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167 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 4ae4e13196 Desk playtest 7: an honest session, and the three bands nobody wrote
Full session, six players, seed 7742, nothing forced. Pass 6 forced its
triggers on purpose; this one takes what the dice give, because a forced pass
proves a branch works and cannot say how often a GM meets one.

It reached neither thing pass 6 asked for — no fight, and Ashcroft refused
THE OFFER again. What it found is what both of those are instances of.

1. The document covers two bands out of five. Seventeen failure cases are
   written across the acts, which is the house rule honoured properly. Four
   beats state a fumble. Three state a special or a critical. Enumerated
   through gradeRoll against the cast's best rating for each of the 22
   rollable beats: 42.1% of sessions contain a fumble and 36.0% contain one
   with no written case; 93.9% contain a special or better and 90.8%
   contain one on a beat that says nothing. Specials are not rare — 13% at
   63, 11% at 53 — and the scenario asks for 22 rolls. This seed landed on
   four uncovered bands in thirteen rolls, three of them GOOD rolls: a
   critical Persuade on Swinburne that buys less than the fumble does, and
   a special Xenology with nothing above the success.
2. v0.16 wrote the trigger into EXPOSURE and never wrote EXPOSURE into the
   trigger. The Act Three swap beat is named in the new mixed-fight block as
   the moment that starts the fight, and it carries no pointer back; its last
   word before the decision is "survivable". Act Two has done this correctly
   for versions. Five locations across 1,100 lines to adjudicate one beat.
3. Three of the four fumble branches do not print their band, and the one
   that does is the one written in v0.16 — the fix landed where it was being
   thought about, not where the same need already existed. The Close's is
   worse: "on a fumble asking the question" names no skill at all.

The v0.16 fumble clause earned itself immediately: 99 against Medicine 53 is
a fumble, and v0.15's wording read it as a plain failure.

Timing: ~3:35 against 3:40 at six players with no cuts taken. First honest
pass to land inside the clock unaided.

Two fumbles in thirteen rolls is a 4.4% event and is recorded as an
illustration, not a rate. Five fixes listed, unapplied. npm run check: 18
guards pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 15:25:03 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 67e76639f3 R-285: scope the defence-stacking rules to the section that owns them
R-284 scoped the factored-rating rule to the creature's entry and left the
defence-stacking rules matching anywhere on the page, so the exemption sentence
and the "Across N creatures that spend defences" count were accepted wherever they
happened to sit. Moving the exemption line out of its section into the redcap's
statblock -- the page silent exactly where a GM reads the stripping advice --
passes at R-284 and fails here; confirmed by running HEAD's copy against the same
tree.

The owning slice is not always the creature's entry. A factored rating belongs to
the creature; the ladder exemption is an answer to the paragraph it sits in and is
generated into "## Shooting at something that moves", so scoping that rule to
"### Redcap" would have failed a correct page. sliceOf now takes a heading at any
level and each rule names the slice that owns its claim.

A renamed section fails by name rather than scoping to nothing, which is the shape
of every guard that passes because it found nothing to check.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 15:22:04 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 aa3ae24ef2 CLEAN GROUND v0.16 — the fight it was never measuring, and R-283
Applies desk pass 6's seven fixes.

1. EXPOSURE now measures the fight the table will have. Every row in the old
   table was one force fighting alone, and the six at the back are never
   alone — they walk inside forty-one refugees. Six hollow men wipe 0.0%;
   with two of the column joining, 7.8%; with three, 28.7%. Two is now the
   stated default, because two people out of forty-one losing their heads
   while their neighbours are shot is not a large number.
2. The four-player block has hollow-man rows: 0.3% at three, 58.7% at six,
   99.9% with two of the column. Its only hollow-man figure before was the
   six-player 0.0%, so a GM running the cut was reading somebody else's
   table — for the encounter the party is likeliest to choose, because the
   six at the back are the only figures the scenario says are not people.
   GM ESSENTIALS item 3 carries the same correction.
3. Act Three's warning named a roll that does not exist. Its twenty-minute
   bomb hangs off "Anomaly Lore — what a peg is"; the depot entry is a
   Research roll. Pass 4's post-pass inherited the conflation from this
   warning and is corrected too.
4. GM ESSENTIALS states the real fumble band. fumbleStart is
   101 - ceil((101-band)/20), tested before the 96-99 clause: 00 at 85,
   99-00 at 63, 98-00 at 53, 97-00 at 40. Four times what "00 always
   fumbles" implies, in a case that rolls Spot 40 across two acts. Pass 4's
   correction was right at 63 by luck and would have been wrong at 53.
5. Sixth EXPOSURE lesson: a fight costs the session. Median 13 rounds on the
   printed row, 24 mixed, 30 at four players — sixty to ninety minutes in an
   act budgeted at fifty. The Pacing Note now says what to do when one
   starts, and not to absorb a fight and the peg fumble in the same act.
6. The fumbled Xenology is written. At 53 it fumbles on 98-00 and Braithwaite
   puts his name to a baseline human in front of everybody. The un-gated tell
   still arrives; it now costs the party its expert.
7. R-283: simulate.mjs described a mixed force as N of whichever spec came
   first, so six hollow men and six of the column printed as "12 x Hollow
   man" — two fights 88 points of wipe rate apart under one label. The
   composition was always right and the report was not. Uniform and --spread
   output are byte-identical, so nothing already published goes stale.

Every figure re-run before writing rather than carried over. npm run check:
18 guards pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 15:16:17 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 1a2ca44c52 R-284: report a wrong figure as a wrong figure, and read the right entry
R-283 left the intact-sentence-wrong-number case falling through to omission, so
the guard said BESTIARY "does not state" a rating the page was stating. reads()
now has a shape tier between strict and loose: the strict pattern with its value
slot loosened, reporting which of the two numbers moved.

Scoped the per-creature rules while adding it. They read the whole page, and each
is the only rule of its kind today, so a page-wide match found the right line by
luck; a second attackFactor creature would have let the courier's rule match that
creature's sentence and report the courier correct. They now read the creature's
own "### Name" entry -- proved by deleting the courier's line and planting an
identical one under the redcap: still omission, where before it would have passed.

Five discriminations plus the decoy, proved in a worktree with the message read.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 15:15:24 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 327d060eb1 R-283: tell a reworded bestiary sentence apart from a missing one
R-282 matched the page with String.includes, so rewording the exemption sentence
reported "BESTIARY never says it is off the stripping ladder" -- sending a
maintainer after a sentence that is sitting right there, and never naming the
real problem, which is a pattern that has silently stopped reading.

Each textual rule now reads twice. Strict is the sentence as it stands and is
tighter than before (the bold and the full stop, not the bare clause a substring
accepted); loose is the same claim in any wording. Strict passes, loose-only is
reported as a reword with the line quoted and the page presumed right, neither is
the omission.

The loose anchor was wrong on its first pass in the way that matters: "a sentence
with 40% and 80%" also matched the courier's own statblock line, so deleting the
sentence reported a reword and quoted the statblock back. It now excludes that
generated marker, which makes it a test of the claim and not of the digits, and
degrades to omission rather than to a false reword.

Four discriminations proved in a worktree with the message read in each.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 15:12:33 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 e70d25271f Desk playtest 6: the four branches five passes never reached
A branch pass, not a session pass. Seed 3319. For each untested branch the
roller draws from the stream until the roll lands in the target band; every
roll downstream of it is taken as it falls, and the draw counts are printed.

All four branches work as written. The Swinburne fumble is better than the
drawer, the re-cut peg costs the twenty minutes the text promises, and a
failed Xenology no longer strands Act Four — the v0.14 un-gated tell carried
the act with BOTH gated lines failed, which is the strongest result here.

