RingBRP/tools/simulate.mjs

/**
 * The lethality harness — how dangerous is this creature, actually.
 *
 * THROUGH TRAIN Act Three publishes "MEASURED, 400 runs each, four duty-roster agents
 * against the six" and a 24% wipe rate. The starter publishes its own table. Nothing in
 * this repository could produce either number: whatever measured them was never
 * committed, so both are claims rather than results and neither can be re-checked after
 * a rule changes. That is the gap this closes.
 *
 * THE ONE RULE THIS FILE FOLLOWS: it does not know any rules. Every number comes out of
 * rules.mjs — banding, difficulty, graded defences, hit points, major wounds, damage
 * modifiers, Reaction, the dying clock. A harness with its own copy of the combat loop
 * measures a game nobody is playing, and it drifts silently the first time a rule moves.
 * If a rule is missing here, the fix is to export it from rules.mjs, not to write it
 * again. applyDifficulty, resolveBands and gradeRoll were moved out of ringbrp.mjs for
 * exactly this reason — node cannot import the engine, and the engine had the only copy.
 *
 * Deterministic throughout: same creature, same party, same seed, same numbers. That is
 * what lets a published table be verified instead of remembered.
 *
 *   node tools/simulate.mjs --creature keepers --party 4 --runs 400
 *   node tools/simulate.mjs --creature tt_cordera_man --count 6 --spread
 *   node tools/simulate.mjs --creature keepers --party holloway,okonkwo,finch,rahimi
 *   node tools/simulate.mjs --creature tt_coat --count 4 --runs 400 --seed 11
 *   node tools/simulate.mjs --list
 *
 * WHAT IT MODELS, AND WHAT IT DOES NOT. It runs Reaction order re-rolled every round,
 * attack banding with the 1% floor and the 96-99 rule, one defence per incoming blow at
 * the stacking defence penalty, graded defences, damage by band with armour ignored on a
 * critical and halved on a special, major wounds, and the dying clock.
 *
 * It also, now, models HIT LOCATIONS — 1d20 against the defender's own species table,
 * melee finding limbs and shooting finding centre of mass, each location carrying its
 * own share of the pool, disabled at its maximum and destroyed at twice it. The
 * consequences apply: a destroyed head is unconscious immediately, a ruined arm costs
 * you every attack, a ruined leg costs you every dodge, and a Cadence losing a body
 * costs the whole creature 10% of everything it does.
 *
 * That last one is why this was worth doing. A Cadence has no vital and no head, so it
 * cannot be dropped by a lucky shot and instead degrades toward useless; measured
 * without locations it was simply a person with an odd portrait, and the number the
 * harness printed was about a creature nobody was playing.
 *
 * It still does NOT model bleeding, panic, Coherence, cover, range bands, fire modes or
 * burst. Those all exist in rules.mjs, they all matter, and every one of them makes a
 * fight WORSE for whoever is losing. Read the output as a floor, never as a ceiling.
 */
import {
  hitPointsFor, majorWoundFor, damageModifierFor, reactionBaseFrom,
  resolveBands, gradeRoll, defenceOutcomeFor, defencePenaltyFor,
  conditionFor, dyingLimitFor, REACTION,
  locationFor, resolveLocationHit, locationsFor, locationMaxHp,
  locationEffectsFor, woundPenaltyFrom, armourAgainst, damageAfterArmour
} from "../rules.mjs";
import { WEAPONS, ARMOURS, NPCS, PREGENS } from "./content.mjs";
import { ROSTER } from "./roster.mjs";
import { expandFromRegister } from "./expand-spec.mjs";
import { pathToFileURL } from "node:url";

const WEAPON = new Map(WEAPONS.map(w => [w.key, w]));
const ARMOUR = new Map(ARMOURS.map(a => [a.key, a]));

/* Readiness is the best of these, floored by INT x 3 — RINGBRP.readinessSkills and
   readinessIntFactor in the engine. Named here because node cannot import them. */
const READINESS_SKILLS = ["tradecraft", "insight", "spot", "listen"];
const READINESS_INT_FACTOR = 3;

/* ---------------------------------------------------------------- randomness */

