | 12 | 23 | Grasping limb 45% | 2.25 |
| | **Nuckelavee** | It came up out of the firth and everything it breathes on dies | 20 | 5 | 20 | Grasping limb 85% | 1.68 |
| | **The arrears** | Something was borrowed from the far side in 1968 and this is the collection | 19 | 7 | 20 | Grasping limb 80% | 1.58 |
| | **Quarantine unit** | Sent to contain the same thing you were, and it got here first | 14 | 9 | 17 | Unmaker 75% | 3.71 |
| | **Long walker** | It has been coming here for a very long time and is nearly arrived | 22 | 10 | 24 | Grasping limb 80% | 3.18 |
| | **The supporter** | The winged beast off a borough coat of arms, come down off it | 24 | 7 | 30 | Grasping limb 75% | 2.84 |
| | **The stanchion** | Something was driven through the floor here to keep the door from shutting | 21 | 12 | 23 | Grasping limb 45% | 2.29 |
| | **Nuckelavee** | It came up out of the firth and everything it breathes on dies | 20 | 5 | 20 | Grasping limb 85% | 1.70 |
| | **The arrears** | Something was borrowed from the far side in 1968 and this is the collection | 19 | 7 | 20 | Grasping limb 80% | 1.62 |
| | **Surveyor** | It is measuring the site and it will finish | 13 | 8 | 16 | Redaction lance 70% | 1.39 |
| V | **The courier** | A Vesh carrying something across, and it will not put it down | 16 | 6 | 18 | Grasping limb 80% | 1.37 |
| | **Surveyor** | It is measuring the site and it will finish | 13 | 8 | 16 | Redaction lance 70% | 1.33 |
| | **The apple tree man** | The oldest tree in the orchard, and it has been owed a drink since 1961 | 19 | 8 | 22 | Grasping limb 55% | 1.10 |
| V | **The yield** | It is here for the harvest and the harvest is annual | 18 | 5 | 18 | Grasping limb 75% | 0.78 |
| | **Cuckoo array** | A machine that has decided it is the site | 20 | 7 | 22 | Grasping limb 55% | 0.76 |
| | **Lost property** | It has been collecting for ninety years and it is not only umbrellas now | 18 | 7 | 21 | Grasping limb 60% | 0.75 |
| C | **The relay** | Cadence machinery holding one end of a crossing open | 17 | 8 | 20 | Grasping limb 55% | 0.69 |
| | **Barghest** | The black dog on the road out of the village | 15 | 3 | 16 | Grasping limb 75% | 0.48 |
| | **The apple tree man** | The oldest tree in the orchard, and it has been owed a drink since 1961 | 19 | 8 | 22 | Grasping limb 55% | 1.04 |
| | **Cuckoo array** | A machine that has decided it is the site | 20 | 7 | 22 | Grasping limb 55% | 0.78 |
| | **Lost property** | It has been collecting for ninety years and it is not only umbrellas now | 18 | 7 | 21 | Grasping limb 60% | 0.78 |
| V | **The yield** | It is here for the harvest and the harvest is annual | 18 | 5 | 18 | Grasping limb 75% | 0.72 |
| C | **The relay** | Cadence machinery holding one end of a crossing open | 17 | 8 | 20 | Grasping limb 55% | 0.60 |
| | **Barghest** | The black dog on the road out of the village | 15 | 3 | 16 | Grasping limb 75% | 0.43 |
| | **Redcap** | The small old man in the ruin, and what he dyes his hat with | 7 | 2 | 13 | Halberd 80% | 0.34 |
| | **Spriggan** | The small ugly thing guarding the barrow, until it is not small | 16 | 4 | 17 | Cudgel 55% | 0.30 |
| | **Church grim** | What was buried at the north door to keep the ground | 14 | 5 | 17 | Grasping limb 70% | 0.25 |
| | **Kelpie** | The horse standing at the water that is not a horse | 18 | 2 | 17 | Grasping limb 65% | 0.23 |
| | **Spriggan** | The small ugly thing guarding the barrow, until it is not small | 16 | 4 | 17 | Cudgel 55% | 0.29 |
| | **Church grim** | What was buried at the north door to keep the ground | 14 | 5 | 17 | Grasping limb 70% | 0.28 |
| | **Kelpie** | The horse standing at the water that is not a horse | 18 | 2 | 17 | Grasping limb 65% | 0.24 |
| V | **Precedent** | A Vesh that has already attended the incident you are about to file | 14 | 3 | 15 | Grasping limb 60% | 0.17 |
| | **The waiting room** | You will be seen shortly | 17 | 6 | 19 | Grasping limb 40% | 0.17 |
| C | **The overwriter** | It is correcting the record and it does not know the record is us | 15 | 6 | 18 | Grasping limb 35% | 0.17 |
| | **Grindylow** | What is in the still water at the bottom of the lock | 11 | 3 | 14 | Grasping limb 70% | 0.15 |
| | **Revenant** | What is left when something comes through without a body to come through in | 13 | 4 | 15 | Grasping limb 65% | 0.14 |