What the pass actually found is outside the branches:

1. The fight the table produces is not the fight the document measures. The
   six at the back stand inside forty-one refugees. Six hollow men alone wipe
   0.0%; with two of the column joining, 7.8%; with three, 28.7%. Stable
   across four seeds. EXPOSURE measures the two forces separately and never
   says what the column does when somebody fires into it.
2. At four players six hollow men wipe 58.7%, and the only hollow-man figure
   in the document is the six-player 0.0%. EXPOSURE's four-player block —
   which exists to say the cut is a different game — has no hollow-man row.
   The curve from three to six is 0.3% to 58.7%.
3. The Act Three warning names the wrong roll. Its twenty-minute bomb hangs
   off "Anomaly Lore — what a peg is"; the depot entry is a Research roll.
   Pass 4 inherited the same confusion and nobody noticed, because the text
   it was checked against carried the error.
4. GM ESSENTIALS understates every fumble band. "00 always fumbles" reads as
   1%; fumbleStart is 101 - ceil((101-band)/20), tested first, so Spot 40
   fumbles on 97-00. Four times what the summary implies, in a scenario that
   rolls Spot 40 through two acts.
5. EXPOSURE prices fights in bodies and never in minutes. Median 13 rounds
   printed, 24 mixed, 30 at four players.

Also: simulate.mjs labels a mixed force with the first spec's name and the
total count, so 6 hollow men + 6 column prints as "12 x Hollow man". The
composition is right and the header is not; every figure above came out of a
run whose header lied about what was fought.

First run in six passes where Ashcroft refused THE OFFER, and the first where
a player character was taken.

Seven fixes listed, unapplied. npm run check: 18 guards pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 15:09:48 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 1a80d3637c R-282: guard the bestiary against the powers, including the next one
check-bestiary proves the page matches its generator, and the generator had never
heard of powers.mjs -- so the redcap sat in "the ones that take the most
stripping" under eighteen green guards while its own entry said it never spends a
defence. Two files agreeing with each other while both disagree with the engine
is a quorum, not a check.

check-powers now asserts per effect kind what the page must say: defenceStacking
requires the creature off the stripping list, named as exempt, and the "across N
creatures that spend defences" count reconciled against powers.mjs; attackFactor
requires the rating the simulator actually uses printed as a number, which the
courier's entry now carries.

The clause that matters is the failure on an unknown effect kind -- a wired effect
with no DOCUMENT_RULE fails the build, so the next one cannot arrive without
somebody deciding what the document owes it. Without that this would guard the
mistake already made and nothing else.

Proved three ways in a worktree, exit codes read directly.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 15:01:04 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 8705b00631 CLEAN GROUND v0.15 — the four-player cut, fixed
Applies desk pass 5's five fixes and corrects a claim the pass itself
overstated.

1. The cut cannot see. Pollard's Spot 53 is the best in the declared cast
   (others 40/40/40/35/35) and he is the first agent the scaling notes
   drop. At five players and fewer his clues — the stump, the six at the
   back, the lorry — are given, not rolled for. check-rollable cannot warn
   about this: it tests the 25% floor, not competence.
2. The split table now has a four-player column. Four of its five rows
   named Pollard or Okonkwo, or said "all six".
3. The Pacing Note says the cuts are sized for six. At four, keep the
   northern seam; pass 5 ran 3:15 with every cut taken.
4. The line rests twenty minutes at four players — Ashcroft is aside for
   THE OFFER, so three agents are talking, not five.
5. Act Four records that THE OFFER nearly quadruples the unsettled rate:
   14.5% if Ashcroft accepted against 3.8% if he refused. Accepting makes
   him both the likeliest person to be taken and the likeliest reason the
   beat resolves into nothing.

Verified against roster.mjs rather than recalled, which caught pass 5's own
error: Spot 53 is the best in the CAST, not the roster — four agents carry
58. Post-pass appended. The check also found that Agyeman's 58 makes the
substitution the scaling notes already name the single best answer to the
cut, which is now written in.

npm run check: 18 guards pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 14:58:14 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 81ff44e70e The bestiary was still describing the fight R-275 changed
Two things in the generated document had gone stale the moment powers reached the
simulator, and eighteen guards were green over both because nothing connects
powers.mjs to bestiary.mjs.

The dodge-ladder section listed Redcap among "the ones that take the most
stripping" and counted it in "across 47 creatures", when NOT TIRED means it never
spends a defence at all -- the exact opposite of what its own entry says three
pages down. It is off the ladder now, the count reads 46 that spend defences, and
the page names it: stripping is not a plan against it, killing it is.

And the paragraph listing what the harness does and does not model never mentioned
that it fights 39 of the 41 creatures with a power without it. It now says so, and
counts from powers.mjs rather than stating it, including the 14 that are fight
rules it cannot express -- so every figure for one of those is the creature with
its best trick taken away.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 14:55:36 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 97f5cbbcae Desk playtest 5: the four-player cut, played for the first time
Seed 8815, four players — Ashcroft, Bhattacharya, Renshaw, Braithwaite. Every
rating pulled from roster.mjs before rolling, which is the direct consequence
of pass 4 having typed six of sixteen from memory.

The cut is the most measured thing in this project and had never been played.
EXPOSURE prices its fights, check-firstblood holds its swing, check-attackers
holds what each of the four contributes -- and no pass in four had run a
session with Pollard and Okonkwo off the table.

THE RESULT IS NOT ABOUT COMBAT. The fights were never the problem. What breaks
is the party's eyes: POLLARD'S SPOT 53 IS THE HIGHEST IN THE ENTIRE ROSTER AND
HE IS THE FIRST PERSON THE SCALING NOTES DROP. At five players the party's eyes
go from 53 to 40; at four they stay at 40 with a 35 alongside. This run missed
the stump (79 vs 40) and the six at the back (67 vs 35), both Pollard's lane in
the six-player game, both clues the scenario leans on.

check-rollable cannot see this, and the reason is worth keeping: it asks
whether every named skill is reachable at 25% or better, and Spot 40 clears 25
comfortably. It is a rollability check, not a competence check, and the cut is
where the difference bites. The scaling note's only stated cost of dropping
Pollard is that "the cordon loses its shield", which is about a fight, in a
scenario whose first two acts are almost entirely looking at things.

Second finding: FOUR OF THE FIVE PARTY-SPLIT ROWS NAME PEOPLE WHO ARE NOT
THERE. The table is introduced as the fallback for a table that will not choose
its own splits -- and at four players the fallback does not exist, which is
exactly when it is most needed.

Timing runs the other way from pass 4: ~3:15, twenty-five minutes SHORT, because
four people ask fewer questions. Nothing in the Pacing Note says the cuts are
player-count dependent, so a GM following it at a small table finishes early.

The unsettled countdown fired for a second pass running. Recorded with the
caveat that both passes had Ashcroft accept THE OFFER, so both used the
Difficult branch -- 14.5% unsettled against 3.8% if he refuses. Not two draws
from the same distribution, and the document prints only one of those figures.

Five fixes listed, none applied. Also listed: what five passes have still never
tested -- the Swinburne fumble, the re-cut-the-peg fumble, a failed Xenology,
and any fight at all.

npm run check: 17 guards, exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 14:41:39 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 303472f0ab The bestiary said "in doubt" and the rule no longer means that
R-280 widened admission from a [15,85] band to "the spread rate stands clear of
both ends by more than its own noise", which admits fights that are nearly
settled -- the_choir at 99.3%, the_stanchion at 6% -- as long as their noise is
smaller still. The page went on saying "whose outcome was ever in doubt", which
was a fair description of the band and is a loose one of the rule.

It now says "whose odds leave room for a difference to show", and the provenance
line prints the admission rule itself, read from the artifact rather than
paraphrased, so the page cannot drift from the guard again. The rule is phrased
as a clause in check-focus for that reason.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 14:41:14 +01:00
slaguru666 ae06df8e04 Correct desk pass 4: six of sixteen ratings were typed from memory
Found while setting up pass 5 by pulling the sheets from roster.mjs instead of
recalling them. The d100s are unchanged; only what they were compared against
was wrong, and three outcomes flip:

  Pollard  Spot, the stump        58 -> 53   success becomes fail
  Bhattacharya Anomaly Lore       58 -> 63   FUMBLE becomes plain failure
  Braithwaite Xenology (Baseline) 45 -> 53   fail becomes success

So three things pass 4 reported did not happen. The re-cut-the-peg fumble never
fired -- 98 against 63 is a plain failure, 96-99 never succeed -- which means
the ten-minute chase and the whole of finding 2 rest on a roll the seed did not
produce. Braithwaite's Xenology succeeded, so the scenario's one
single-point-of-failure remains untested after five passes rather than having
'finally come up in play'. And Pollard missed the stump.

