diff --git a/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND.md b/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND.md index 8d81fb8..3753e7b 100644 --- a/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND.md +++ b/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND.md @@ -177,13 +177,17 @@ written.** See Act Two's budget table. | **Act Two: the column's hospitality, once rather than twice** | ~5 | A little warmth. Take this one last, and only if the line's rest has already overrun | **Running total: 65 minutes of cuts available against a 55-minute problem.** On paper that -is ten minutes of slack. **Plan against four.** +is ten minutes of slack. **Treat it as somewhere between zero and ten, and take the cuts +early.** -Desk pass 4 ran v0.13 on a deliberately hostile seed — two fumbles, eight failures — took -two of the three cuts, and finished at **~3:46 against 3:40**, with the hospitality cut -still in hand. That is four minutes of margin plus one unspent cut, and it is the honest -number. Ten is what you get on a friendly seed, and a GM who plans against ten will find -out at the Close that they were planning against the wrong one. +Desk pass 4 ran v0.13 on a hostile seed and estimated ~3:46 against 3:40; correcting six +misread skill ratings in that pass moved the same seed to ~3:34. **Neither figure is a +runtime.** They are two readings of one simulated table, ten minutes apart, and the +distance between them is roughly the size of the margin being argued about — which is the +honest thing to tell a GM about a desk estimate of how long people will talk. + +What the passes do establish is the shape: **every scene now has something written into it +that ends it**, the cuts are real, and the act most likely to overrun is Three, not Two. **Do not cut:** telling Ivy, the almanac pair, or the Close. They are the scenario. @@ -681,8 +685,11 @@ carelessness — this column has done this before, and it has lost people doing > moment the fumble lands, not at the break. With the cut, a fumbled act runs ~55 and the > session absorbs it. Without it, Act Three runs 70 and the Close pays. > -> Desk pass 4 hit this fumble and came out even only because the cut had already been -> taken. Nothing in the act previously said the two were connected. +> **The arithmetic is the reason, not a playtest.** Desk pass 4 originally reported hitting +> this fumble; re-checking its rolls against the real sheets showed the roll was a plain +> failure, not a fumble — 98 against Anomaly Lore 63, and 96–99 never succeed. So nobody has +> yet played the twenty minutes. The warning stands on its own: the text predicts the cost, +> the budget does not carry it, and nothing connected the two. **Beats** - **The evidence of the loop — three routes, with the almanac behind all of them.** diff --git a/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND_PLAYTEST_4.md b/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND_PLAYTEST_4.md index 503c17c..f2a7f0b 100644 --- a/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND_PLAYTEST_4.md +++ b/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND_PLAYTEST_4.md @@ -317,3 +317,56 @@ committed document until the fix went to apply it. A playtest is a reading of th a reading made while looking for faults finds faults that are not there as readily as ones that are — which is an argument for applying fixes against the source rather than against the notes. + +--- + +## POST-PASS 2 — six of this pass's sixteen ratings were wrong + +Found while setting up desk pass 5, by pulling the four cut sheets out of `roster.mjs` +instead of typing the numbers from memory. **This pass typed them from memory.** + +| Roll | Used | Actual | Effect | +|---|---|---|---| +| Pollard · Spot, the stump | 58 | **53** | **success → fail** | +| Okonkwo · Spot, treeline | 52 | **35** | none, fails either way | +| Braithwaite · Spot, the six | 48 | **35** | none, succeeds either way | +| Pollard · Listen, the flank | 55 | **53** | none | +| Bhattacharya · Anomaly Lore, depot | 58 | **63** | **FUMBLE → plain failure** | +| Braithwaite · Xenology (Baseline) | 45 | **53** | **fail → success** | + +The d100s are unchanged — they come from the seed — so this is purely a matter of what +they were compared against. + +**Three things this pass reported did not happen.** + +1. **The re-cut-the-peg fumble never fired.** 98 against Anomaly Lore 63 is a plain + failure; 96–99 never succeed and only 00 fumbles. So the ten minutes this pass spent + chasing the wrong idea, and the whole of finding 2, rest on a fumble the seed did not + produce. +2. **Braithwaite's Xenology succeeded.** The party's one reliable Act Four test did *not* + miss. This pass's claim that the single-point-of-failure "finally came up in play" is + false, and it remains untested after five passes. +3. **Pollard missed the stump**, making Act One worse rather than better. + +**What that does to the timing verdict.** Without the fumble chase, Act Three runs about +35 with the seam cut rather than 45, and a successful Xenology is marginally faster than a +failed one. The same seed, read correctly, lands near **3:34 — six minutes under budget +rather than six minutes over.** + +**What survives.** Findings 1, 3 and 5 are untouched: the special on the column Persuade +was a real 7, Renshaw's fumble on Swinburne was a real 00, and THE OFFER's staging is not +a dice question at all. Finding 2's *conclusion* also survives, because it never depended +on the roll: Act Three is budgeted at 50, the text itself predicts the fumble costs 20, and +nothing connected that to the cut that pays for it. **The reasoning was right and the +evidence was invented.** The scenario has been corrected to say so rather than citing a +playtest that did not happen. + +**The lesson, which is the same one twice in one document.** Post-pass 1 recorded that this +pass formed a view about a clause without re-reading it. This is that again at the level of +data: sixteen ratings, six of them wrong, none of them checked against the sheet they came +from, in a document whose entire authority is that the rolls were honest. A playtest that +invents its own target numbers is not a playtest, it is a story about one — and it is worth +noticing that the errors were not random. Every wrong value was **close** to the real one, +which is exactly why nothing looked wrong on the page. + +**Desk pass 5 pulls every rating from `roster.mjs` before rolling.**