| V | **The census** | A Vesh counting what is on this side, and it has got to you | 13 | 4 | 15 | Grasping limb 50% | 0.14 |
| | **The auditor** | It has read the file and it has questions | 11 | 4 | 13 | Service pistol 55% | 0.10 |
| | **The night registry** | The filing that gets done after everyone goes home | 13 | 3 | 16 | Grasping limb 50% | 0.09 |
| | **Revenant** | What is left when something comes through without a body to come through in | 13 | 4 | 15 | Grasping limb 65% | 0.16 |
| V | **The census** | A Vesh counting what is on this side, and it has got to you | 13 | 4 | 15 | Grasping limb 50% | 0.15 |
| | **Grindylow** | What is in the still water at the bottom of the lock | 11 | 3 | 14 | Grasping limb 70% | 0.13 |
| | **The auditor** | It has read the file and it has questions | 11 | 4 | 13 | Service pistol 55% | 0.12 |
| C | **The overwriter** | It is correcting the record and it does not know the record is us | 15 | 6 | 18 | Grasping limb 35% | 0.12 |
| | **The predecessor** | Whoever had this desk before you never quite handed over | 12 | 2 | 14 | Service pistol 60% | 0.09 |
| | **Cleaner (marksman)** | The one holding the high ground | 12 | 0 | 12 | Marksman rifle 55% | 0.07 |
| | **The carrion file** | A case file that has been eating the cases filed next to it | 9 | 6 | 16 | Grasping limb 45% | 0.06 |
| | **The locum** | Covering a post that nobody appointed and nobody can close | 12 | 1 | 13 | Service pistol 50% | 0.06 |
| | **Duplicate (of an agent)** | The single most expensive thing a team can meet | 12 | 0 | 13 | Service pistol 50% | 0.05 |
| | **Cleaner (marksman)** | The one holding the high ground | 12 | 0 | 12 | Marksman rifle 55% | 0.08 |
| | **The night registry** | The filing that gets done after everyone goes home | 13 | 3 | 16 | Grasping limb 50% | 0.08 |
| | **Duplicate (of an agent)** | The single most expensive thing a team can meet | 12 | 0 | 13 | Service pistol 50% | 0.06 |
| | **The Keepers (waystation)** | Scavengers who bury what comes through — and the only real information network on the far side | 12 | 0 | 13 | Utility knife 55% | 0.04 |
| | **Cleaner (contractor)** | Human, armed, and working for whoever got here first | 12 | 0 | 12 | Service pistol 45% | 0.04 |
| V | **The margin** | It lives in the space around what was written down | 8 | 2 | 11 | Grasping limb 40% | 0.03 |
| | **The Quiet Neighbours** | Near-world locals who have lived beside the threshold for generations | 8 | 0 | 10 | Improvised spear 50% | 0.01 |
| | **The carrion file** | A case file that has been eating the cases filed next to it | 9 | 6 | 16 | Grasping limb 45% | 0.04 |
| | **The locum** | Covering a post that nobody appointed and nobody can close | 12 | 1 | 13 | Service pistol 50% | 0.04 |
| | **Cleaner (contractor)** | Human, armed, and working for whoever got here first | 12 | 0 | 12 | Service pistol 45% | 0.03 |
| | **The Quiet Neighbours** | Near-world locals who have lived beside the threshold for generations | 8 | 0 | 10 | Improvised spear 50% | 0.02 |
| V | **The margin** | It lives in the space around what was written down | 8 | 2 | 11 | Grasping limb 40% | 0.02 |
| | **The understudy** | It has been practising being you and it is nearly ready | 12 | 2 | 13 | Punch / kick 60% | 0.01 |
| | **Boggart** | The thing in the house that was tolerable until it was not | 5 | 0 | 9 | Punch / kick 35% | 0.00 |
| | **Hollow man** | Somebody who crossed too often and came back thinner each time | 12 | 1 | 13 | Punch / kick 55% | 0.00 |
@@ -57,7 +58,6 @@ Sorted by how much of a four-agent party each one puts on the floor, alone. **So
| C | **The committee** | It went into session in 1953 and has not risen | 12 | 2 | 15 | Punch / kick 30% | 0.00 |
| | **The minutes** | A faithful record of a meeting that has not been held | 4 | 0 | 7 | Punch / kick 10% | 0.00 |
| | **The switchboard** | It is still connecting calls and some of them are answered | 14 | 4 | 17 | Punch / kick 25% | 0.00 |
| | **The supporter** | The winged beast off a borough coat of arms, come down off it | 24 | 6 | 22 | Grasping limb 75% | — |
**V** = Vesh, **C** = Cadence. Everything else is baseline-human anatomy, including
several things that are plainly not human-shaped — see the note at the foot.