/**
 * A seed of this creature's own.
 *
 * Every creature used to be measured against seed 11, which made each one independent
 * of its neighbours — inserting a creature perturbs nobody — but gave all forty-seven
 * of them the SAME two hundred dice. One draw's luck was therefore repeated across the
 * whole bestiary: if seed 11 happens to roll cold for the party, every creature in the
 * book looks a little deadlier than it is, and the error points the same way in all of
 * them, so no amount of reading across the table reveals it.
 *
 * Mixing the creature's key into the base seed decorrelates them without giving up
 * anything the guard depends on. It is still deterministic, still reproducible from the
 * base seed alone, and still local: a creature's number is a function of its own key,
 * so adding, removing or reordering the bestiary leaves every other row untouched.
 * Renaming a key does change that creature's dice, which is correct — a renamed key is
 * a different row in the baseline anyway.
 *
 * FNV-1a, because it is four lines and the only property that matters is that different
 * keys land far apart.
 */
export function seedFor(base, key = "") {
  let h = 0x811c9dc5;
  for (let i = 0; i < key.length; i++) {
    h ^= key.charCodeAt(i);
    h = Math.imul(h, 0x01000193) >>> 0;
  }
  return ((h ^ (Number(base) >>> 0)) >>> 0);
}

/** mulberry32 — small, fast, and seedable, which is the only property that matters. */
function makeRng(seed) {
  let a = seed >>> 0;
  return () => {
    a = (a + 0x6D2B79F5) >>> 0;
    let t = Math.imul(a ^ (a >>> 15), 1 | a);
    t = (t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), 61 | t)) ^ t;
    return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296;
  };
}

const d = (rng, sides) => 1 + Math.floor(rng() * sides);
const d100 = rng => d(rng, 100);

/** "1d6+2", "2d6", "-1d3", "0" -> { n, sides, mod, sign }. */
function parseDice(spec) {
  const s = String(spec ?? "0").trim();
  if (!s || s === "0") return { n: 0, sides: 0, mod: 0, sign: 1 };
  const m = s.match(/^([+-])?(\d*)d(\d+)([+-]\d+)?$/i);
  if (!m) {
    const flat = Number(s);
    return { n: 0, sides: 0, mod: Number.isFinite(flat) ? flat : 0, sign: 1 };
  }
  return {
    sign: m[1] === "-" ? -1 : 1,
    n: m[2] ? Number(m[2]) : 1,
    sides: Number(m[3]),
    mod: m[4] ? Number(m[4]) : 0
  };
}

const rollDice = (rng, p) => {
  let t = 0;
  for (let i = 0; i < p.n; i++) t += d(rng, p.sides);
  return p.sign * (t + p.mod);
};
/** Maximum, for a critical: "maximum weapon damage, plus a rolled damage modifier". */
const maxDice = p => p.sign * (p.n * p.sides + p.mod);

/* ---------------------------------------------------------------- combatants */

function skillMap(spec) {
  const m = new Map();
  for (const s of spec.skills ?? []) m.set(`${s.fam}:${s.spec ?? ""}`, s.val);
  return m;
}

/**
 * A spec written as a job carries no skills and no kit — everything a roster agent can
 * do comes out of the register at build time. Expand it exactly as the build does, or
 * the simulated agent is a civilian with her hands up rather than a Senior Field
 * Officer. A spec that already lists its own skills is a written creature and is used
 * as it stands.
 */
function ready(spec) {
  if (spec.skills) return spec;
  if (!spec.role && !spec.trade) return spec;
  return expandFromRegister(spec, { where: "simulate" });
}

/** Everything the loop needs, all of it derived through rules.mjs. */
export function buildCombatant(rawSpec, { side = "?" } = {}) {
  const spec = ready(rawSpec);
  const ch = spec.ch;
  const skills = skillMap(spec);
  const hp = hitPointsFor(ch.con, ch.siz);

  const readiness = Math.max(
    (ch.int ?? 0) * READINESS_INT_FACTOR,
    ...READINESS_SKILLS.map(k => skills.get(`${k}:`) ?? 0)
  );

