Files
RingBRP/system.json
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slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 48216bae10 Focus fire across all 47, and the same confound one turn later (R-260)
Measured in simulate.mjs. For each creature, the pack size whose spread-fire win rate
lands nearest 50% — a fight at 0% or 100% cannot show an effect, which is why R-259's
first sample was three-quarters useless — then focus versus spread, 2000 fights across
three seeds.

31 of 47 creatures had a pack size that could show anything. Focus fire helped 31 of 31,
by more than that row's own noise 31 of 31 times, mean +12.8 points. Best is 6x The
margin, 40.4% -> 61.1%. The other 16 are unmeasurable rather than unaffected: eleven are
trivial six at a time, five are hopeless in pairs.

R-259's decomposition was confounded, and I wrote it while correcting a confound. It
credited the defence ladder with 4-5 points by comparing dodge <=30% against dodge >=55%
— but the low-dodge samples were PAIRS and the high-dodge ones TRIOS. Held at a fixed
pack size, dodge is worth 1-2 points. Pack size is the driver: 8.0 points for a pair,
14-15 for three or more, then flat. What focus fire buys is that a dead creature stops
attacking and a half-dead one does not attack any less.

Two failures, one cause: comparing groups that differ in more than the thing being
measured. The control is cheap and I did not run it until the third time.

The bestiary advised concentrating fire and gave the ladder as the reason — right advice,
wrong reason. It now gives the reason that survives measurement.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 00:03:02 +01:00

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5.5 KiB
JSON

{
"id": "ringbrp",
"title": "The Custodians",
"description": "A Basic Roleplaying game of agents who cross the crossing to contain what should not be there — and who come back a little less from here each time.",
"version": "1.7.15",
"compatibility": {
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"verified": "14.364"
},
"authors": [
{
"name": "Tim Evans (slaguru666)"
}
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"path": "lang/en.json"
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"system": "ringbrp",
"ownership": {
"PLAYER": "OBSERVER",
"ASSISTANT": "OWNER"
}
},
{
"name": "npcs",
"label": "The Custodians · Natives & Threats",
"path": "packs/npcs",
"type": "Actor",
"system": "ringbrp",
"ownership": {
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}
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"type": "RollTable",
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{
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"manifest": "https://gitea.timevans.uk/slaguru666/RingBRP/raw/branch/main/system.json",
"download": "https://gitea.timevans.uk/slaguru666/RingBRP/archive/main.zip",
"license": "LICENSE.txt"
}