@@ -68,6 +68,22 @@ several things that are plainly not human-shaped — see the note at the foot.
Older than the department and largely uninterested in it. Most of these are arrangements rather than fights, and the arrangement is nearly always cheaper.
### The supporter
*The winged beast off a borough coat of arms, come down off it*
> **Four-legged, winged** — as the four-legged, plus wings. **Disable either wing and it cannot fly**, which is the fight the players can win. Wings are 6 faces of 20 at range and 2 in melee.
| STR | CON | SIZ | INT | POW | DEX | Armour | HP | Major wound | Locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 36 | 24 | 8 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 30 | 15 | 7 |
**Attacks with** Grasping limb at 75%, 1d6+1 · **dodges** 35%
**ARGENT AND GULES.** While it stands on ground the borough holds, it takes half damage from anything the borough owns — which includes the department's vehicles and any weapon signed out of Stores. WING IT.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 2.84 of 4 down, 46.8% wiped, 14 rounds.*
### Nuckelavee
*It came up out of the firth and everything it breathes on dies*
@@ -80,7 +96,7 @@ Older than the department and largely uninterested in it. Most of these are arra
**THE BLIGHT.** Everything within ten metres withers — crops, stock, and on a failed CONx5 each round, people, who take 1 point that armour does not stop. It will not cross running fresh water and it knows that about itself, which makes every stream on the map a tactical feature.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 1.68 of 4 down, 16.5% wiped, 7 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 1.70 of 4 down, 16% wiped, 7 rounds.*
### The apple tree man
@@ -94,7 +110,7 @@ Older than the department and largely uninterested in it. Most of these are arra
**THE RECKONING.** It knows what is buried in its orchard, all of it, and will say so in exchange for the debt being paid — cider poured on the roots, and somebody has to sing. It cannot be made to answer any other way; threats bore it, being nineteen feet of apple wood.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 1.10 of 4 down, 2.5% wiped, 12 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 1.04 of 4 down, 2.1% wiped, 10 rounds.*
### Barghest
@@ -110,7 +126,7 @@ Older than the department and largely uninterested in it. Most of these are arra
**THE SUMMONS.** Anyone who meets its eyes must make a POWx5 roll or know, with certainty and no evidence, the manner of their own death; failure costs 1 Coherence and the knowledge does not go away. It attacks only when the person it is following is alone and has stopped being frightened.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.48 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 4 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.43 of 4 down, 0.4% wiped, 4 rounds.*
### Redcap
@@ -124,7 +140,7 @@ Older than the department and largely uninterested in it. Most of these are arra
**NOT TIRED.** It ignores the cumulative defence penalty entirely — every parry it makes is at full skill. Scripture read aloud drives it off; the department keeps a laminated card and does not discuss why it works.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.34 of 4 down, 1% wiped, 3 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.34 of 4 down, 0.1% wiped, 3 rounds.*
### Spriggan
@@ -138,7 +154,7 @@ Older than the department and largely uninterested in it. Most of these are arra
**WHAT IT REALLY IS.** The characteristics above are the LARGE form. Until the barrow is disturbed run it at SIZ 6 and STR 8, harmless and mostly comic; the change is one round and there is no roll to resist it.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.30 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 4 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.29 of 4 down, 0.1% wiped, 4 rounds.*
### Church grim
@@ -154,7 +170,7 @@ Older than the department and largely uninterested in it. Most of these are arra
**THE GROUND IS MINE.** Any agent who digs, opens, or removes something from its ground takes 1d6 with no roll to avoid and no armour, every round they continue. It has no interest in anybody who leaves.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.25 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 4 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.28 of 4 down, 0.1% wiped, 4 rounds.*
### Kelpie
@@ -170,7 +186,7 @@ Older than the department and largely uninterested in it. Most of these are arra
**ADHESION.** Anyone who touches it is stuck fast — a STRx5 roll to pull free, at −20% per round already stuck, and it walks into the water at a stroll. It does not fight; drowning is its whole method, so run the ASPHYXIA rules and not a combat.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.23 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 3 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.24 of 4 down, 0.1% wiped, 3 rounds.*
### Grindylow
@@ -184,7 +200,7 @@ Older than the department and largely uninterested in it. Most of these are arra
**THE PULL.** Against a target in water it attacks at +40% and a hit means grappled, not damaged; a grappled target is under and rolling CONx5 each round to keep breathing. Out of water it is slow, half-blind and frankly pitiable — the entire fight is about whether anybody is standing where they should not be.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.15 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 3 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.13 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 3 rounds.*
### Boggart
@@ -198,7 +214,7 @@ Older than the department and largely uninterested in it. Most of these are arra
**THE WRONG NAME.** Once a scene it addresses an agent by a name that is not theirs but is on a document somewhere; that agent loses 1 Coherence and every roll against the boggart is at −20% for the rest of the scene, because it plainly knows something you do not. Naming it correctly ends it.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.00 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 1 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.00 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 2 rounds.*
### The washer at the ford
@@ -226,7 +242,7 @@ Older than the department and largely uninterested in it. Most of these are arra
**THE SHORTER WAY.** Every ten minutes of following, each agent rolls Navigate; on a failure the party is one step further into water, bog or a drop they cannot see. Three failures and somebody is in it.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.00 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 2 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.00 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 1 rounds.*
### Knockers
@@ -258,20 +274,6 @@ Older than the department and largely uninterested in it. Most of these are arra
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.00 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 2 rounds.*
### The supporter
*The winged beast off a borough coat of arms, come down off it*
> **Four-legged, winged** — as the four-legged, plus wings. **Disable either wing and it cannot fly**, which is the fight the players can win. Wings are 6 faces of 20 at range and 2 in melee.