  // Every weapon it can actually use, best FIRST — and "best" is expected damage per
  // attack, not the highest rating. Sorting on rating alone had the Cordera miners
  // punching at brawl 45 instead of drawing the Webley at firearm 35, trading 1d10 for
  // 1d3 because the number was bigger. Nobody chooses a weapon that way.
  // buildActor gives everyone punch, so nobody is ever weaponless — same reason it does.
  const carried = [...new Set(["punch", ...(spec.weapons ?? []), ...(spec.extraWeapons ?? [])])];
  const arms = carried.map(key => {
    const w = WEAPON.get(key);
    if (!w) return null;
    const id = w.spec ? `${w.fam}:${w.spec}` : `${w.fam}:`;
    const rating = skills.get(id) ?? 0;
    const dmg = parseDice(w.dmg);
    const meanDmg = dmg.sign * (dmg.n * (dmg.sides + 1) / 2 + dmg.mod);
    // resolveBands carries the 1% floor and the cap, so even an untrained weapon scores
    // something and nothing has to know the banding rules here.
    const hitChance = resolveBands(rating).band / 100;
    return { w, rating, dmg, usesMod: w.mod !== false, expected: hitChance * meanDmg };
  }).filter(Boolean).sort((a, b) => b.expected - a.expected);

  const worn = (spec.armour ?? []).reduce((t, k) => t + (ARMOUR.get(k)?.points ?? 0), 0);

  /* Every location this species has, each with its own share of the hit points. The
     share comes from the creature's OWN table, so a cadence gets five bodies at 0.28
     apiece and no vital at all, and a vesh gets a ridge instead of a head. */
  const species = spec.species ?? "baseline";
  const locations = locationsFor(species).map(l => ({
    id: l.id, kind: l.kind,
    max: locationMaxHp(hp, l.frac),
    taken: 0, disabled: false, destroyed: false
  }));

  return {
    side, key: spec.key, name: spec.name,
    species,
    hpMax: hp, hp,
    majorWound: majorWoundFor(hp),
    majorWounds: 0,
    dmgMod: parseDice(damageModifierFor((ch.str ?? 0) + (ch.siz ?? 0))),
    reactionBase: reactionBaseFrom(ch.dex, readiness),
    armour: worn + (Number(spec.naturalArmour) || 0),
    dodge: skills.get("dodge:") ?? 0,
    arms,
    locations,
    wounded: locationEffectsFor(locations),
    defencesThisRound: 0,
    dyingRounds: 0,
    startedUp: true
  };
}

/* A destroyed head is "unconscious immediately", which conditionFor has always known how
   to read and this harness never told it — so a headshot used to leave the target
   standing and swinging. */
const conditionOf = c => conditionFor({
  hp: c.hp, dyingRounds: c.dyingRounds, majorWound: c.majorWounds,
  unconscious: !!c.wounded?.unconscious
});
const isFighting = c => conditionOf(c) === "up";

/* ---------------------------------------------------------------- one fight */

function attack(rng, attacker, defender) {
  const arm = attacker.arms[0];
  if (!arm) return;

  // Where a blow lands depends on how it was thrown: melee finds limbs, because they are
  // between you and the target, and shooting finds centre of mass.
  const mode = arm.w.cls === "melee" ? "melee" : "ranged";

  // A wounded attacker is a worse attacker. Melee and ranged both take the MANIPULATION
  // penalty — losing an arm is what stops you fighting, whatever is in your hand — and
  // the mapping comes from rules.mjs rather than being restated here.
  const atkPen = woundPenaltyFrom(attacker.wounded, mode);
  const level = gradeRoll(d100(rng), resolveBands(arm.rating, { situational: atkPen }));
  if (level === "fumble" || level === "failure") return;

  // One defence per incoming blow, at the stacking penalty for each already spent this
  // round, PLUS whatever a ruined pair of legs costs — dodge is a `phys` skill, so a
  // disabled leg is exactly what stops you getting out of the way.
  let landing = level;
  if (defender.dodge > 0) {
    const penalty = defencePenaltyFor(defender.defencesThisRound)
                  + woundPenaltyFrom(defender.wounded, "phys");
    const dLevel = gradeRoll(d100(rng), resolveBands(defender.dodge, { situational: penalty }));
    defender.defencesThisRound++;
    const outcome = defenceOutcomeFor(level, dLevel);
    if (outcome.turnedAside) return;
    landing = outcome.landsAt;
  }