Read correctly, the same seed lands near 3:34 -- six minutes UNDER budget
rather than six over.

Findings 1, 3 and 5 are untouched: the special was a real 7, the Swinburne
fumble a real 00, and THE OFFER's staging is not a dice question. Finding 2's
conclusion also survives because it never depended on the roll -- Act Three is
budgeted at 50, the text predicts the fumble costs 20, and nothing connected
that to the cut. The reasoning was right and the evidence was invented, and the
scenario now says so instead of citing a playtest that did not happen.

The Pacing Note's slack claim is withdrawn rather than replaced. One seed read
two ways gave 3:46 and 3:34, and the gap between them is about the size of the
margin being argued over. It now tells a GM the shape -- every scene has
something that ends it, the cuts are real, Act Three is the likeliest overrun --
rather than a number a desk pass cannot produce.

npm run check: 17 guards, exit 0.
2026-09-13 14:39:12 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 fa484071cd R-281: a ratchet, because "helps in all of them" survives the advice decaying
R-280 left the claim satisfiable by a gain of 0.2. The artifact now records how
many measurable packs clear their own noise -- reliable: {aboveNoise: 36, of: 38}
-- and the check refuses if that share falls. It may rise freely.

A ratchet rather than a threshold: any threshold here would be a number I chose,
and choosing one just under the current value is what produced MEASURABLE =
[15,85]. A share rather than a count, so widening admission cannot pay it off.

Proved three ways in worktrees: making focus fire actively bad fires the drift
check first, which is correct; making it unreliable and re-recording fires the
older claim at 37 of 38; and claiming a better past, 38 of 38, is refused by the
ratchet itself. The ratchet bites exactly where the old claim does not -- between
"still helps everywhere" and "helps as reliably as it did", which is where a slow
degradation lives.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 14:34:10 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 c127184763 CLEAN GROUND v0.14: pass 4's fixes, and one finding corrected in the applying
Five fixes from desk playtest 4. One of them was wrong and the correction is
the more useful half.

1. A SPECIAL ON THE COLUMN PERSUADE NOW BUYS SOMETHING PORTABLE. It bought
   more conversation, which the line's rest clock then took away -- a player
   in pass 4 said "I rolled a 7 and got less time", which is a good roll
   punished by a timing device. It now buys the almanac early, or a name from
   1962, or "the six at the back don't eat". Each travels out of the scene, so
   the line still stands up on schedule and the roll still paid.

2. ACT THREE'S TWENTY-MINUTE BOMB IS NOW BUDGETED -- and this is the finding
   that was wrong. The pass said the re-cut-the-peg fumble had "no duration and
   no ender". It has both, and always did: the text says a table will spend
   twenty minutes on it and to let them try it exactly once. What was missing
   is that ACT THREE IS BUDGETED AT 50 AND THE TEXT PREDICTS 50 + 20, with
   nothing connecting the fumble to the cut that pays for it. Act Three now
   opens with that warning and makes the northern-seam cut compulsory the
   moment the fumble lands. The clause itself is untouched; it was already
   right.

3. A FUMBLED PERSUADE ON SWINBURNE HAS AN ANSWER. She does not produce the
   photocopy -- she produces the dog, walks them to the stump in silence, and
   H01 reaches them later from the coroner, confirming rather than revealing.
   Better staging than the drawer, and the GM should not regret the fumble.

4. THE SLACK CLAIM IS HONEST NOW. The Pacing Note said ten minutes. Pass 4 on
   a hostile seed finished at ~3:46 with one cut unspent: four minutes and a
   cut. Ten is the friendly-seed number and is what a GM would have planned
   against.

5. THE OFFER'S STAGING ACCIDENT IS NOW DELIBERATE. Moving it inside the column
   scene was purely a time saving; the side-effect is that the offer has no
   audience and Ashcroft returns to a conversation that carried on without him.
   Written down so nobody moves it back.

The correction to 2 is recorded in the playtest document as its own lesson: a
reading made while looking for faults finds faults that are not there about as
readily as ones that are. Apply fixes against the source, not against the notes.

npm run check: 17 guards, exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 14:31:20 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 3d83fbde93 R-280: the band replaced by the test it was standing in for
MEASURABLE = [15,85] proxied for "can this fight move at all". The direct form,
in the units the guard already uses: the spread rate must stand clear of both
ends by more than its own noise. Deliberately blind to the gain -- admitting the
sizes where focus fire clears its noise would make the guard's claim true by
construction. Size is still picked on nearest-an-even-fight.

31 measurable became 38. the_arrears returns at 6.3, and switchboard arrives at
8.1 -- the second largest gain in the artifact, thrown away for being one point
past a round number. Four of the eight carry effects larger than most rows the
band already admitted.

Two of them do not clear their own noise: the_choir has 0.7 points of headroom
and used 0.2, the_stanchion has six and used 0.2. Above-noise falls 31/31 to
36/38 and the bestiary prints 36. That is two measurements reporting no
detectable effect, which the band suppressed by refusing to take them.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 14:27:13 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 23262855b4 Desk playtest 4: the clock, against v0.13's recut timings
Seed 6142, banding from rules.mjs rather than estimated, every roll logged.
Run because desk pass 1's 4:25 describes a scenario that no longer exists --
Act Two was 65 minutes when that pass ran and is now 45.

VERDICT: the clock holds, and for the reason it was built to. Every beat in
Act Two ended on something written into the text rather than on GM judgement,
which is what the recut was for and what the 65-minute version never had. The
run landed at ~3:46 against 3:40, with two of three Pacing Note cuts taken and
the third still in hand -- the first time this scenario has finished a pass
with a cut unspent.

A hostile seed, deliberately not re-rolled: two fumbles, eight failures, and
the party's one reliable Act Four test missing. A clock only tested under lucky
rolls is not tested, because failure is what generates table time.

THREE THINGS THE DICE FOUND, none of them about minutes:

- A SPECIAL FIGHTS THE REST CLOCK. Renshaw rolled 7 against 63 and the column
  opened up at exactly the moment the scene wanted to end. A GM who has just
  rewarded a good roll will not then stand the line up. The roleplay-first
  archetype's verdict was "I rolled a 7 and got less time", which is the only
  sour note in the session and a real design fault.

- THE RE-CUT-THE-PEG FUMBLE HAS NO DURATION. The clause is one of the best
  things in the document and the text itself says a table will chase it. It
  added ten minutes with no guidance about what ends it.

- A FUMBLED PERSUADE ON SWINBURNE HAS NO ANSWER. H01's failure case is written
  for a party who did not ask, not one that asked badly. Predates v0.13, and
  the third pass running to find the failure cases written for absence rather
  than for bad rolls.

WHAT WORKED, WRITTEN BLIND: the unsettled countdown outcome added in v0.12 was
asked for on its first ever roll -- the understudy fumbled 100 against
Ashcroft's failure on the Difficult branch, so the contest came back unsettled.
That is the 14.5% case, it is the aggressor-fumble the rule's author left for
this document to price, and the price is right. No fix needed.

Also confirmed: THE OFFER running inside the column scene costs zero wall
clock, and has a side-effect worth keeping on purpose -- the aside has no
audience, so Ashcroft returns to a conversation that moved on without him.