| STR | CON | SIZ | INT | POW | DEX | Armour | HP | Major wound | Locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 20 | 24 | 8 | 17 | 12 | 6 | 22 | 11 | 7 |
**Attacks with** Grasping limb at 75%, 1d6+1 · **dodges** 35%
**ARGENT AND GULES.** While it stands on ground the borough holds, it takes half damage from anything the borough owns — which includes the department's vehicles and any weapon signed out of Stores. WING IT.
---
## Horror
@@ -290,7 +292,7 @@ The department's own. Every one is a piece of administration that kept going aft
**UNCLAIMED.** Anything an agent sets down in the room is the room's after one round, and cannot be picked up again without a STR roll against STR 20. That includes a rifle put down to open a door, and it will include a person who sits down.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.75 of 4 down, 1.5% wiped, 8 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.78 of 4 down, 0.9% wiped, 8 rounds.*
### The waiting room
@@ -306,20 +308,6 @@ The department's own. Every one is a piece of administration that kept going aft
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.17 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 6 rounds.*
### The night registry
*The filing that gets done after everyone goes home*
| STR | CON | SIZ | INT | POW | DEX | Armour | HP | Major wound | Locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 18 | 13 | 16 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 8 | 7 |
**Attacks with** Grasping limb at 50%, 1d6+1 · **dodges** 25%
**CORRECTLY FILED.** Anything left in the building overnight is put where it belongs — which is not where anybody left it, and for a person means the personnel files. An agent who sleeps in the building rolls POWx5; on a failure they wake up on the record as staff from 1961, with that year's clearances and none of their own.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.09 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 3 rounds.*
### The predecessor
*Whoever had this desk before you never quite handed over*
@@ -332,7 +320,21 @@ The department's own. Every one is a piece of administration that kept going aft
**HANDOVER.** Once a round it performs a task that agent was about to perform, correctly and first. Mechanically that agent loses their action; the thing still gets done, which is what makes it hard to object to.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.09 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 3 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.09 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 2 rounds.*
### The night registry
*The filing that gets done after everyone goes home*
| STR | CON | SIZ | INT | POW | DEX | Armour | HP | Major wound | Locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 18 | 13 | 16 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 8 | 7 |
**Attacks with** Grasping limb at 50%, 1d6+1 · **dodges** 25%
**CORRECTLY FILED.** Anything left in the building overnight is put where it belongs — which is not where anybody left it, and for a person means the personnel files. An agent who sleeps in the building rolls POWx5; on a failure they wake up on the record as staff from 1961, with that year's clearances and none of their own.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.08 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 3 rounds.*
### The carrion file
@@ -346,7 +348,7 @@ The department's own. Every one is a piece of administration that kept going aft
**AMENDMENT.** Once a round it may amend one fact about one agent who has read from it — a qualification, a posting, a next of kin — and the amendment is TRUE. Mechanically: it removes one trained skill, or one talent, or one relationship, permanently, and the agent gets no roll.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.06 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 5 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.04 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 5 rounds.*
### The locum
@@ -360,7 +362,7 @@ The department's own. Every one is a piece of administration that kept going aft
**OF COURSE.** It may assert one credential per scene and it is believed — by NPCs automatically, and by an agent unless they beat it on Insight against its Persuade. It is not hostile until challenged in front of witnesses, at which point it becomes extremely hostile and extremely plausible about it.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.06 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 2 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.04 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 2 rounds.*
### The understudy
@@ -482,7 +484,7 @@ The far side, and what it sends. This is where the non-human anatomies are: a Ve
**STERILISATION ORDER.** If the team refuses to withdraw, the unit begins a countdown the GM tracks openly — six rounds — after which the site is rendered, and everyone still in it is in a BLAST of 6d6 with a radius of the whole location. They can be argued down with a higher authorisation, which is a Borrowed Authority problem.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 3.69 of 4 down, 85.5% wiped, 8 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 3.71 of 4 down, 88.8% wiped, 8 rounds.*
### Long walker
@@ -496,7 +498,7 @@ The far side, and what it sends. This is where the non-human anatomies are: a Ve