  // Critical: maximum weapon damage, plus a rolled damage modifier, armour ignored
  // entirely. Special: normal damage, armour counts half rounded down. Success: normal
  // damage, full armour. Straight out of the rules journal's "What a hit does".
  let dmg = landing === "critical" ? maxDice(arm.dmg) : rollDice(rng, arm.dmg);
  if (arm.usesMod) dmg += rollDice(rng, attacker.dmgMod);
  dmg = Math.max(1, dmg);   // R-56: a hit that connects always does something

  // R-257: armourAgainst and damageAfterArmour come from rules.mjs, the same two the
  // game applies. This harness used to restate both inline; they agreed, which is
  // exactly how a rule change reaches the game and not the numbers that describe it.
  const armour = armourAgainst(landing, defender.armour);

  const taken = damageAfterArmour(dmg, armour);
  if (taken <= 0) return;

  /* Locate it. 1d20 against the defender's own species table, then the damage goes to
     that location AND to general hit points — the two systems agree rather than
     competing, which is what resolveLocationHit is for.

     This is where a Cadence stops being a person with a funny picture. Its five bodies
     each carry 0.28 of the pool, it has no vital and no head, so it cannot be dropped by
     one good shot; instead every body that goes costs the whole creature -10% to
     everything, and it degrades toward useless rather than dying. A Vesh, conversely,
     has a ridge for a vital that is a LONG target rather than a small one. None of that
     could be measured before, because damage was never located. */
  const loc = locationFor(d(rng, 20), defender.species, mode);
  const slot = defender.locations.find(l => l.id === loc.id) ?? defender.locations[0];
  const res = resolveLocationHit({
    damage: taken,
    locationMax: slot.max,
    locationTaken: slot.taken,
    majorWoundThreshold: defender.majorWound
  });
  slot.taken = res.locationTaken;
  slot.disabled = res.disabled;
  slot.destroyed = res.destroyed;
  if (res.majorWound) defender.majorWounds++;

  defender.hp -= taken;
  // Recomputed from the whole body, not accumulated, because the effects fold together
  // rather than stacking per hit — two disabled legs are one condition, not two.
  defender.wounded = locationEffectsFor(defender.locations);
}

/** One fight to a conclusion. Returns which side stood, and how long it took. */
export function runFight(rng, partySpecs, enemySpecs, { maxRounds = 40 } = {}) {
  const party = partySpecs.map(s => buildCombatant(s, { side: "party" }));
  const enemy = enemySpecs.map(s => buildCombatant(s, { side: "enemy" }));
  const all = [...party, ...enemy];

  let round = 0;
  for (; round < maxRounds; round++) {
    if (!party.some(isFighting) || !enemy.some(isFighting)) break;

    // Reaction is re-rolled EVERY round, including the first — the opening round is
    // ordered like every other one. Load is not modelled, so this is base plus a die.
    for (const c of all) {
      c.defencesThisRound = 0;
      c.initiative = c.reactionBase + d(rng, REACTION.die);
    }
    const order = [...all].sort((a, b) => b.initiative - a.initiative);

    for (const actor of order) {
      if (!isFighting(actor)) continue;
      const foes = (actor.side === "party" ? enemy : party).filter(isFighting);
      if (!foes.length) break;
      attack(rng, actor, foes[Math.floor(rng() * foes.length)]);
    }

    // End of round: anyone at or below zero loses ground on the dying clock.
    for (const c of all) {
      if (c.hp <= 0 && conditionOf(c) !== "dead") c.dyingRounds++;
    }
  }

  const standing = party.filter(isFighting).length;
  return {
    rounds: round,
    partyStanding: standing,
    partyDown: party.length - standing,
    partyHurt: party.filter(c => c.hp < c.hpMax).length,
    wiped: standing === 0,
    won: !enemy.some(isFighting) && standing > 0,
    dead: party.filter(c => conditionOf(c) === "dead").length
  };
}