Five fixes listed, none applied. npm run check: 17 guards, exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 14:23:59 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 a7e4dd7754 R-279: what the_arrears was claiming, and why dropping it is the wrong kind of right
It claimed focus fire is worth 6.3 points against two of them, 14.7% to 21%.
Measured independently at 4000 runs x 3 seeds: 14.2% to 20.4%, gain 6.2, which is
2.4x its own noise and 44% of the base. The claim was true and reproduces.

What failed is a threshold. MEASURABLE is [15,85] and the scan's estimate of a
boundary value moved 14.7 to 14.4. And the creature is a step -- 85.7% at one,
14.2% at two, 0.4% at three -- so no pack size gives an even fight and the band's
endpoints fall in the gap. The band records nothing about a creature whose
defining property is having no middle.

Not moving the band to 14: fitting a threshold to the datum it excludes is how a
guard stops being a test. But the band is a proxy for "can this fight move", and
the direct test -- does the gain clear its own noise -- is already in the
artifact and answers yes. Replacing the proxy is a decision about all 47, not a
fix, and not mine to take unasked.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 14:21:31 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 a7eca91a9c R-278: raising SCAN_RUNS found that SCAN_RUNS had never been read
Asked to raise the scan until the redcap's pack size stopped flipping. Measured
the threshold -- unstable at 3000 and 4000, stable across twenty seeds at 6000 --
raised it, and the re-record took fifteen seconds, which was impossible.

winRate takes three parameters and pickSize passed SCAN_RUNS as a fourth.
JavaScript discards it, so every scan has always run at RUNS and SCAN_RUNS has
never been read by anything. The fix I was asked to make was inert in the same
way as the thing it was fixing.

winRate takes runs now. The redcap is still n=3 with gain 6.3, arrived at stably
rather than luckily; the_arrears drops out of the measurable band at an honest
scan, 31 packs to 30; the_committee moves 2 to 6 and stays pinned. Claim check
still passes, bestiary regenerated.

The only signal was a number being too small. A fifteen-second re-record is good
news, and good news is what nobody investigates.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 14:18:46 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 00e5a993cc CLEAN GROUND v0.13: Act Two cut from 65 minutes to 45, and the clock now fits
The scenario ran 20 minutes over the house budget (3h30 play plus a ten-minute
break, 3h40 wall clock) and Act Two carried all of it at 65 minutes. It is now
45, and the session lands at 3:40 exactly: 45 + 45 + 50 + 45 + 25 = 210 minutes
of play.

NOTHING WAS DELETED. The twenty minutes came out of structure, which is the
only kind of cut that survives contact with a table:

- THE CROSSING IS CAPPED AT FIVE. It was "let the silence sit until a player
  breaks it", which is open-ended by construction. If the table is still quiet
  at minute five the Geiger finds its own voice. A silence that has stopped
  being tense is just a pause.

- THE OFFER RUNS INSIDE THE COLUMN SCENE, not beside it. It was "somewhere in
  this act, take Ashcroft's player aside for one minute" -- a separate slot.
  Run during the line's rest, while the other players are talking to Ivy, it
  costs nothing, because the table is already occupied.

- THE LINE'S REST IS THE ACT'S CLOCK, and this is the cut that does the work.
  The column walks every day and stops to rest, not to meet people. Ivy talks
  for as long as the line is sitting down, and the line sits for twenty-five
  minutes; then the old ones stand up, because they always do. The scene ends
  on the GM's schedule through the scenario's own premise rather than through
  a GM deciding to move things along -- and it is the loop showing itself for
  the first time, which makes the timer do dramatic work as well as temporal.

The Pacing Note now carries 65 minutes of further cuts against what was a
55-minute problem, so there is about ten minutes of genuine slack for a table
that talks. That is the first slack this scenario has ever had. It also now
says where to cut if the break arrives late: Act Three's depot search, never
Act Four, which is the shortest act with the most to do.

Also fixed a stale duplicate: the Overview said "Runtime: 4h00" while STATUS
and the timing table said otherwise. Every runtime figure in the document now
agrees, and the remaining mentions of 4h00 are explicitly historical.

CAVEAT, STATED IN THE DOCUMENT: desk pass 1's 4:25 predates this restructure
and no fourth desk pass has been run against the new timings. The first human
run is also the first test of this clock.

npm run check: 17 guards, exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 14:17:34 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 38012d56ff R-277: n=3 is right for the redcap, and R-276 was wrong about why
check-focus picks the pack size nearest an even fight. For the redcap that is
n=3 at 28.0% against n=2's 73.4% -- correct, and also where focus fire is worth
most. But the margin is 1.4 points and the scan is 400 runs: run across eight
seeds it picks 3 seven times and 2 once, and the recorded gain would move 6.3 to
4.9 with it.

R-276's explanation was wrong. Its table was measured against the CLEAN GROUND
cut, which it never named. Against the frozen party a lone redcap is worth 0.4
rather than 6.1, because that party wins 98.9% and nothing shows against a
ceiling. The power is worth most where the fight is in doubt -- 3.8 at n=2, 3.1
at n=3, nothing at either end. Not outnumbered. Undecided.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 14:11:20 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 e21446b164 CLEAN GROUND: say plainly that it runs 20 minutes long
Found while revising the Contingency 2027 prep deadlines. The house standard
(docs/house-standards.md in the convention repo) allows 3h30 of play inside the
four-hour slot plus a ten-minute break -- about 3h40 wall clock against roughly
3h15 of content. This document has always budgeted 4h00, which is the whole
slot with nothing either side, and never said that was over.

Worse, the Pacing Note's ~25 minutes of cuts read as slack and are not: desk
pass 1 ran 4:25, so taking every cut lands at 4:00, still 20 minutes past the
house budget. A GM reading "4h00 including a break" alongside "the Pacing Note
carries cuts" would reasonably conclude there was room to spare. There is none.

STATUS now carries the overrun, and the two honest ways out are written down
rather than left implicit: find another 20 minutes, most likely in Act Two's
65, or declare it a deliberate exception and run it where nothing follows --
which at Contingency 2027 it does, Sunday afternoon with only a reserve behind
it. Not decided; that is Tim's call.

Until then the instruction is explicit: assume an overrun and take the cuts
from the start rather than deciding at the break.

npm run check: 17 guards, exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 14:09:21 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 7fc0da3ecf R-276 correction: check-lethality fights solo, and I read the wrong column
Asked to re-record the lethality baseline against a lone redcap, I read the tool
and found it already does: measure(party, [spec]), with a comment saying "Solo,
because a creature is the unit under test". My claim that it fights packs came
from memory of check-focus, whose redcap is n: 3.

The lethality figure was also not hiding the power. Wipe rate moved 0.7% to 0.9%
because one redcap cannot wipe four agents whatever it ignores -- that column is
at its floor. Agents down moved 0.55 to 0.74 of 4, a 35% relative increase, which
is the column I did not look at.

No baseline re-recorded: it is already solo and was re-recorded in R-275.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 14:08:04 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 8fa691c4aa R-276: NOT TIRED is visible in play, and worth nothing where we measure it
Played four agents against one redcap. Two dodges in one round, both at 75 --
DEFENCE_STEP is -30, so the second would have been 45 and the roll of 70 would
have failed. The wiring fires.

Measured with and without, 2000 x 3 seeds: the power costs the party 6.1 points
against a lone redcap and 0.1 against three of them. It is a rule about being
outnumbered -- a lone defender spends four defences a round, a pack spends one
each -- which is why check-lethality moved only 0.7% to 0.9%. The baseline fights
redcaps in a pack, the configuration where the power is worth nothing, so that
figure is the floor rather than the effect.

Not presented as evidence: at seed 3 the party wins with the power on and is wiped
with it off, which is stream divergence rather than direction.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 14:02:54 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 dee2c8f776 CLEAN GROUND: booked — Contingency 2027, Sunday 31 January, afternoon
Slot 9. Recorded in STATUS and both open questions closed. The convention
repo (slaguru666/contingency2027) carries the booking and points back at this
file rather than copying it: seventeen guards check the scenario here, and a
copy over there would be a second version nothing checks.