**DISTANCE MEANS NOTHING.** It cannot be outrun on foot, ever; only a vehicle, a crossing, or a stepping disc breaks contact. Damage slows it and does not stop it: every 10 points it takes costs it one round of movement and nothing else.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 3.33 of 4 down, 68% wiped, 15 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 3.18 of 4 down, 64.1% wiped, 15 rounds.*
### The stanchion
@@ -510,7 +512,7 @@ The far side, and what it sends. This is where the non-human anatomies are: a Ve
**DRIVEN.** While it stands the crossing beside it cannot be closed by any means, including the Quiet Arts. It has 12 natural armour, so small arms do literally nothing and the party will need the cutter, the demolition charge, or an idea.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 2.25 of 4 down, 26% wiped, 19 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 2.29 of 4 down, 31.9% wiped, 19 rounds.*
### The arrears
@@ -524,7 +526,21 @@ The far side, and what it sends. This is where the non-human anatomies are: a Ve
**THE PRINCIPAL.** It knows precisely what the department took and from whom; the debt is real and the file confirming it exists in the Registry. Settling it ends the encounter instantly and costs the department something the players will not want to give.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 1.58 of 4 down, 7.5% wiped, 10 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 1.62 of 4 down, 8.9% wiped, 11 rounds.*
### Surveyor
*It is measuring the site and it will finish*
| STR | CON | SIZ | INT | POW | DEX | Armour | HP | Major wound | Locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 18 | 13 | 17 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 16 | 8 | 7 |
**Attacks with** Redaction lance at 70%, 1d4+6 · **dodges** 50%
**ALREADY SURVEYED.** It knows the ground perfectly: no cover applies against it, and it may not be ambushed. Damaging its instrument makes it leave; damaging the body does not, because there are more bodies.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 1.39 of 4 down, 4.8% wiped, 10 rounds.*
### The courier
@@ -540,21 +556,21 @@ The far side, and what it sends. This is where the non-human anatomies are: a Ve
**THE CONSIGNMENT.** Everything it carries is in the single grasp limb and it will not use that limb to fight while it is carrying — so it attacks with the brace limb at HALF the rating above until the consignment is taken from it. Disable the grasp limb and it drops the consignment and fights properly, at full rating and furious.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 1.37 of 4 down, 6% wiped, 9 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 1.37 of 4 down, 6.6% wiped, 9 rounds.*
### Surveyor
### Cuckoo array
*It is measuring the site and it will finish*
*A machine that has decided it is the site*
| STR | CON | SIZ | INT | POW | DEX | Armour | HP | Major wound | Locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 18 | 13 | 17 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 16 | 8 | 7 |
| 20 | 24 | 20 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 11 | 7 |
**Attacks with** Redaction lance at 70%, 1d4+6 · **dodges** 50%
**Attacks with** Grasping limb at 55%, 1d6+1 · **dodges** 5%
**ALREADY SURVEYED.** It knows the ground perfectly: no cover applies against it, and it may not be ambushed. Damaging its instrument makes it leave; damaging the body does not, because there are more bodies.
**HOUSE RULES.** Any device or vehicle brought into the building answers to it within one round unless it is mechanical, sealed, or older than the array — which is why the department still issues an oil lantern and a brass compass.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 1.33 of 4 down, 7% wiped, 11 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.78 of 4 down, 1.5% wiped, 8 rounds.*
### The yield
@@ -570,21 +586,7 @@ The far side, and what it sends. This is where the non-human anatomies are: a Ve
**THE COUNT.** It takes four. Not five, not three — if the party stops it taking a fourth it will keep working until it has one, and it will not leave without them.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.78 of 4 down, 1% wiped, 6 rounds.*
### Cuckoo array
*A machine that has decided it is the site*
| STR | CON | SIZ | INT | POW | DEX | Armour | HP | Major wound | Locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 24 | 20 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 11 | 7 |
**Attacks with** Grasping limb at 55%, 1d6+1 · **dodges** 5%
**HOUSE RULES.** Any device or vehicle brought into the building answers to it within one round unless it is mechanical, sealed, or older than the array — which is why the department still issues an oil lantern and a brass compass.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.76 of 4 down, 1% wiped, 8 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.72 of 4 down, 0.9% wiped, 6 rounds.*
### The relay
@@ -600,7 +602,7 @@ The far side, and what it sends. This is where the non-human anatomies are: a Ve
**WHILE QUORATE.** The crossing holds while three or more bodies stand. Take it to two and the crossing begins to close over a minute; take it to one and it closes now, with whatever is halfway through still halfway through.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.69 of 4 down, 0.5% wiped, 11 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.60 of 4 down, 0.5% wiped, 10 rounds.*
### Precedent
@@ -618,22 +620,6 @@ The far side, and what it sends. This is where the non-human anatomies are: a Ve
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.17 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 3 rounds.*
### The overwriter
*It is correcting the record and it does not know the record is us*
> **Cadence** — five bodies, no vital, no head. Cannot be dropped; each body lost costs it −10% to everything.
