Two holes a peer session's per-agent measurements pointed at. Their scratch
figures are not used; both edits are sourced to published numbers or to the
guard that now holds them.
EXPOSURE gains a fifth point: the party's sheets read about twice as effective
as they are, and the number doing it is the column's Dodge 68. That is
arithmetic off two published values, not a measurement -- Dodge 68 on The
Quiet Neighbours (tools/content.mjs, printed by the bestiary) and one defence
spent per incoming blow, so a 40% attack against a fresh dodge connects about
one time in eight. Nothing in the document said so, and grep for "expect to
hit" / "hit rate" / "lands about" returned nothing at all.
The point carries its own way out: DEFENCE_STEP is -30, so a defender who has
dodged once meets the next blow at 38%, then 8%, then the floor. Spend their
dodges rather than out-shooting them. That is also the other half of why the
four-player cut is a different game -- three attackers cannot spend three
defenders' dodges and six can, so the missing attacker is the one who would
have made everybody else's shots land.
The recorded landing rates agree and are now citeable (16-18%, above the naive
one-in-eight because most blows are not the first of their round), so the
sub-bullet cites tools/attackers-baseline.json rather than asserting.
The scaling note's Ashcroft warning gains the sharper reading: he is not
sidelined, he is busy and ineffective -- 9.2 attacks a fight of which 1% land
and 0.1% disable anybody, both held by check-attackers. A player who cannot
act knows to do something else; a player rolling once a round for an hour
thinks he is fighting. So the note now says what to give him instead, using
only what is on his sheet: First Aid 40, Dodge 63, Insight 63, the anchor.
Verified rather than relayed: Dodge 68 at tools/content.mjs, DEFENCE_STEP -30
and the per-round reset in rules.mjs and simulate.mjs, the three fighters'
skills at 40/40/35, and the per-attack rates re-measured independently across
three seeds before the baseline existed (17.6-18.3 / 17.4-17.6 / 15.5-16.2 /
1.0%, against the recorded 17.8 / 17.3 / 16.2 / 1.0).
npm run check: 14 guards, exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
