R-278: raising SCAN_RUNS found that SCAN_RUNS had never been read
Asked to raise the scan until the redcap's pack size stopped flipping. Measured the threshold -- unstable at 3000 and 4000, stable across twenty seeds at 6000 -- raised it, and the re-record took fifteen seconds, which was impossible. winRate takes three parameters and pickSize passed SCAN_RUNS as a fourth. JavaScript discards it, so every scan has always run at RUNS and SCAN_RUNS has never been read by anything. The fix I was asked to make was inert in the same way as the thing it was fixing. winRate takes runs now. The redcap is still n=3 with gain 6.3, arrived at stably rather than luckily; the_arrears drops out of the measurable band at an honest scan, 31 packs to 30; the_committee moves 2 to 6 and stays pinned. Claim check still passes, bestiary regenerated. The only signal was a number being too small. A fifteen-second re-record is good news, and good news is what nobody investigates. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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slaguru666
co-authored by
Claude Opus 5
Claude Opus 5
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00e5a993cc
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a7eca91a9c
@@ -193,7 +193,7 @@ check-creatures: OK — 102 actor specs across 8 sources, every characteristic,
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check-powers: OK — 41 powers classified, 2 wired and each one measurably changes its fight, 14 recorded as beyond the harness with a reason, 25 not fight rules
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check-anatomy: OK — 5 body plans, 36 locations, d20 complete in both modes, every location drawn, every kind handled and destructible, 20 plan changes carried 432 wounds with their severity intact, 1 flyer(s) with a survivable landing
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check-lethality: OK — 47 creatures, every one fighting exactly as recorded against the frozen party
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check-focus: OK — focus fire measured against 31 packs, helps in all of them, 31 of them by more than their own noise
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check-focus: OK — focus fire measured against 30 packs, helps in all of them, 30 of them by more than their own noise
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check-firstblood: OK — the first disabling blow is worth 40 points of wipe rate in the four-player cut, 15.4 in the six-a-side line
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check-attackers: OK — three of the four-player cut disable on 11.1% of their attacks or better, and one of them on 0.1%
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check-fight-tail: OK — a fight past 15 rounds wipes the party 1.4x as often in the four-player cut and 2.4x at six a side, and nothing was truncated
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+1
-1
@@ -88,7 +88,7 @@ measured in the simulator and came to nothing distinguishable from noise.
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**What you can do is kill them one at a time.** Against a pack, every agent putting
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their attacks into the same creature beats spreading them — in **every one** of the
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31 fights in this book whose outcome was ever in doubt, without exception, and by more
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30 fights in this book whose outcome was ever in doubt, without exception, and by more
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than the measurement’s own noise each time. It is worth about
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**8 points** of win rate against a pair and
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**11 points** against three or more; the best case in the book is
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@@ -6403,3 +6403,48 @@ fights solo, read the wipe column when the agents-down column was the one that m
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explained a power by a mechanism that does not hold. Each was found by somebody asking me to
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act on it. The entry is worth keeping in that state rather than tidying: it is the clearest
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example in this log of confident, internally consistent, repeatedly wrong.
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## R-278 — raising SCAN_RUNS found that SCAN_RUNS had never been read
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R-277 left the redcap's recorded pack size one seed in eight from being 2 instead of 3, so
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the instruction was to raise the scan until it stopped flipping. Measured rather than
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guessed: still unstable at 3000 and 4000, stable across twenty seeds at 6000. Raised it.
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**Then the re-record took fifteen seconds, which was impossible.** Fifteen times the scan
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work cannot cost what 400 runs cost, so I read the call:
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```js
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const winRate = (foes, targets, seed) => { for (let i = 0; i < RUNS; i++) ...
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...
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const w = winRate(Array(n).fill(spec), "random", seedFor(...), SCAN_RUNS);
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```
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**Three parameters, four arguments.** JavaScript discards the fourth in silence, so every
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scan this guard has ever run used `RUNS`, and `SCAN_RUNS` — declared, commented, passed —
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has never been read by anything. Changing it from 400 to 6000 also did nothing, which is
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how it surfaced: the fix I was asked to make was inert in exactly the way the thing it was
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fixing was.
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That is the defect this project names as its own signature — a value computed and never
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read — living inside a guard, undetected by seventeen other guards, for as long as the
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scan has existed. **No guard can catch it.** The constant is used at its one call site and
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the call site looks correct; only the clock disagreed.
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**What the honest scan changed.** `winRate` takes `runs` now, and the re-record costs 49
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seconds instead of 15:
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- **the redcap is still n=3, gain still 6.3** — the answer R-277 gave was right, and is now
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arrived at stably rather than luckily.
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- **the_arrears drops out of the measurable band**, 31 packs to 30. Its best size was chosen
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on 1000 runs and does not survive 6000, which means it has been carrying a recorded focus
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gain that the scan would not now stand behind.
