R-290: check-outcomes — a beat that names a roll must say what it does

Desk pass 7's finding, turned into the nineteenth guard. check-rollable asks
whether a skill is reachable at 25% by the declared cast; pass 5 found that
is rollability, not competence; pass 7 found it is also not coverage. A beat
could be reachable, well-rated and silent about every band but the one the GM
improvises, and the whole suite stayed green.

tools/outcome-coverage.mjs measures. Beats are located structurally — the
bullet that owns the tag and its children, ending at the next bullet of the
same or shallower indent or the next heading, because R-287 is what an
unbounded scope does. Band widths are counted by grading all 100 results
through gradeRoll, never by arithmetic on fumbleStart, which is off by one
and was written wrongly twice this session before being caught. Ratings come
from the declared cast via R-286's reader, best-in-cast per skill, because
that is the die a table actually rolls.

tools/check-outcomes.mjs holds it, in two kinds:

  RATCHET — stated failure/fumble/special counts may improve and may not
  regress; unwritten-band exposure may fall and may not rise. --update
  re-records these, because freezing them would make every improvement fail.

  HARD CLAIMS — read from what is measured NOW, never from the baseline, so
  --update cannot silence them: a floor of 18 beats (check-cited once passed
  with zero citations), no beat bare of every band, every scope structurally
  bounded and none over 5% of the file, no unparseable tag, no beat naming a
  skill the cast has no rating for.

Verified by breaking it: a stripped beat, a broken tag regex, an unparseable
tag and a removed failure case each turn it red; the file and baseline were
restored byte-identical after each; and --update with a bare beat present
re-records the baseline and still fails.

Two bare beats found and filled while building it — the six at the back, and
the Insight that is deliberately indistinguishable on a success and a miss,
which now says so rather than saying nothing. Coverage 16/21 failure, 5
fumble, 4 special at the start; 18/21, 6 and 6 now.

The three figures are cited against the artifact rather than typed, which was
the peer session's condition and the right one: pass 7 hand-counted 22 beats
where there are 21 (Act Three's warning QUOTES a beat, and a hand count reads
the quotation as one — R-286 in the other direction), and its other three
counts were stale within one commit.

Its first catch was its author: the STATUS line announcing this guard
contained a beat-shaped tag and was counted as a beat. The reader was not
changed — prose shaped like a beat is what this file is for — and the error
message now names the fenced block as the place to write an example. Minutes
later check-cited refused a citation-shaped comment in the post-pass about
citations. Three readers, three authors describing their own format inside
it, each caught by a guard built for a different pass.

CLEAN GROUND v0.18. npm run check: 19 guards pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

package.json

@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@
     "play": "node tools/playthrough.mjs",
     "mj": "node tools/mj-queue.mjs",
     "simulate": "node tools/simulate.mjs",
-    "check": "bun tools/check-rules.mjs && bun tools/check-kits.mjs && bun tools/check-lang.mjs && bun tools/check-templates.mjs && bun tools/check-behaviour.mjs && bun tools/check-scenarios.mjs && bun tools/check-rollable.mjs && bun tools/check-creatures.mjs && bun tools/check-powers.mjs && bun tools/check-anatomy.mjs && bun tools/check-lethality.mjs && bun tools/check-focus.mjs && bun tools/check-firstblood.mjs && bun tools/check-attackers.mjs && bun tools/check-fight-tail.mjs && bun tools/check-cited.mjs && bun tools/check-handouts.mjs && bun tools/check-bestiary.mjs",
+    "check": "bun tools/check-rules.mjs && bun tools/check-kits.mjs && bun tools/check-lang.mjs && bun tools/check-templates.mjs && bun tools/check-behaviour.mjs && bun tools/check-scenarios.mjs && bun tools/check-rollable.mjs && bun tools/check-outcomes.mjs && bun tools/check-creatures.mjs && bun tools/check-powers.mjs && bun tools/check-anatomy.mjs && bun tools/check-lethality.mjs && bun tools/check-focus.mjs && bun tools/check-firstblood.mjs && bun tools/check-attackers.mjs && bun tools/check-fight-tail.mjs && bun tools/check-cited.mjs && bun tools/check-handouts.mjs && bun tools/check-bestiary.mjs",
     "test": "bun run check",
     "readme": "bun tools/update-readme.mjs"
   },