| STR | CON | SIZ | INT | POW | DEX | Armour | HP | Major wound | Locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 20 | 15 | 22 | 25 | 12 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 5 |
**Attacks with** Grasping limb at 35%, 1d6+1 · **dodges** 30%
**THE CORRECTION.** Once a round it corrects one FACT the party is relying on — an address, a name in a file, which door the key opens, who signed the warrant. The correction is retroactive and true, and no roll resists it; the party simply finds the world has always been slightly different.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.17 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 6 rounds.*
### The census
*A Vesh counting what is on this side, and it has got to you*
@@ -648,7 +634,7 @@ The far side, and what it sends. This is where the non-human anatomies are: a Ve
**ENUMERATED.** When it counts an agent — one round, no roll, it simply looks — that agent is on a list on the far side. Thereafter anything from the far side knows where they are, permanently, and the department cannot get them off it.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.14 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 4 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.15 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 4 rounds.*
### The auditor
@@ -662,7 +648,23 @@ The far side, and what it sends. This is where the non-human anatomies are: a Ve
**THE DISCREPANCY.** It names one thing an agent has actually done this case — a Quiet Art used in front of a witness, a credential stretched, a body left. That agent rolls POWx5; on a failure the discrepancy is entered and they lose 1 Coherence permanently to it, because it is now on the record and the record is real.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.10 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 3 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.12 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 3 rounds.*
### The overwriter
*It is correcting the record and it does not know the record is us*
> **Cadence** — five bodies, no vital, no head. Cannot be dropped; each body lost costs it −10% to everything.
| STR | CON | SIZ | INT | POW | DEX | Armour | HP | Major wound | Locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 20 | 15 | 22 | 25 | 12 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 5 |
**Attacks with** Grasping limb at 35%, 1d6+1 · **dodges** 30%
**THE CORRECTION.** Once a round it corrects one FACT the party is relying on — an address, a name in a file, which door the key opens, who signed the warrant. The correction is retroactive and true, and no roll resists it; the party simply finds the world has always been slightly different.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.12 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 6 rounds.*
### The margin
@@ -678,7 +680,7 @@ The far side, and what it sends. This is where the non-human anatomies are: a Ve
**NOT MENTIONED.** It can only be perceived by an agent who is NOT currently looking for it; anybody actively searching rolls Spot at −50%, and anybody who has stopped searching sees it immediately. It steals documents and it does not steal anything else.
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.03 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 3 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.02 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 3 rounds.*
---
@@ -696,7 +698,7 @@ People, mostly — contractors, locals, and the ones who were already here.
**Attacks with** Grasping limb at 65%, 1d6+1 · **dodges** 40%
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.14 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 3 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.16 of 4 down, 0.1% wiped, 3 rounds.*
### Cleaner (marksman)
@@ -708,7 +710,7 @@ People, mostly — contractors, locals, and the ones who were already here.
**Attacks with** Marksman rifle at 55%, 1d10+2 · **dodges** 35%
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.07 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 2 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.08 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 2 rounds.*
### Duplicate (of an agent)
@@ -720,7 +722,7 @@ People, mostly — contractors, locals, and the ones who were already here.
**Attacks with** Service pistol at 50%, 1d8+2 · **dodges** 45%
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.05 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 2 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.06 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 2 rounds.*
### The Keepers (waystation)
@@ -744,7 +746,7 @@ People, mostly — contractors, locals, and the ones who were already here.
**Attacks with** Service pistol at 45%, 1d8+2 · **dodges** 40%
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.04 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 2 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.03 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 2 rounds.*
### The Quiet Neighbours
@@ -756,14 +758,15 @@ People, mostly — contractors, locals, and the ones who were already here.
**Attacks with** Improvised spear at 50%, 1d8+1 · **dodges** 68%
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.01 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 2 rounds.*
*Measured alone against the frozen party: 0.02 of 4 down, 0% wiped, 2 rounds.*
---
## Reading the measured column
Every figure comes from `tools/lethality-baseline.json`, measured over 200 runs at seed
11 against a frozen party of 4: holloway, okonkwo, nkemdirim, ferriby.
Every figure comes from `tools/lethality-baseline.json`, measured over 2000 runs
at seed 11, one sequence derived per creature so no two share a draw,
against a frozen party of 4: holloway, okonkwo, nkemdirim, ferriby.