That spends the Sunday afternoon re-run reserve, which was real slack. The
convention schedule note now names this game as the one that gives if prep on
the eight booked games slips — it is the newest, least tested, and the only one
whose absence costs nobody a booked seat.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 11:32:08 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 32ca982369 R-275: the harness had never read a creature's power
41 statblocks carry a POWER in their tactics and simulate.mjs read none of them,
so a redcap that ignores the cumulative defence penalty has been measured as a
creature that tires -- in check-lethality, in check-focus, and in every figure
published about it. The defect was not that the powers were unimplemented, it was
that nothing said they were not.

powers.mjs classifies all 41: 2 wired, 14 notSimulable with a stated reason, 25
not fight rules. check-powers refuses an unclassified POWER and refuses a
notSimulable without a reason -- and it does not test that the harness imports a
power, it fights the creature with and without and requires the two to disagree.

Moved: the courier 9.4% to 1.0% wiped (it attacks at half while carrying), the
redcap 0.7% to 0.9% (small, because these fights rarely spend a second defence).

ARGENT AND GULES was wired and then un-wired: it tripled the supporter's wipe rate
to 75.2% because the harness has no ground and applied the borough-ground condition
unconditionally. Same reason THE PULL is not wired. I had wired one and refused the
other on identical facts.

Lethality and focus re-recorded, bestiary regenerated.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 11:05:11 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 9f3a63174f CLEAN GROUND v0.12: convention one-shot, the print pack, and the real opposed roll
Tim settled the last two questions: convention one-shot, and rules.mjs gains a
real opposed roll (landed by a peer session at R-273). Both decisions change
the document, and the one-shot unblocked the print pack.

THE PRINT PACK — docs/scenarios/CLEAN_GROUND_HANDOUTS.html, guard 17.

Four A4 sheets, self-contained, no external fonts or assets: H01 the coroner's
note on white, H02 the 1962 committee minute on cream with photocopy grain,
H03a and H03b the almanac on ruled paper. 11pt floor throughout.

The binding constraint is that H03a and H03b must print identically or the
almanac trick dies, so that is structural rather than careful: they share one
`.almanac` class and every dimension comes from a variable defined once. There
is no selector anywhere that names one page and not the other, and
check-handouts fails the build if one appears, if their markup structures
diverge, if their columns differ, if any row stops reading "41 mi", if the
counts stop being forty-one now against fifty-three then, or if the pack and
the scenario drift apart.

It earned itself immediately: its first run failed my own pack for five rules
at 10.5pt, under the house 11pt floor. Rendering was checked visually too,
which caught two things no guard would have — the "TO CLEAN GROUND" header
colliding with NOTES, and the writing crossing the red margin rule instead of
starting right of it.

THE ONE-SHOT. Countdown step 6 said "and this is a campaign", which the
decision contradicts. Rewritten, and the Close's "leave it filed" ending now
says how to land it tonight: do not end on "you'll be back", because the table
never will and a hook they cannot take reads as an unfinished scenario. Name
the next agent who gets sent, and have Registry thank them.

THE OPPOSED ROLL. The scenario-local ruling is deleted; GM ESSENTIALS points
at the game. Both beats were re-priced against the real rule by enumerating
all 10,000 roll pairs -- exact, no seeds -- and two things fell out:

  THE OFFER IS PRICED. Ashcroft refusing is taken 21.9% of the time, the
  safest file at the table. Accepting: 48.7%, past Braithwaite's 37.6%.
  Accepting does not make him a bit more vulnerable, it makes him the easiest
  person in the room, and the countdown reaches for the easiest.

  STEP 5 CAN COME TO NOTHING, 14.5% of the time against an Ashcroft who
  accepted, and that row fires once and is marked permanent. Previously a
  silent gap in a climactic beat. It is now a written outcome with read-aloud
  text: the reach fails, it wears the wrong face for a moment, the party learns
  what it is and cannot prove it, and the clock still turns to step 6.

Also: update-readme's count-word list ran out at sixteen, one guard after its
own comment warned about hardcoded lists going stale. It failed loudly rather
than silently, so it is an inconvenience and not a defect. Extended.

npm run check: 17 guards, exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 10:50:03 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 dd3d818893 R-274: the opposed roll works and the combat never reaches it
Played the hollow man against the cut. THE FILE IS YOURS NOW never fires --
simulate.mjs reads statblocks and weapons and has no concept of tactics, so
R-273 closed a gap in rules.mjs and left the same gap one layer out.

Resolved by hand it behaves: every roll pair enumerated for both beats. The
tie-break carries it -- at POWx5 100 against 60 the aggressor still only takes
them 48% of the time, because equal bands go to whoever is being acted upon.

Act Four prices THE OFFER: accepting it moves Ashcroft from the safest person in
the room to the least safe, 21.9% to 48.7%, past Braithwaite's 37.6%. And that
once-only row no-ops 14.5% of the time against him, which Act Three can absorb
and a permanent countdown beat may not.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 10:45:32 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 cdbb2e34ee R-273: the opposed roll, built where the authority lives
The content has called for 'opposed POWx5' since before the rule existed -- the
hollow man's tactics, CLEAN GROUND twice, slice-text three times -- and rules.mjs
defined none. A scenario carried a local ruling that said in its own text it was a
ruling and not a rule.

Generalises that ruling rather than inventing another: both sides roll, the better
band wins, only the ladder the game already has. Ties go to whoever is being acted
upon, which is what defenceOutcomeFor has always said; the scenario's 'favour the
agent' gave the same answer only because no agent ever initiates one. Neither side
succeeding leaves the contest unsettled rather than won, which the two beats need
in opposite directions.

Two exports at the scenario session's request: opposedOutcomeFor compares graded
levels and carries both, so a caller can price a fumbled attempt without this file
deciding what a fumble costs; opposedContestFor runs it from ratings and rolls with
per-side difficulty, so 'resists at Difficult' does not put applyDifficulty back
into a document. Spot-checked against the real Act Four beat: 55 against 85 at
Difficult, which is 42.

Page 1 states it by asking it -- the tie-break and the margin are computed from the
rule at build time, so the book cannot drift from the engine.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 10:42:17 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 d03b3208e5 check-cited: the counter watching for invisible markers was itself case-blind
Fourth variant of the same defect, found by the peer session probing sideways.
Neither CITE nor ANY_CITE carried the `i` flag, and ANY_CITE required a literal
"cite:" with no space before the colon. So three plausible spellings were
invisible to the reader AND to the counter that exists to catch invisible
markers:

  <!-- Cite: first-blood cut.swing -->     OK 25, exit 0
  <!-- CITE: first-blood cut.swing -->     OK 25, exit 0
  <!-- cite : first-blood cut.swing -->    OK 25, exit 0

Each of those was verified carrying a citation printing 41 against an artifact
holding 40, and each reported OK with a count byte-identical to a clean tree.
The count check could not see them because it was looking for the same literal
the reader was. Capitalising the first word of a comment is not an exotic
mistake.

The two patterns are now deliberately asymmetric, which is the actual fix:

  CITE      tolerates case and spaces around the colon, so those spellings
            simply work when correctly placed.
  ANY_CITE  stays looser still, so a spelling neither of us anticipated is
            counted and named rather than skipped.

The reader accepts only what the format specifies; the counter recognises
anything a person might have meant as a citation; the difference is reported.
The failure text now covers misspelling as well as misplacement, since the
unread set can be either.

Matrix verified, exit codes read directly: a wrong value fails under all four
spellings including no-spaces; a right value passes under all of them, counting
26; a misplaced-and-capitalised marker fails; a marker missing its path fails;
clean tree OK 25 with no false positive.

Four iterations of this guard, four variants of one defect -- something that
exists and is never read -- and all four were found by the session that did not
write it.

npm run check: 16 guards, exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 10:33:17 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 0de463c470 check-cited: make the regex match its own error message, and name the right lines
Two residual defects in the marker check added at 4d7d93a, both found by the
peer session that found the original.

