diff --git a/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND.md b/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND.md index 29184b6..f5eb520 100644 --- a/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND.md +++ b/docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND.md @@ -689,7 +689,7 @@ node tools/simulate.mjs --creature the_understudy \ range bands or fire modes, and every one of those makes a fight worse for whoever is losing. Both of the first two are live in this scenario. -#### The four things a GM needs from that table +#### The five things a GM needs from that table 1. **Do not fix the understudy.** It is a 1d3 punch with a 60% chance to land, and it goes down in two rounds. That is correct and it is the point: the horror is that it passed @@ -749,6 +749,32 @@ losing. Both of the first two are live in this scenario. the shape aloud, not the average:** "nearly half of all parties die" is the honest warning, and "you will probably lose two people" is not. +5. **Their sheets read about twice as effective as they are, and the number doing it is + Dodge 68.** This one is arithmetic off two published numbers, not a measurement. The + column dodges at **68%** (`The Quiet Neighbours`, `tools/content.mjs`; the bestiary + prints it), and a defence is spent **per incoming blow** — so a skill roll is only the + first half of the test. A 40% attack against a fresh dodge connects about **one time in + eight** (0.40 x 0.32), against a sheet that reads 40%. The three who can fight in the cut + carry Firearm and Melee between 35 and 40. **Nobody at the table will guess that from + their own sheet**, and the same gap is Ashcroft's defect one level less severe: the + number on the page is not the chance of doing anything. + - **The way out is to spend their dodges, not to out-shoot them.** Each defence after the + first in the same round is at **-30** (`DEFENCE_STEP`, `rules.mjs`), so a defender who + has already dodged once meets the next blow at 38%, then 8%, then the 1% floor. The + second agent to connect in a round is worth more than the first — that is what + `check-focus` measures across the bestiary, and it holds here. + - **Recorded, and it agrees:** the three land **16 to 18%** of their attacks — + Bhattacharya 17.8, Renshaw 17.3, Braithwaite 16.2 — which is *above* the one-in-eight + the arithmetic gives for a fresh dodge, precisely because most blows in a fight are not + the first of their round. `tools/attackers-baseline.json`, held by `check-attackers`. + - **This is the other half of why the cut is a different game.** Three attackers cannot + spend three defenders' dodges; six can. Point 4 says the cut is short an attacker. + Dodge 68 says what that costs — the missing attacker is the one who would have made + everybody else's shots land. + - **Do not fix it by lowering the dodge.** Their 68% is why Act Two's answer is medicine + passed hand to hand with both parties off the ground rather than marksmanship. The + column being uncatchable is the point; see their tactics line. + #### What to do instead of a fight - **Act Four's tension is a test, not a threat.** The question is which of two people is @@ -1032,6 +1058,15 @@ twice.* Braithwaite on a knife. **That is a quarter of the party out of any fight**, and it is a large part of why EXPOSURE says violence at four players is party-ending. Substituting Agyeman fixes the arithmetic as well as the lane. + - **He is not sidelined in the fight — he is busy and ineffective.** He takes his + actions — **9.2 attacks across a fight, of which 1% land** (`check-attackers`) — and + **one attack in a thousand disables anybody**. That plays worse at the table than + being obviously out of it: a player who cannot act knows to do something else, and a + player rolling once a round for an hour thinks he is fighting. **If a fight starts and Ashcroft is in it, give him something that is not + an attack roll** — First Aid 40 on whoever went down, Dodge 63 to get to them through + the line, Insight 63 on whether the column is still shooting to kill or only to be + left alone, and the anchor. His entry lists the same four; this is where they earn + their keep. - **Never drop Braithwaite.** Xenology (Baseline) is the only test that works. If a player insists on a sheet that hasn't got it, hand the lane to **Dr Chidi Nkemdirim** `pc_nkemdirim` and accept that Act Four gets harder, or give the understudy a visible