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CLEAN GROUND v0.10: EXPOSURE reframed on the first disabling blow

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The old EXPOSURE paragraph read the fight at round five and quoted bucket
figures no guard held. Round five is where the outcome becomes legible; round
two is where it is decided. Reframed on the first disabling blow and cited to
tools/first-blood-baseline.json, so every figure in the paragraph is one the
build re-measures:

  cut   50.3% first blood at mean round 1.8, 25.5% vs 65.5% wipes, swing 40
  line  54.1% at round 1.3, 7.8% vs 23.2%, swing 15.4

An earlier draft carried 43 for the cut swing from a single seed. Three seeds
give 40.0. The note stays in the document.

Also adds a Casting coupling warning: the declared cast in the `cast:` marker
is load-bearing on check-rollable and check-firstblood, and re-casting
invalidates the recorded swing. Verified rather than assumed — swapping
braithwaite for agyeman in the marker fails both guards and the build, and
check-firstblood names the fix:

  "The recorded swing describes the old cast; re-record with --update,
   do not revert the cast."

npm run check: 13 guards, exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
slaguru666
2026-09-13 09:50:07 +01:00
co-authored by Claude Opus 5
parent 60995b28c2
commit a0d15ad7a9
1 changed files with 33 additions and 6 deletions
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docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND.md
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@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@
| | |
|---|---|
| **Version** | **v0.9**, 13 September 2026 |
| **Version** | **v0.10**, 13 September 2026 |
| **Can it be run?** | **Yes, from this document alone.** A GM with this file and the compendium can run it end to end. |
| **Is it convention-ready?** | **No.** It has never been played by human beings, and there is no print pack. |
| **Playtesting** | Three desk passes, all fixes applied: `CLEAN_GROUND_PLAYTEST_1.md` (GM chair, seed 4271), `_2.md` (Act Four stress, seed 9314), `_3.md` (player chair, contrarian, seed 5580). Twenty-three fixes plus one post-pass. |
@@ -724,11 +724,26 @@ losing. Both of the first two are live in this scenario.
something. This row is not, and a GM who reads "2.31" as "a bruising fight" is reading
the one outcome the table is least likely to deliver.
**It is decided by round five.** If the party puts even one of the three down in the
first five rounds the wipe rate falls from **58.5% to 19.7%**; if they put down two it is
**zero wipes in the 84 fights that got there**. They usually cannot — 68% of fights reach
round five with none of the three down. A dead one stops attacking and a half-dead one
does not, so the fight either tips early or grinds them flat.
**It is decided by the first disabling blow, and that lands in round two.** Both sides
go down at half their maximum hit points — the same rule in both directions — so every
disable removes an attacker, thins the return fire, and makes the next disable likelier.
Nothing pulls the fight back toward the middle once it has tipped. **Round five is where
that becomes legible; round two is where it happens.**
| Measured | Party strikes first | Then wipes | If it does not |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Three of the column vs the cut** | 50.3% (mean round 1.8) | **25.5%** | **65.5%** — a swing of **40** |
| Six of the column vs the full six | 54.1% (mean round 1.3) | 7.8% | 23.2% — a swing of 15.4 |
First blood is very nearly a coin toss, and in the cut it is worth **forty points of wipe
rate**. Against the full six it is worth a third of that, because one fighter is a sixth
of that line and a quarter of the cut. **This is a property of the cut, not of the
column.**
*Recorded in `tools/first-blood-baseline.json` and re-checked on every build by
`check-firstblood`; read it with `node tools/first-blood.mjs`. Earlier drafts of this
paragraph carried a swing of 43 from a single seed, which was high by more than its own
seed-to-seed noise — the figures above are three seeds and are the ones of record.*
At four players, **any** violence against the column is a party-ending decision. **Say
the shape aloud, not the average:** "nearly half of all parties die" is the honest
@@ -845,6 +860,18 @@ not a second definition of the sheet.
Not the "(before)" sheets. This is the job, and it wants people who have been inducted.
> ⚠ **THE DECLARED CAST IS LOAD-BEARING ON THE BUILD.** The `<!-- cast: -->` comment above
> is read by two guards. **`check-rollable`** holds every skill the acts name to these six,
> and **`check-firstblood`** holds a recorded measurement of this scenario's own encounter
> against them. **EXPOSURE's whole table is measured against these six as well.**
>
> So changing who is cast is not a cosmetic edit. It invalidates the exposure figures and it
> will fail the build. **The fix is to re-record, not to revert** — `node tools/first-blood.mjs
> --update`, and re-run EXPOSURE's own published command — and then to re-read the prose
> around both, because the sentences quote ratios that move with the numbers. That coupling
> is deliberate: it converts a table that would otherwise go quietly stale into one that
> announces it.
| | Agent | Lane | The one thing they are for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | **Dominic Ashcroft** `pc_ashcroft` | Coherence | He has been thin before and knows what it costs |