diff --git a/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND.md b/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND.md index edc4a10..2c9ad06 100644 --- a/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND.md +++ b/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND.md @@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ | | | |---|---| -| **Version** | **v0.19**, 13 September 2026 | +| **Version** | **v0.19.1**, 13 September 2026 | | **Can it be run?** | **Yes, from this document alone.** A GM with this file and the compendium can run it end to end. | | **Is it convention-ready?** | **Nearly.** The print pack is built (`CLEAN_GROUND_HANDOUTS.html`, held by `check-handouts`). What is missing is a run with human beings, and a slot. | | **Playtesting** | **Seven desk passes, no human runs.** `_1.md` GM chair (seed 4271) · `_2.md` Act Four stress (9314) · `_3.md` player chair, contrarian (5580) · `_4.md` **the clock, against v0.13's recut timings** (6142) · `_5.md` **the four-player cut, played** (8815) · `_6.md` **the four untested branches, forced** (3319) · `_7.md` **an honest session, nothing forced** (7742) · `_8.md` **the cold read, plus an honest session** (5108). Fifty-two fixes plus three post-passes, and pass 7's finding is now a guard: **`check-outcomes` reads every bracketed mechanic tag in the acts and holds what its beat states.** Pass 7 ran ~3:35 against 3:40 at six players with no cuts taken — the first honest pass inside the clock unaided. | @@ -316,16 +316,26 @@ Advance one step per act, plus one whenever the agents spend Coherence on the fa **Enumerated over all 10,000 roll pairs — no seed, reproduce it from `opposedContestFor`:** -| It reaches for | Takes them | **They hold** | Unsettled | -|---|---|---|---| -| **Okonkwo, POW×5 55 — the default** | 40.7% | **48.1%** | 11.3% | -| Braithwaite, 60 | 37.6% | **52.4%** | 10.0% | -| **Ashcroft, 85, refused THE OFFER** | 21.9% | **74.3%** | 3.8% | -| Ashcroft, 85 → 42, accepted | 48.7% | **36.8%** | 14.5% | +**There are only two of these at a real table, and which one you get was decided in Act Two.** -**Most tables will play the middle column.** Ashcroft refuses about five times in eight, and -even against the easiest file in the room the thing fails more often than it succeeds. Desk -pass 8 rolled it and found the document had nothing to say. +| What actually happens at step 5 | How often | Takes them | **They hold** | Unsettled | +|---|---|---|---|---| +| **Ashcroft refused** → it reaches for **Okonkwo, POW×5 55** | **63%** of games | 40.7% | **48.1%** | 11.3% | +| **Ashcroft accepted** → it reaches for **Ashcroft at 42** | 37% | 48.7% | **36.8%** | 14.5% | +| **Across all games** | | 43.6% | **43.9%** | 12.5% | + +⚠ **Ashcroft at his full 85 is NOT on this table, and that is not an omission.** If he refused +he is the hardest file in the room and the thing does not reach for him at all — it reaches for +the easiest. The **21.9% / 74.3%** pair printed in Act Four is a *counterfactual*: what it would +cost him if it tried, quoted only to price what accepting THE OFFER sold. **No table ever rolls +it.** Desk pass 8's fix list got this wrong and a second reader repeated the error straight out +of it, which is why this note is here. + +- **If the target is Braithwaite instead** — a table that cut Okonkwo, or a GM who reads the + room differently — it is 37.6% / **52.4%** / 10.0% at his POW×5 60. +- **Across the whole population of games they hold very slightly more often than they are + taken**, and a GM who has been assuming the countdown lands has been assuming wrong. Desk + pass 8 rolled it and found the document had nothing to say. #### WHEN THEY HOLD — read this one most often diff --git a/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND_PLAYTEST_8.md b/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND_PLAYTEST_8.md index 8f9e8af..71c4b50 100644 --- a/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND_PLAYTEST_8.md +++ b/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND_PLAYTEST_8.md @@ -220,8 +220,9 @@ unwritten special — but within the ±5 the last three passes have shown. ## Fix list 1. **⚠ Write the outcome where the agent wins.** *(Countdown, Act Four)* **48.1%** against the - default target, **74.3%** against an Ashcroft who refused — the likeliest result of the - scenario's climax, and the only moment all night somebody beats the thing on their own. + default target — the likeliest single result of the scenario's climax, and the only moment + all night somebody beats the thing on their own. *(This item originally also cited 74.3% + "against an Ashcroft who refused". That contest never happens — see the post-pass.)* Give it read-aloud of its own, and stop the *"COMES TO NOTHING"* paragraph from being the nearest text to an outcome it is not about. 2. **⚠ Fix EXPOSURE's list: six items, in order, under a heading that says six.** @@ -236,3 +237,32 @@ unwritten special — but within the ±5 the last three passes have shown. taken; a hollow man that succeeds at the swap, now failed three times running; and the human run, which is still the only thing that can settle whether a GM who did not write this can run it. + +--- + +## POST-PASS — the 74.3% is a counterfactual and this pass quoted it as an event + +Finding 1's table listed four targets under the heading *"Step 5 against"*, and one of them +cannot occur. **If Ashcroft refuses THE OFFER, the countdown does not reach for him** — it +reaches for the lowest POW in the room, which is Okonkwo. The 21.9% / 74.3% pair exists in +Act Four to price what accepting *sold*: what it would cost him if it tried. **No table ever +rolls it.** + +So there are two live cases, not four, and Act Two decides which: + +| What actually happens | How often | Taken | They hold | Unsettled | +|---|---|---|---|---| +| Ashcroft refused → it reaches for Okonkwo 55 | **63%** | 40.7% | **48.1%** | 11.3% | +| Ashcroft accepted → it reaches for Ashcroft at 42 | 37% | 48.7% | **36.8%** | 14.5% | +| **Across all games** | | 43.6% | **43.9%** | 12.5% | + +**The finding is unharmed and the fix was right** — the held outcome is still the single +likeliest result and was still unwritten. What was wrong was the framing that made 74.3% look +like the number a GM meets. + +**It propagated before it was caught.** The peer session read this pass and replied that +"the 74.3% against a refusing Ashcroft is the number a GM meets, not the 48.1%" — repeating +the error straight out of this document, which is what a wrong number in a fix list does. The +v0.19 table is rebuilt around what actually happens and carries the warning inline, so the +next reader cannot make the same move. The 63/37 split is the Insight 63 itself: he refuses +on anything that is not a failure or a fumble.