Reading both ends of the four-player cut — seed 5's sweep and seed 2's wipe —
says the fight is not decided by round five but by whoever lands the first
disabling hit, on average in round two. Both sides disable on one good blow, so
each one thins the return fire and makes the next likelier; nothing pulls a
fight back toward the middle.
tools/first-blood.mjs measures it: 49.7/50.3 on who strikes first, and 23.1% vs
66.5% wipes on either side of that. Six against six is the control at 8.6% vs
22.4%. A reading tool, not a guard — it records nothing, and no figure from it
goes on a generated page.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