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- **the_committee moves n 2 to 6** and stays pinned either way, so nothing is measured there
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and nothing changes.
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**The claim check still passes**: focus fire helps in all 30, all of them clear of their own
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noise. Bestiary regenerated, and it prints 30 where it printed 31.
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**The lesson is not about arity.** It is that the only signal was a number being too small,
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and I nearly did not look — a fifteen-second re-record is good news, and good news is what
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nobody investigates. The same instinct that made the README quieter as the build got worse
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(R-268) made this cheaper as the scan got weaker.
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+14
-4
@@ -51,7 +51,13 @@ const RUNS = 1000;
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const SEEDS = [11, 4242, 90210];
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const SEED_MODE = "per-creature";
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const SIZES = [2, 3, 4, 5, 6];
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const SCAN_RUNS = 400;
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/* R-278. 400 was enough to find a size and not enough to find the SAME size twice. For
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the redcap the criterion is near-tied — |win-50| is about 25 at two of them and 23 at
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three — so a 400-run scan picked 2 instead of 3 roughly one seed in eight, and the
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recorded gain moved 6.3 to 4.9 with it. Measured rather than guessed: the pick is still
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unstable at 3000 and at 4000, and stable across twenty seeds at 6000. This is --update
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only, so the build pays nothing; re-recording pays about half a minute. */
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const SCAN_RUNS = 6000;
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/* A pack whose spread-fire rate falls outside this cannot move enough to measure, and a
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row that cannot move is a row that would pass this guard whatever happened to it. */
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const MEASURABLE = [15, 85];
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@@ -71,12 +77,16 @@ const party = PARTY_KEYS.map(k => {
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to roll its own LCG, so the two guards described the same game with different dice and
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no figure here could be reproduced from simulate.mjs. */
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const rngFor = makeRng;
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const winRate = (foes, targets, seed) => {
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/* R-278: `runs` was not a parameter. pickSize has always passed SCAN_RUNS as a fourth
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argument to a three-argument function, so JavaScript discarded it and every scan ran at
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RUNS instead — the constant was declared, documented, passed and never read, which is
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the defect this project keeps finding in itself, sitting inside a guard. */
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const winRate = (foes, targets, seed, runs = RUNS) => {
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let won = 0;
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for (let i = 0; i < RUNS; i++) {
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for (let i = 0; i < runs; i++) {
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if (runFight(rngFor(seed + i * 2654435761), party, foes, { partyTargets: targets }).won) won++;
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}
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return (100 * won) / RUNS;
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return (100 * won) / runs;
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};
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const mean = a => a.reduce((x, y) => x + y, 0) / a.length;
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+13
-16
@@ -94,11 +94,11 @@
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},
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"supporter": {
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"n": 2,
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"pinned": 4
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"pinned": 4.7
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},
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"hollow_man": {
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"n": 6,
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"pinned": 91.8
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"pinned": 92.3
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},
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"the_tenant": {
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"n": 2,
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@@ -106,7 +106,7 @@
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},
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"the_choir": {
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"n": 6,
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"pinned": 99.4
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"pinned": 99
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},
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"precedent": {
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"n": 3,
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@@ -138,7 +138,7 @@
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},
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"quarantine_unit": {
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"n": 2,
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"pinned": 0.2
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"pinned": 0.1
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},
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"cuckoo_array": {
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"n": 2,
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@@ -149,7 +149,7 @@
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},
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"long_walker": {
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"n": 2,
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"pinned": 0.1
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"pinned": 0.6
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},
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"auditor": {
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"n": 4,
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@@ -175,7 +175,7 @@
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},
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"knockers": {
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"n": 6,
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"pinned": 99.7
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"pinned": 99.8
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},
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"spriggan": {
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"n": 3,
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@@ -186,11 +186,11 @@
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},
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"nuckelavee": {
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"n": 2,
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"pinned": 8.2
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"pinned": 8.5
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},
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"hedley_kow": {
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"n": 6,
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"pinned": 97.8
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"pinned": 97.3
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},
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"apple_man": {
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"n": 2,
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@@ -200,8 +200,8 @@
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"noise": 0.8
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},
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"the_committee": {
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"n": 2,
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"pinned": 100
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"n": 6,
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"pinned": 99.9
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},
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"night_registry": {
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"n": 4,
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@@ -244,7 +244,7 @@
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},
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"switchboard": {
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"n": 6,
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"pinned": 86.9
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"pinned": 85.9
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},
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"the_census": {
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"n": 3,
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@@ -269,7 +269,7 @@
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},
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"the_stanchion": {
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"n": 2,
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"pinned": 5.8
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"pinned": 5.2
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},
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"the_yield": {
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"n": 2,
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@@ -287,10 +287,7 @@
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},
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"the_arrears": {
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"n": 2,
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"spread": 14.7,
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"focus": 21,
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"gain": 6.3,
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"noise": 1.5
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"pinned": 14.4
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},
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"the_margin": {
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"n": 5,
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