`check-lethality` refuses the build if any of them drifts, so these cannot go stale.
**They are solo figures and they are not a prediction.** Two things move them hard:
docs/REVIEW_LOG.md
+36
View File
@@ -5217,3 +5217,39 @@ has always said so:
`seedMode` is recorded alongside the numbers, because changing how a seed is derived
moves every row without changing `SEED` itself, and a baseline from the old scheme would
otherwise have been compared against this one silently and wrongly. It is refused now.
### R-253. Ten times the runs, for two and a half seconds
R-252 established that a creature's recorded figure carried several points of slack at
200 runs, and that only more runs narrows it. So: 2000.
Measured by taking every creature under four different base seeds and looking at how far
the four answers sat apart. That spread IS the noise, and it is the thing a GM reading
the bestiary is unknowingly trusting:
| | mean spread | worst creature |
|---|---|---|
| 200 runs | 1.28 points | **11.5 points** |
| 2000 runs | 0.36 points | **2.7 points** |
The worst case is the number that mattered. At 200 runs one creature's published wipe
rate could be eleven points away from the same creature measured with different dice —
on a figure printed in `docs/BESTIARY.md` for a GM to plan an evening around. It is now
under three.
What it corrected in the published book: 19 of 47 figures moved, mean 0.35 points, and
the arrears went 6% → 8.9%, the supporter 44% → 46.8%, the nuckelavee 13.5% → 16%. Each
of those was a sampling artefact being printed as a property.
The cost is the part worth recording, because it is the reason this was never done. I
had guessed "maybe a minute of build time" when suggesting it, which was wrong by a
factor of thirty and would have been a fair reason to refuse:
```
check-lethality alone 0.29s -> 1.88s
the whole nine-guard suite 2.55s
```
Ten times the statistical work for one and a half seconds. The guard had been carrying a
tolerance of six points, and then an exact comparison against figures that could move
eleven, for want of a measurement that cost less than the time to read this paragraph.
system.json
+1 -1
View File
@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
"id": "ringbrp",
"title": "The Custodians",
"description": "A Basic Roleplaying game of agents who cross the crossing to contain what should not be there — and who come back a little less from here each time.",
"version": "1.7.7",
"version": "1.7.8",
"compatibility": {
"minimum": 13,
"verified": "14.364"
tools/bestiary.mjs
+4 -2
View File
@@ -169,8 +169,10 @@ for (const tag of TAG_ORDER) {
/* --- the caveats, which matter more than the numbers --- */
md += `## Reading the measured column\n\n`
+ `Every figure comes from \`tools/lethality-baseline.json\`, measured over ${base.runs} runs at seed\n`
+ `${base.seed} against a frozen party of ${base.party.length}: ${base.party.map(k => k.replace(/^pc_/, "")).join(", ")}.\n`
+ `Every figure comes from \`tools/lethality-baseline.json\`, measured over ${base.runs} runs\n`
+ `at seed ${base.seed}${base.seedMode === "per-creature"
? ", one sequence derived per creature so no two share a draw," : ","}\n`
+ `against a frozen party of ${base.party.length}: ${base.party.map(k => k.replace(/^pc_/, "")).join(", ")}.\n`
+ `\`check-lethality\` refuses the build if any of them drifts, so these cannot go stale.\n\n`
+ `**They are solo figures and they are not a prediction.** Two things move them hard:\n\n`
+ `- **How many there are.** One Keeper is nothing; six are a 36% chance of a wiped party.\n`
tools/check-lethality.mjs
+1 -1
View File
@@ -44,7 +44,7 @@ const VERBOSE = argv.includes("--verbose");
/* Frozen. Changing this invalidates every recorded number, so if it ever must change,
