CLEAN GROUND: re-pin EXPOSURE against the corrected harness

The table was measured at 5450521 and marked due for re-measurement, because R-264 changed
what simulate.mjs measures: hit location by body plan rather than species, armour per
location rather than one scalar, and flyers grounded by a lost wing. Re-run at 6f33525
with the cast, counts, runs and seed the section already declares.

The finding the section exists to publish is unchanged — the understudy still cannot hurt
six agents (0.55 hurt, 0.01 down, 0.0% wiped) and the curve between six and ten of the
column is still the steep part. What moved is the cost of fighting the column, and the
reason is the armour fix rather than anything about the column: a torso vest no longer
protects a head, so every unhelmeted agent is easier to hurt.

  six of the column   8.6% -> 14.8% wiped, 2.38 -> 3.03 down, 1.18 -> 1.55 deaths/run
  ten of the column  83.5% -> 90.8% wiped, 5.69 -> 5.87 down
  six hollow men      0.15 -> 0.42 down, 12 -> 13 rounds

Both spot-checked by running the published command rather than my own script, which is the
claim the section makes to a reader.

This file is timevans-c0's work and the re-measurement was its open note; it committed v0.7
first, so this lands as a separate commit on top rather than entangled with it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
slaguru666
2026-09-13 00:52:09 +01:00
co-authored by Claude Opus 5
parent 6f33525b3a
commit 8f3e1ff48e
+16 -17
View File
@@ -582,16 +582,15 @@ who does not know it will pad Act Four to make it frightening and will be paddin
encounter in the case that is incapable of being dangerous. encounter in the case that is incapable of being dangerous.
**MEASURED.** `tools/simulate.mjs`, 2000 runs each, seed 11, against the cast of six — **MEASURED.** `tools/simulate.mjs`, 2000 runs each, seed 11, against the cast of six —
Ashcroft, Bhattacharya, Renshaw, Braithwaite, Pollard, Okonkwo. Taken at commit 5450521 Ashcroft, Bhattacharya, Renshaw, Braithwaite, Pollard, Okonkwo. Taken at commit 6f33525
with a clean tree. with a clean tree.
> ⚠ **Correct as of 5450521, and due for re-measurement.** The harness is being reworked — > **Re-measured at 6f33525**, after the harness was corrected: hit location by body
> hit location by species rather than body plan, armour per location rather than one > plan rather than species, armour per location rather than one scalar, and flyers
> scalar, flyers grounded by a lost wing — and both baselines are being re-recorded, so > grounded by a lost wing (R-264). The finding is unchanged and the shape of the
> per-creature figures will move. **Re-run the command below and re-pin these numbers > curve is unchanged — but the column got dearer to fight, because a torso vest no
> before the scenario is called convention-ready.** The shape of the finding is not in > longer protects a head. **Six of them now wipe the party in one run in seven
> doubt (the understudy is harmless, the column is lethal, and the curve between six and > rather than one in twelve, and ten wipe it in nine runs out of ten.**
> ten is steep); the decimals are.
``` ```
node tools/simulate.mjs --creature the_understudy \ node tools/simulate.mjs --creature the_understudy \
@@ -600,15 +599,15 @@ node tools/simulate.mjs --creature the_understudy \
| What they fight | Hurt | Down | Wiped | Deaths/run | Median rounds | | What they fight | Hurt | Down | Wiped | Deaths/run | Median rounds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---| |---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **The understudy, alone** | 0.48 of 6 | 0.01 | **0.0%** | 0.00 | **2** | | **The understudy, alone** | 0.55 of 6 | 0.01 | **0.0%** | 0.00 | **2** |
| A duplicate of an agent | 0.45 of 6 | 0.05 | 0.0% | 0.01 | 2 | | A duplicate of an agent | 0.34 of 6 | 0.04 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2 |
| One hollow man | 0.20 of 6 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2 | | One hollow man | 0.28 of 6 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2 |
| Three hollow men | 1.15 of 6 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 6 | | Three hollow men | 1.57 of 6 | 0.01 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 6 |
| **Six hollow men** | 2.79 of 6 | 0.15 | **0.0%** | 0.01 | **12** | | **Six hollow men** | 3.48 of 6 | 0.42 | **0.0%** | 0.04 | **13** |
| Three of the column | 1.74 of 6 | 0.30 | 0.0% | 0.11 | 5 | | Three of the column | 1.88 of 6 | 0.40 | 0.1% | 0.16 | 5 |
| **Six of the column** | 4.54 of 6 | 2.38 | **8.6%** | 1.18 | 13 | | **Six of the column** | 4.79 of 6 | 3.03 | **14.8%** | 1.55 | **14** |
| **Ten of the column** | 5.94 of 6 | 5.69 | **83.5%** | 2.52 | 15 | | **Ten of the column** | 5.97 of 6 | 5.87 | **90.8%** | 2.75 | **13** |
| Fifteen of the column | 6.00 of 6 | 6.00 | **100.0%** | 2.53 | 8 | | Fifteen of the column | 6.00 of 6 | 6.00 | **100.0%** | 2.68 | 7 |
**Read these as a floor.** The harness does not model bleeding, Panic, Coherence, cover, **Read these as a floor.** The harness does not model bleeding, Panic, Coherence, cover,
range bands or fire modes, and every one of those makes a fight worse for whoever is range bands or fire modes, and every one of those makes a fight worse for whoever is