Desk pass 8's finding 1 listed four targets for countdown step 5 and one of
them cannot happen. If Ashcroft REFUSES THE OFFER the thing does not reach
for him — it reaches for the lowest POW in the room, which is Okonkwo. The
21.9% / 74.3% pair lives in Act Four to price what accepting sold: what it
would cost him if it tried. No table ever rolls it.
v0.19 carried that straight into the new table under a heading reading "It
reaches for", which is the one place it is unambiguously wrong. Rebuilt
around the two cases that actually occur, with the split Act Two decides:
Ashcroft refused 63% of games -> Okonkwo 55 taken 40.7 hold 48.1 uns 11.3
Ashcroft accepted 37% -> Ashcroft 42 taken 48.7 hold 36.8 uns 14.5
across all games taken 43.6 hold 43.9 uns 12.5
63/37 is the Insight 63 itself: he refuses on anything that is not a failure
or a fumble. The warning is now inline in the table rather than left for the
reader to derive.
The finding is unharmed and the fix was right — the held outcome is still the
likeliest single result and was still unwritten. What was wrong was framing
74.3% as a number a GM meets.
It propagated before it was caught: the peer session read pass 8 and replied
that 74.3% "is the number a GM meets, not the 48.1%", repeating the error out
of my own fix list. That is what a wrong number in a fix list does, and it is
the argument for correcting the record rather than only the scenario. Pass 8's
fix list is amended and carries a post-pass.
npm run check: 19 guards pass.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