1. THE REGEX WAS LOOSER THAN ITS DOCUMENTATION. The failure text has always
   promised the comment must follow its figure "immediately, with nothing but
   markup between", but CITE's separators were \s*, which spans newlines — so
   a marker on the line after its number resolved and was checked, contrary to
   the stated rule. Tightened to [ \t] throughout.

   Verified safe before changing it: matched under the loose pattern 25, under
   the tight pattern 25, so no citation in CLEAN GROUND relies on crossing a
   newline. There is no finding in the document.

2. THE OFFENDER REPORT WAS RIGHT ABOUT THE COUNT AND WRONG ABOUT THE LINES.
   It filtered line by line, so a valid cross-line citation was printed as an
   offender whenever some other marker was genuinely unread — a maintainer
   told "line 15 is broken" would have edited a working citation. That is the
   headline defect fixed an hour ago one level down: correct verdict, wrong
   reason.

   Offenders are now located by position across the whole text, so the lines
   named are exactly the markers no CITE match covers. This is the fix that
   matters independently of the regex: a marker spanning lines would still be
   counted once by ANY_CITE and named nowhere, so tightening alone leaves a
   narrower version of the same bug, and position-based reporting stays
   correct if anyone ever loosens the separator again.

Placement battery, exit codes read directly: clean tree OK 25 no false
positive; one word between number and marker fails; bare marker alone fails;
two on a line with one attached fails naming only the unattached; cross-line
now fails rather than silently passing.

Three iterations of this guard, three variants of one defect — a marker or a
message that exists and is not read — and all three were found by the session
that did not write it.

npm run check: 16 guards, exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 10:29:45 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 4d7d93abc8 check-cited: a citation marker nothing reads now fails the build
A misplaced marker failed open. CITE requires the comment to sit immediately
after its figure; put one word between them and the citation is silently
skipped while the run still reports OK with the same count as a clean tree:

  The longest fight seen ran **67** rounds.<!-- cite: fight-tail cut.longest -->
  check-cited: OK — 25 cited figures ...

That marker names a field the guard is supposed to refuse outright, and the
guard never saw it. Worse than an absent citation, because whoever wrote it
believes they added a check — and worse still in a guard written yesterday to
catch exactly this shape of defect.

Every `<!-- cite:` occurrence is now counted and compared against what the
parser actually read; any difference fails and prints the offending line.
Verified on both placement failures: a marker one word from its number, and a
marker on its own line with no number at all. The failure headline was also
wrong for this class -- it claimed a figure mismatched its artifact -- and now
covers both.

Found by a peer session writing a bad citation by accident while testing.

npm run check: 16 guards, exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 10:24:32 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 8279cdfda8 R-272: guard the tail, and stop prose drifting from its artifacts
Three things Tim asked for together: measure the long end of a fight, make the
swing check bite on stale prose, and record in rules.mjs the coincidence that
hid an invented rule from two readers.

GUARD 15 — check-fight-tail, on tools/fight-tail.mjs.

Fourteen guards measured this scenario's combat and none could see a long
fight, because every one of them averages. The cap is the measurement here, so
the tool passes its own (400, not runFight's default 40) and --update refuses
to record anything reaching it. Verified by lowering it back to 40: the cut
loses 20 fights to the ceiling, the six-a-side 117, 107 of those ending
neither won nor wiped, and the recorder stops.

Two claims, both read from a fresh measurement rather than the baseline, so
--update cannot silence them. "The long end is twice the median" was rejected
as a claim because it is true of both encounters and so distinguishes nothing.
Instead: a fight past 15 rounds wipes the party materially more often than a
short one, and the SIX-A-SIDE fight is the longer one (median 14 vs 10.7) --
R-270 showing up as duration, since a disabled fighter keeps fighting 30
points down. The cut is shorter because it is decisive, not safer.

GUARD 16 — check-cited, on tools/check-cited.mjs.

check-firstblood and check-attackers catch the game changing; neither reads
the document. Re-record after a re-cast and the artifact updates, the guard
goes green, and the prose keeps printing the old number under a citation
saying where the new one lives. So citations are now machine-readable --
**40**<!-- cite: first-blood cut.swing --> -- and resolved on every build. 25
of them. It failed three times on its first runs, all real: a config keyed
"column" that the prose called "line", two figures rounded 32.3 -> 32, and a
vacuous pass on zero citations, now fatal in its own right.

It also refuses citation of unstable fields. fight-tail.longest may not reach
prose: same party, same seeds, same runs, and renaming a config moved it 71 ->
90 rounds, because seedFor derives the stream from the id. Across seven
labels -- median spread 0, p95 1, p99 3, longest 21. A sample maximum reads
like a bound and is a property of the label. EXPOSURE states p99 instead.
Same discipline on the deadlier ratio: 2.42 with seed spread 1.1, so the
document gives its direction and declines to quote its size.

RULES.MJS — one comment, no rule change.

Over resolveLocationHit: its two thresholds are unrelated and usually agree.
disabled is a fraction of the pool per location; majorWound is ceil(hp/2) and
feeds only dyingLimitFor; neither removes anyone from a fight, which is
conditionFor at 2 hit points or a destroyed head. At 10 hp, leg/abdomen/chest
capacity is 5 and majorWoundFor is 5, and those locations take 12 of 20 melee
results and 15 of 20 ranged -- so two readers reconstructed a rule that does
not exist, checked it against the log, and were confirmed by it. The note
says to test an arm, the only place the difference shows.

Guards verified to bite, not assumed: drift, re-cast, censoring, the longest
refusal, the rounding catch and the vacuous-pass catch were each forced and
each failed the build with the right guidance, then restored.

npm run check: 16 guards, exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 10:20:25 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 14c34449e3 R-271: measure the tail, and a round cap that scores a long fight as a draw
Fourteen guards all average, so none can see how long a fight might run. 6000
fights per configuration: the cut runs a median of 11 and a 95th of 22, the
six-a-side line a median of 14 and a 95th of 32, and the longest seen are 71 and
79. The line is the LONGER fight, because more bodies means more of them fighting
on at reduced skill rather than dropping. Length predicts death: 61.6% of cut
fights past fifteen rounds are wipes against 42.0% of shorter ones.

maxRounds = 40 is the default every guard runs at and a fight reaching it is
scored as neither wipe nor win -- censoring 0.2% of cut fights and 1.87% of the
line's. Measured before proposing anything: uncensored, the swing moves 39.8 to
39.9 and 14.8 to 15.1, against a recorded noise of 2.1. The cap stays, documented
rather than corrected, because the cure is four re-recorded baselines.

Also R-270 addendum: the hit table is weighted toward the locations where the two
thresholds coincide -- 12 of 20 melee results, 15 of 20 ranged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 10:08:09 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 74e45b15e7 R-270: a rule I invented, and the coincidence that hid it
R-266 said a fighter goes down at half maximum hit points and called it one rule
in both directions. conditionFor puts someone down at hp <= 2; majorWoundFor is
ceil(hp/2) and feeds only how long the dying last; a location is disabled by
resolveLocationHit at its own locationMaxHp capacity.

The reason it survived reading: for a 10-point neighbour majorWoundFor is 5 and a
leg, abdomen or chest holds exactly 5, and for a 12-point agent both are 6. On the
locations that get hit most the invented rule returns the real one's answer, and
the narration prints MAJOR WOUND and disabled on the same line. Arms and heads are
where they part, and I had not looked at an arm.

Found by the scenario session going to rules.mjs to verify a different correction
of mine and reading the next function along. Both errors made the fight look
easier than it is.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 10:03:34 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 6e46ad0909 CLEAN GROUND v0.11.1: correct the mechanism under the first-blood swing
Two wrong mechanisms in one sentence of my own v0.10 prose. The measured swing
of 40 is unaffected -- what was wrong was the explanation I gave for it, which
I wrote from intuition rather than from rules.mjs.

