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slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 aa3ae24ef2 CLEAN GROUND v0.16 — the fight it was never measuring, and R-283
Applies desk pass 6's seven fixes.

1. EXPOSURE now measures the fight the table will have. Every row in the old
   table was one force fighting alone, and the six at the back are never
   alone — they walk inside forty-one refugees. Six hollow men wipe 0.0%;
   with two of the column joining, 7.8%; with three, 28.7%. Two is now the
   stated default, because two people out of forty-one losing their heads
   while their neighbours are shot is not a large number.
2. The four-player block has hollow-man rows: 0.3% at three, 58.7% at six,
   99.9% with two of the column. Its only hollow-man figure before was the
   six-player 0.0%, so a GM running the cut was reading somebody else's
   table — for the encounter the party is likeliest to choose, because the
   six at the back are the only figures the scenario says are not people.
   GM ESSENTIALS item 3 carries the same correction.
3. Act Three's warning named a roll that does not exist. Its twenty-minute
   bomb hangs off "Anomaly Lore — what a peg is"; the depot entry is a
   Research roll. Pass 4's post-pass inherited the conflation from this
   warning and is corrected too.
4. GM ESSENTIALS states the real fumble band. fumbleStart is
   101 - ceil((101-band)/20), tested before the 96-99 clause: 00 at 85,
   99-00 at 63, 98-00 at 53, 97-00 at 40. Four times what "00 always
   fumbles" implies, in a case that rolls Spot 40 across two acts. Pass 4's
   correction was right at 63 by luck and would have been wrong at 53.
5. Sixth EXPOSURE lesson: a fight costs the session. Median 13 rounds on the
   printed row, 24 mixed, 30 at four players — sixty to ninety minutes in an
   act budgeted at fifty. The Pacing Note now says what to do when one
   starts, and not to absorb a fight and the peg fumble in the same act.
6. The fumbled Xenology is written. At 53 it fumbles on 98-00 and Braithwaite
   puts his name to a baseline human in front of everybody. The un-gated tell
   still arrives; it now costs the party its expert.
7. R-283: simulate.mjs described a mixed force as N of whichever spec came
   first, so six hollow men and six of the column printed as "12 x Hollow
   man" — two fights 88 points of wipe rate apart under one label. The
   composition was always right and the report was not. Uniform and --spread
   output are byte-identical, so nothing already published goes stale.

Every figure re-run before writing rather than carried over. npm run check:
18 guards pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 15:16:17 +01:00
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