/* ---------------------------------------------------------------- many fights */

export function measure(partySpecs, enemySpecs, { runs = 400, seed = 1 } = {}) {
  const rng = makeRng(seed);
  const rounds = [], hurt = [], down = [];
  let wipes = 0, wins = 0, dead = 0;

  for (let i = 0; i < runs; i++) {
    const r = runFight(rng, partySpecs, enemySpecs);
    rounds.push(r.rounds); hurt.push(r.partyHurt); down.push(r.partyDown);
    if (r.wiped) wipes++;
    if (r.won) wins++;
    dead += r.dead;
  }
  const mean = xs => xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length;
  const median = xs => { const s = [...xs].sort((a, b) => a - b); return s[Math.floor(s.length / 2)]; };

  return {
    runs, seed,
    partySize: partySpecs.length,
    enemyCount: enemySpecs.length,
    hurtMean: mean(hurt),
    downMean: mean(down),
    roundsMedian: median(rounds),
    wipeRate: wipes / runs,
    winRate: wins / runs,
    deathsPerRun: dead / runs
  };
}

/* ---------------------------------------------------------------- the corpus */

const ALL_SPECS = new Map();
for (const s of [...NPCS, ...PREGENS, ...ROSTER]) ALL_SPECS.set(s.key, s);
for (const name of ["throughtrain", "starter", "lastadmission", "openday"]) {
  const mod = await import(`./scenario-${name}.mjs`);
  for (const v of Object.values(mod)) {
    if (Array.isArray(v)) for (const s of v) if (s?.ch && s.key) ALL_SPECS.set(s.key, s);
  }
}

/* ---------------------------------------------------------------- cli */

/* Only when run directly. Everything above is importable — check-lethality will want
   measure(), and a module that exits the process on import is no use to it. */
const invokedDirectly = process.argv[1]
  && import.meta.url === pathToFileURL(process.argv[1]).href;

if (invokedDirectly) {

const argv = process.argv.slice(2);
const opt = (n, dflt) => { const i = argv.indexOf(n); return i >= 0 ? argv[i + 1] : dflt; };
const has = n => argv.includes(n);

if (has("--list")) {
  const rows = [...ALL_SPECS.values()].map(s => `  ${s.key.padEnd(24)} ${s.name}`);
  console.log(`${rows.length} specs:\n${rows.sort().join("\n")}`);
  process.exit(0);
}

const creatureKeys = (opt("--creature", "") || "").split(",").map(s => s.trim()).filter(Boolean);
if (!creatureKeys.length) {
  console.error("usage: node tools/simulate.mjs --creature <key>[,<key>] [--count N] "
    + "[--party N|name,name] [--runs N] [--seed N]\n"
    + "       node tools/simulate.mjs --creature <key> [--count N] --spread [--party-size N]\n"
    + "       node tools/simulate.mjs --list");
  process.exit(1);
}

const enemySpecs = [];
for (const k of creatureKeys) {
  const spec = ALL_SPECS.get(k);
  if (!spec) { console.error(`no such creature "${k}" — try --list`); process.exit(1); }
  enemySpecs.push(spec);
}
const count = Number(opt("--count", 0));
if (count > 0) {
  const one = enemySpecs[0];
  enemySpecs.length = 0;
  for (let i = 0; i < count; i++) enemySpecs.push(one);
}

/* The party is duty-roster agents: a number takes the first N, or name them. */
const partyArg = opt("--party", "4");
let partySpecs;
if (/^\d+$/.test(partyArg)) {
  partySpecs = ROSTER.slice(0, Number(partyArg));
} else {
  partySpecs = partyArg.split(",").map(n => {
    const want = n.trim().toLowerCase();
    const found = ROSTER.find(r => r.key === want || r.key === `pc_${want}`
      || r.name.toLowerCase().includes(want));
    if (!found) { console.error(`no roster agent "${n}" — try --list`); process.exit(1); }
    return found;
  });
}