1. "every disable removes an attacker" -- it does not. locationEffectsFor
   (rules.mjs:461) charges 30 points off physical for a ruined leg or
   manipulation for a ruined arm, and simulate.mjs:305 applies the
   manipulation penalty to melee and ranged attacks alike. A 40% attacker
   disabled is a 10% attacker, not an absent one: still swinging, still
   drawing attacks, still a target. A slope, not a cliff.

2. "both sides go down at half their maximum hit points" -- also wrong, and
   this one nobody flagged. Half maximum hit points is majorWoundFor, the
   MAJOR WOUND threshold, which feeds dyingLimitFor and decides how long a
   dying character lasts. It has nothing to do with leaving the fight.
   conditionFor (rules.mjs:1630) puts somebody down at 2 hit points or on a
   destroyed head, and that is the only thing that stops them acting.

The paragraph now states the real loop and warns the GM off the wrong one,
because playing disables as removals gets the fight wrong in the party's
favour -- the direction that makes a party-ending encounter feel survivable.

Credit where due: the first error was caught by a peer session correcting
prose it had sent me twice. I found the second only because I verified the
first against rules.mjs instead of taking it on assertion.

npm run check: 14 guards, exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 10:01:11 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 765b3518db R-269: the fourth quadrant, and a disable does not remove anybody
Seed 16 is the missing corner -- party takes first blood in round 1 and is wiped
anyway -- and it runs 24 rounds. Its last five are Neil dropped by a critical
through armour, then Dominic alone at 1%, failing three times, then dying. That
is what three effective attackers costs at a table when a fight goes long.

Corrects a mechanism I had written twice: a disabling hit does not remove an
attacker, it charges 30 points off physical or manipulation per locationEffectsFor.
Bhattacharya keeps swinging at 10 for four rounds. A slope, not a cliff.

Neither guard fired and neither was wrong: the fight sits in the 25.5% the swing
does not cover, and no guard measures the tail because all of them average.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 09:59:06 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 dc801f7e9f CLEAN GROUND v0.11: Dodge 68, and Ashcroft is busy rather than sidelined
Two holes a peer session's per-agent measurements pointed at. Their scratch
figures are not used; both edits are sourced to published numbers or to the
guard that now holds them.

EXPOSURE gains a fifth point: the party's sheets read about twice as effective
as they are, and the number doing it is the column's Dodge 68. That is
arithmetic off two published values, not a measurement -- Dodge 68 on The
Quiet Neighbours (tools/content.mjs, printed by the bestiary) and one defence
spent per incoming blow, so a 40% attack against a fresh dodge connects about
one time in eight. Nothing in the document said so, and grep for "expect to
hit" / "hit rate" / "lands about" returned nothing at all.

The point carries its own way out: DEFENCE_STEP is -30, so a defender who has
dodged once meets the next blow at 38%, then 8%, then the floor. Spend their
dodges rather than out-shooting them. That is also the other half of why the
four-player cut is a different game -- three attackers cannot spend three
defenders' dodges and six can, so the missing attacker is the one who would
have made everybody else's shots land.

The recorded landing rates agree and are now citeable (16-18%, above the naive
one-in-eight because most blows are not the first of their round), so the
sub-bullet cites tools/attackers-baseline.json rather than asserting.

The scaling note's Ashcroft warning gains the sharper reading: he is not
sidelined, he is busy and ineffective -- 9.2 attacks a fight of which 1% land
and 0.1% disable anybody, both held by check-attackers. A player who cannot
act knows to do something else; a player rolling once a round for an hour
thinks he is fighting. So the note now says what to give him instead, using
only what is on his sheet: First Aid 40, Dodge 63, Insight 63, the anchor.

Verified rather than relayed: Dodge 68 at tools/content.mjs, DEFENCE_STEP -30
and the per-round reset in rules.mjs and simulate.mjs, the three fighters'
skills at 40/40/35, and the per-attack rates re-measured independently across
three seeds before the baseline existed (17.6-18.3 / 17.4-17.6 / 15.5-16.2 /
1.0%, against the recorded 17.8 / 17.3 / 16.2 / 1.0).

npm run check: 14 guards, exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 09:58:14 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 0b86c5ffc3 R-268: guard the sentence that names a player's character
CLEAN GROUND prints that the four-player cut is three effective attackers and
that Ashcroft is not one. Nothing checked it, and a GM reads it aloud to decide
who a real player spends four hours being.

effective-attackers.mjs measures per attack, not per fight: counted per fight
Braithwaite leads on disables, but only because his armour buys him a third more
swings -- per attack he is the weakest of the three. Both rates are recorded and
only the per-attack one is reasoned from. Asserts exact drift, then the sentence:
three clear 5% of attacks disabling, one does not, and that one is Ashcroft.
Re-recording does not silence the claim check; verified in a worktree.

declared-cast.mjs holds the cast marker reading both scenario guards need, rather
than a copy in each. It was briefly named scenario-cast.mjs, which check-scenarios
sweeps into the scenario corpus -- its own example marker was read as a real cast.

update-readme dropped any guard that exited non-zero, so check-rollable vanished
from the README and the count word fell to thirteen while fourteen guards ran. A
missing line is now fatal.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 09:56:01 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 a0d15ad7a9 CLEAN GROUND v0.10: EXPOSURE reframed on the first disabling blow
The old EXPOSURE paragraph read the fight at round five and quoted bucket
figures no guard held. Round five is where the outcome becomes legible; round
two is where it is decided. Reframed on the first disabling blow and cited to
tools/first-blood-baseline.json, so every figure in the paragraph is one the
build re-measures:

  cut   50.3% first blood at mean round 1.8, 25.5% vs 65.5% wipes, swing 40
  line  54.1% at round 1.3, 7.8% vs 23.2%, swing 15.4

An earlier draft carried 43 for the cut swing from a single seed. Three seeds
give 40.0. The note stays in the document.

Also adds a Casting coupling warning: the declared cast in the `cast:` marker
is load-bearing on check-rollable and check-firstblood, and re-casting
invalidates the recorded swing. Verified rather than assumed — swapping
braithwaite for agyeman in the marker fails both guards and the build, and
check-firstblood names the fix:

  "The recorded swing describes the old cast; re-record with --update,
   do not revert the cast."

npm run check: 13 guards, exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 09:50:07 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 60995b28c2 R-267 addendum: read the cast, do not copy it
I told the scenario session that this guard turns a silent re-cast into a build
failure, and it accepted the coupling on that basis. The cast was hardcoded, so
a re-cast would have left it measuring the old six and reporting success.

Reads the <!-- cast: --> marker check-rollable established, drops the two the
scaling note drops by name rather than by position, and refuses to run if the
marker is gone. Verified by re-casting CLEAN GROUND in a throwaway worktree and
watching the guard name the change.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 09:45:38 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 996bd248d3 CLEAN GROUND: one status block, and the end of the build archaeology
A stand-in GM opening this had no single place to start: the state of the document
lived across three playtest logs, twenty commit messages, a status paragraph and a
checklist at the foot. Worse, the two written accounts had drifted apart — the
status paragraph still said the scenario "wants a stress re-run of Act Four, a
player-chair pass", both of which were done and committed, and the foot checklist
still said v0.8 in a v0.9 document with a sentence broken in half.

STATUS now sits at the top and answers the questions a GM actually arrives with:
what version, can I run it (yes, from this file alone), is it convention-ready (no —
never played by human beings, no print pack), what playtesting exists and at which
seeds, how long it runs and where the cuts are, how many players.

Then the three things that are not obvious, as pointers rather than restatements,
because GM ESSENTIALS is where rules live: opposed rolls use a scenario-local ruling
since rules.mjs has none; Ashcroft cannot fight and his player must be told before
the game; and the lethal encounter is the column in Act Two, not the monster in Act
Four, which cannot hurt anybody.

