diff --git a/docs/REVIEW_LOG.md b/docs/REVIEW_LOG.md
index 2528662..3aff032 100644
--- a/docs/REVIEW_LOG.md
+++ b/docs/REVIEW_LOG.md
@@ -6976,3 +6976,22 @@ was right and the test was wrong.
 
 **Landed unused, deliberately.** No citation markers were placed, because `CLEAN_GROUND.md` is
 c0's and the markers are theirs to place. The mechanism is what this commit is.
+
+## R-295 — the counterfactual is derived too, and named as one
+
+Preparing to place citation markers on the step-5 figures, five of them matched nothing in
+the derived source: 21.9%, 74.3% and 3.8%, each appearing twice. They are the thing against
+Ashcroft's undiminished POW×5 of 85 — the contest that never happens, because a refusing
+Ashcroft is never the one it reaches for.
+
+Act Four prints that pair deliberately and correctly, with a warning, because it is what THE
+OFFER sold and without it a reader cannot see the size of the trade. So it is now derived as
+well, under the name `hadHeRefused`: the document's counterfactual is held to the rule like
+every other figure, and the name says what it is. Quoting these three as odds a GM meets is
+precisely what went wrong in two sentences and a table, and a path called `hadHeRefused` is
+harder to misread than a bare 74.3.
+
+Everything in the step-5 prose now resolves to a derived value: `refused.*`, `cut.*`,
+`accepted.*`, `hadHeRefused.*`, `blended.*`, the shares, the targets and the thing's own 75.
+The markers themselves are not placed yet — `CLEAN_GROUND.md` is c0's and they are in it,
+placing 91 `packs` citations of their own.
diff --git a/tools/step5-split.mjs b/tools/step5-split.mjs
index b480fe4..575d04a 100644
--- a/tools/step5-split.mjs
+++ b/tools/step5-split.mjs
@@ -115,12 +115,20 @@ export function step5Split() {
   const insight = (expandFromRegister(spec).skills ?? [])
     .find(s => s.fam === "insight")?.val ?? 0;
 
+  /* THE CONTEST THAT NEVER HAPPENS, derived on purpose. If Ashcroft refuses, the countdown
+     does not reach for him at all — it reaches for the lowest POW in the room — so the thing
+     never faces his undiminished 85. Act Four nevertheless prints that pair, correctly and
+     with a warning: it is what THE OFFER sold, and without it the reader cannot see the size
+     of the trade. It is citable here so the document's counterfactual is held to the rule
+     like everything else, and named `hadHeRefused` so nobody mistakes it for an event. It is
+     what quoting these numbers as odds a GM meets did to two sentences and a table. */
   const rows = {
-    refused:  { ...six,      target: six.rating,      who: six.who },
-    cut:      { ...four,     target: four.rating,     who: four.who },
-    accepted: { ...accepted, target: accepted.rating, who: accepted.who }
+    refused:      { ...six,      target: six.rating,      who: six.who },
+    cut:          { ...four,     target: four.rating,     who: four.who },
+    accepted:     { ...accepted, target: accepted.rating, who: accepted.who },
+    hadHeRefused: { who: ash.who, target: ash.rating }
   };
-  for (const k of ["refused", "cut", "accepted"]) {
+  for (const k of ["refused", "cut", "accepted", "hadHeRefused"]) {
     Object.assign(rows[k], split(THING_RATING, rows[k].target));
   }
 
@@ -138,13 +146,13 @@ if (import.meta.main || process.argv[1]?.endsWith("step5-split.mjs")) {
   const s = step5Split();
   console.log(`\n  The thing reaches at ${s.thing}. Ashcroft refuses on Insight, so `
     + `${s.refusedShare}% of tables are in the first row and ${s.acceptedShare}% the second.\n`);
-  console.log("  case      resists            taken    held  unsettled");
-  for (const k of ["refused", "cut", "accepted"]) {
+  console.log("  case          resists            taken    held  unsettled");
+  for (const k of ["refused", "cut", "accepted", "hadHeRefused"]) {
     const r = s[k];
-    console.log(`  ${k.padEnd(9)} ${(r.who + " " + r.target).padEnd(18)} `
+    console.log(`  ${k.padEnd(13)} ${(r.who + " " + r.target).padEnd(18)} `
       + `${String(r.taken).padStart(5)}  ${String(r.held).padStart(6)}  ${String(r.unsettled).padStart(9)}`);
   }
   const b = s.blended;
-  console.log(`  ${"blended".padEnd(9)} ${"across all games".padEnd(18)} `
+  console.log(`  ${"blended".padEnd(13)} ${"across all games".padEnd(18)} `
     + `${String(b.taken).padStart(5)}  ${String(b.held).padStart(6)}  ${String(b.unsettled).padStart(9)}\n`);
 }