/* ------------------------------------------------------------------ spread */

/**
 * The same fight against EVERY party the duty roster can field.
 *
 * This exists because a single published number for an encounter turned out to be the
 * wrong instrument. THROUGH TRAIN Act Three advertises one figure — "the party is wiped
 * in 24% of runs" — and the honest answer for that fight is anywhere between 4% and 96%
 * depending on which four agents the players picked at the start of the session. The
 * armed postings walk it; four trades are massacred. A GM reading the single number is
 * reading somebody else's game.
 *
 * Exhaustive rather than sampled: C(16,4) is 1820 parties and the whole sweep takes
 * about half a minute, so the worst case reported IS the worst case rather than an
 * estimate of it. A GM planning a session wants to know the actual floor.
 */
if (has("--spread")) {
  const size = Number(opt("--party-size", 4));
  const runs = Number(opt("--runs", 100));
  const seed = Number(opt("--seed", 11));

  const combos = [];
  (function choose(start, picked) {
    if (picked.length === size) return combos.push([...picked]);
    for (let i = start; i < ROSTER.length; i++) { picked.push(i); choose(i + 1, picked); picked.pop(); }
  })(0, []);

  process.stderr.write(`measuring ${combos.length} parties of ${size}, ${runs} runs each...\n`);
  const rows = combos.map(idx => {
    const party = idx.map(i => ROSTER[i]);
    const r = measure(party, enemySpecs, { runs, seed });
    return { idx, party, wipe: r.wipeRate, down: r.downMean, hurt: r.hurtMean };
  }).sort((a, b) => a.wipe - b.wipe);

  const name = p => p.map(x => x.key.replace(/^pc_/, "")).join(", ");
  const pc = x => `${(x * 100).toFixed(1)}%`;
  const mid = rows[Math.floor(rows.length / 2)];

  /* Each agent's average effect on the wipe rate across every party they appear in,
     against the average of the ones they do not. This is the line a GM actually uses:
     it says who to send, in points of wipe rate, for THIS fight. */
  const effect = ROSTER.map((agent, i) => {
    const inParty = rows.filter(r => r.idx.includes(i));
    const out = rows.filter(r => !r.idx.includes(i));
    const avg = xs => xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b.wipe, 0) / (xs.length || 1);
    return { key: agent.key.replace(/^pc_/, ""), delta: (avg(inParty) - avg(out)) * 100 };
  }).sort((a, b) => a.delta - b.delta);

  console.log(`
  SPREAD — ${enemySpecs.length} x ${enemySpecs[0].name}
  every party of ${size} the duty roster can field: ${rows.length} of them, ${runs} runs each, seed ${seed}

  safest    ${pc(rows[0].wipe).padStart(6)} wiped   ${name(rows[0].party)}
  median    ${pc(mid.wipe).padStart(6)} wiped
  hardest   ${pc(rows.at(-1).wipe).padStart(6)} wiped   ${name(rows.at(-1).party)}

  Spread of ${(rows.at(-1).wipe - rows[0].wipe) * 100 >= 20 ? "" : "only "}${((rows.at(-1).wipe - rows[0].wipe) * 100).toFixed(0)} points across party choice.
${(rows.at(-1).wipe - rows[0].wipe) > 0.2 ? "  One published number for this fight would be the wrong instrument.\n" : ""}
  each agent's effect on the wipe rate, over every party they are in:
${effect.map(e => `    ${e.key.padEnd(14)} ${e.delta >= 0 ? "+" : ""}${e.delta.toFixed(1)} points`).join("\n")}
`);
  process.exit(0);
}

const result = measure(partySpecs, enemySpecs, {
  runs: Number(opt("--runs", 400)),
  seed: Number(opt("--seed", 1))
});

const pct = x => `${(x * 100).toFixed(1)}%`;
console.log(`
  ${enemySpecs.length} x ${enemySpecs[0].name}   vs   ${partySpecs.length} duty-roster agents
  ${partySpecs.map(p => p.name).join(", ")}
  ${result.runs} runs, seed ${result.seed}

  agents hurt        ${result.hurtMean.toFixed(2)} of ${result.partySize}
  agents down        ${result.downMean.toFixed(2)} of ${result.partySize}
  median rounds      ${result.roundsMedian}
  party wiped        ${pct(result.wipeRate)}
  party won outright ${pct(result.winRate)}
  deaths per run     ${result.deathsPerRun.toFixed(2)}
`);

}