change it in the same commit as a --update and say why in the message. */
const PARTY_KEYS = ["pc_holloway", "pc_okonkwo", "pc_nkemdirim", "pc_ferriby"];
const RUNS = 200;
const RUNS = 2000;
const SEED = 11;
/* Recorded alongside the numbers, because changing HOW the seed is derived changes every
row without changing SEED itself — a baseline taken under the old shared-seed scheme
tools/lethality-baseline.json
+58 -58
View File
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@
"pc_nkemdirim",
"pc_ferriby"
],
"runs": 200,
"runs": 2000,
"seed": 11,
"seedMode": "per-creature",
"creatures": {
@@ -22,36 +22,36 @@
},
"cleaner": {
"wipe": 0,
"down": 0.02,
"down": 0.03,
"rounds": 2
},
"cleaner_marksman": {
"wipe": 0,
"down": 0.06,
"down": 0.08,
"rounds": 2
},
"revenant": {
"wipe": 0,
"wipe": 0.1,
"down": 0.16,
"rounds": 4
"rounds": 3
},
"duplicate": {
"wipe": 0,
"down": 0.07,
"rounds": 3
"down": 0.06,
"rounds": 2
},
"barghest": {
"wipe": 0,
"down": 0.39,
"wipe": 0.4,
"down": 0.43,
"rounds": 4
},
"kelpie": {
"wipe": 0,
"down": 0.23,
"wipe": 0.1,
"down": 0.24,
"rounds": 3
},
"redcap": {
"wipe": 0,
"wipe": 0.1,
"down": 0.34,
"rounds": 3
},
@@ -61,13 +61,13 @@
"rounds": 2
},
"churchgrim": {
"wipe": 0,
"down": 0.33,
"wipe": 0.1,
"down": 0.28,
"rounds": 4
},
"supporter": {
"wipe": 44,
"down": 2.81,
"wipe": 46.8,
"down": 2.84,
"rounds": 14
},
"hollow_man": {
@@ -87,7 +87,7 @@
},
"precedent": {
"wipe": 0,
"down": 0.16,
"down": 0.17,
"rounds": 3
},
"carrion_file": {
@@ -97,38 +97,38 @@
},
"the_understudy": {
"wipe": 0,
"down": 0,
"rounds": 3
"down": 0.01,
"rounds": 2
},
"surveyor": {
"wipe": 5.5,
"down": 1.44,
"wipe": 4.8,
"down": 1.39,
"rounds": 10
},
"quarantine_unit": {
"wipe": 88.5,
"down": 3.73,
"wipe": 88.8,
"down": 3.71,
"rounds": 8
},
"cuckoo_array": {
"wipe": 3,
"down": 0.68,
"wipe": 1.5,
"down": 0.78,
"rounds": 8
},
"long_walker": {
"wipe": 62.5,
"down": 3.13,
"wipe": 64.1,
"down": 3.18,
"rounds": 15
},
"auditor": {
"wipe": 0,
"down": 0.09,
"down": 0.12,
"rounds": 3
},
"washer_ford": {
"wipe": 0,
"down": 0,
"rounds": 2
"rounds": 1
},
"lantern_man": {
"wipe": 0,
@@ -137,7 +137,7 @@
},
"grindylow": {
"wipe": 0,
"down": 0.15,
"down": 0.13,
"rounds": 3
},
"knockers": {
@@ -146,13 +146,13 @@
"rounds": 2
},
"spriggan": {
"wipe": 0,
"down": 0.28,
"wipe": 0.1,
"down": 0.29,
"rounds": 4
},
"nuckelavee": {
"wipe": 13.5,
"down": 1.64,
"wipe": 16,
"down": 1.7,
"rounds": 7
},
"hedley_kow": {
@@ -161,8 +161,8 @@
"rounds": 2
},
"apple_man": {
"wipe": 2.5,
"down": 1.02,
"wipe": 2.1,
"down": 1.04,
"rounds": 10
},
"the_committee": {
@@ -172,18 +172,18 @@
},
"night_registry": {
"wipe": 0,
"down": 0.07,
"down": 0.08,
"rounds": 3
},
"the_locum": {
"wipe": 0,
"down": 0.05,
"down": 0.04,
"rounds": 2
},
"lost_property": {
"wipe": 1,
"down": 0.74,
"rounds": 7
"wipe": 0.9,
"down": 0.78,
"rounds": 8
},
"the_minutes": {
"wipe": 0,
@@ -192,12 +192,12 @@
},
"waiting_room": {
"wipe": 0,
"down": 0.18,
"down": 0.17,
"rounds": 6
},
"the_predecessor": {
"wipe": 0,
"down": 0.12,
"down": 0.09,
"rounds": 2
},
"switchboard": {
@@ -207,42 +207,42 @@
},
"the_census": {
"wipe": 0,
"down": 0.12,
"down": 0.15,
"rounds": 4
},
"the_courier": {
"wipe": 7.5,
"down": 1.39,
"wipe": 6.6,
"down": 1.37,
"rounds": 9
},
"the_relay": {
"wipe": 0,
"down": 0.59,
"wipe": 0.5,
"down": 0.6,
"rounds": 10
},
"the_stanchion": {
"wipe": 31,
"down": 2.17,
"rounds": 18
"wipe": 31.9,
"down": 2.29,
"rounds": 19
},
"the_yield": {
"wipe": 1.5,
"down": 0.7,
"wipe": 0.9,
"down": 0.72,
"rounds": 6
},
"the_overwriter": {
"wipe": 0,
"down": 0.09,
"down": 0.12,
"rounds": 6
},
"the_arrears": {
"wipe": 6,
"down": 1.48,
"rounds": 10
"wipe": 8.9,
"down": 1.62,
"rounds": 11
},
"the_margin": {
"wipe": 0,
"down": 0.01,
"down": 0.02,
"rounds": 3
}
}