The foot checklist is deleted rather than corrected. Every item on it was either
struck through or now in STATUS, its history is in the logs and the commits, and
keeping a second account of what is outstanding is what let the first one drift.
Open Questions stays as the single home for decisions and STATUS says so in a line
instead of holding a copy — the same rule this repository applies to rule formulas,
applied to prose about state.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 09:42:39 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 ce1103ec0d R-267: a guarded home for the first disabling blow
Another session verified R-266's measurement, agreed the frame was better than
its own, and declined to publish it because the figure had no guarded lineage a
doubter could re-derive. It was right, and the fix costs 0.7s of build time --
which is the number I should have checked before calling it a reading tool and
not a guard.

first-blood.mjs gains --update/--check and is now both the reader and the
measurement of record; check-firstblood.mjs is a thin wrapper over it, the same
shape as check-bestiary. Compares the recorded figures exactly, then asserts only
what a page would claim: first blood lands within 5 points of even in the cut,
and its swing exceeds the six-a-side line's by more than both noises.

Recording it moved the swing from the scratch run's 43 to 40 against a
seed-to-seed spread of 2.1 -- high by more than its own noise, which is the
argument in miniature. update-readme's COUNT_WORD could not reach thirteen.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 09:42:31 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 8e5a30a263 CLEAN GROUND v0.9: the anchor cannot fight, and the cut is three
Reading two narrated fights from another session showed Dominic attacking at
`vs 1`, four times in one of them. Confirmed against the sheet rather than the
log: weapons is empty and his only combat skill is Firearm (Pistol) 43, with
nothing to fire. So the four-player cut fights with Renshaw and Bhattacharya on
compact pistols and Braithwaite on a knife — a quarter of the party out of any
fight, and a large part of why EXPOSURE already said violence at four players is
party-ending without knowing that was the reason.

A defect I introduced. "He carries no weapon, and the GM must not fix it" was
written as characterisation about an anchor having both hands full, and was never
checked against a fight.

Not fixed by arming him, which would cost the character to solve what is really a
briefing failure. Said out loud instead: his entry now states the 1% plainly and
instructs the GM to tell his player BEFORE the game that Dodge 63, First Aid 40,
Insight 63 and the anchor are his set-piece. A player who is not told will roll at
1% for twenty minutes and conclude the sheet is broken, which is the actual harm
here. The scaling note carries the three-attacker arithmetic and points at Agyeman
as fixing the sum as well as the lane; EXPOSURE names the cause in its own prose.

Also recorded in the pass-3 log, deliberately NOT applied: the bimodality now has a
mechanism — both sides disable at half max HP, so each disable thins the return fire
and makes the next likelier, and first blood is a true coin worth 43 points of wipe
rate in the cut against 14 at six-vs-six. It reproduces exactly. It stays out of the
scenario because it comes from a reading tool with no guarded baseline, and a
GM-facing page may not carry a figure nobody can re-derive. The duller published
sentence is the checkable one. If that measurement gets a guarded home the paragraph
should be reframed around the first disabling blow, which is the better frame.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 09:39:22 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 19ed0b5f0f R-266: the coin is the first disabling blow, and it lands in round two
Reading both ends of the four-player cut — seed 5's sweep and seed 2's wipe —
says the fight is not decided by round five but by whoever lands the first
disabling hit, on average in round two. Both sides disable on one good blow, so
each one thins the return fire and makes the next likelier; nothing pulls a
fight back toward the middle.

tools/first-blood.mjs measures it: 49.7/50.3 on who strikes first, and 23.1% vs
66.5% wipes on either side of that. Six against six is the control at 8.6% vs
22.4%. A reading tool, not a guard — it records nothing, and no figure from it
goes on a generated page.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 09:36:05 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 6b95a2c5a5 CLEAN GROUND v0.8: the player chair found the refusals, and both needed deciding
Desk pass 3 is committed alongside — full session from the player chair, choosing
against the scenario at every junction, seed 5580 with one corrected branch at
7731. Every failure case and every pass-2 fix held. What it found instead were the
two things players do that no GM-chair pass can reach, because both are refusals
rather than rolls.

"We are not going through." Three acts live on the far side and the document had
no line about declining to cross, which is the most professionally sensible choice
a party can make after reading a coroner's note about a man who walked himself to
death. Answered now with a reason and not a compulsion: the entry is pegged to a
tree that no longer exists, so a seam with no peg does not sit still — waiting does
not make it safer, it makes it unfindable, and the forty-one go with it. Registry
says that once and leaves the choice alone. A party that still refuses gets a real
ending in ten minutes rather than four railroaded hours.

"Can we cancel it from in here." A Research fumble and an Anomaly Lore success both
landed on a question the document could not answer either way. Decided rather than
fudged: cancellation is a REGISTRY ACT ON OUR SIDE, because the entry is a record
and the record is held here. So it cannot be done from inside, somebody has to be
back through before it happens, and anyone still in the duplicate when it goes goes
with it, having never been filed as being there. The Close now costs not only what
they choose but who is standing where when it takes effect, and if they are bringing
anyone through those two questions collide.

Also: Ray Teasdale, the clearance foreman the timeline always implied and the roster
never carried — a Persuade success in pass 3 bought an interview with a man who did
not exist. Act One's failure case no longer assumes the party is at the farm, since
pass 3 spent the act twenty miles away and the automatic notch sat uselessly on the
other side of the county. The re-cut is answered on a success as well as a fumble,
with the reason: the entry is pegged to the older authority and there is no older
tree. Fix 7's conditional target moved onto the countdown row, because I missed it
myself eight minutes after writing it. A special for reading the child.

And the bimodality paragraph, which took three attempts to earn its place: held when
its citation failed, verified after another session found the cause — three separate
random generators, so a seed named a different fight in each tool — and corrected
once more when its illustration turned out to compare targeting modes rather than
the two ends. Published now as 23% nobody down against 45% everybody, decided by
round five, with the focus-fire claim removed.

Twenty-three fixes across three passes. The cadence is complete; what remains is the
print pack and two decisions that are not a scenario's to make.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 09:34:37 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 e84c85be02 R-265: name the denominator the two-down row is zero out of
The round-five race line read "zero in 2000 fights", which invites the reading
that no fight in the run was a wipe. It is zero out of the 84 that reach round
five with two of the three down — a small bucket, and the sentence should say so
before the figure goes to print in a scenario.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 01:17:51 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 8627fa3536 One generator, so a citation names one fight (R-265)
tools/playthrough.mjs exists to show a reader why a measured number is what it is. I cited
it to another session — read seed 2, see the wipe the 45% row is made of — and the
reproduction failed in front of them. They reported different outcomes at both seeds and
guessed the cause correctly from outside: the two tools were not drawing from the same
stream.

They were not. simulate.mjs used a private mulberry32 makeRng; playthrough.mjs had its own
LCG written to look like it. Both deterministic, both reproducible alone, and "seed 2"
named a different fight in each — which breaks the only thing the tool is for. Its own
comment claimed a seed here names the same fight there. check-focus carried a third copy of
that LCG, so the two guards described the same game with different dice.

makeRng is exported and both files use it. A playthrough seed is now exactly the first
fight of simulate.mjs --seed <n>: --runs 1 --seed 2 and the playthrough give 9 rounds, 4 of
4 down, 1 dead, both.

The other half was my citation rather than the code: the command I sent omitted --mode, so
it plays both targeting arms and prints two fights. They read the last line, I quoted the
first. The summary line now names the arm.

check-focus re-recorded under the shared stream; figures move a point or two. What it buys
is that the bimodality analysis now reproduces the published means exactly — 2.31, 3.03,
0.40, 0.42 against the four rows CLEAN GROUND publishes. Under the old LCG it agreed to
within a decimal, which looked like corroboration and was two experiments landing near each
other.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 01:11:41 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 796bb7df73 CLEAN GROUND: the second EXPOSURE table, and four ratios that moved with it
Another session re-pinned the main exposure table at 8f3e1ff after the harness
correction, and left the surrounding prose to me, which was the right split. Two
things were still outstanding.

The four-player cut carries its OWN table, nested inside a numbered list well below
the main one, and it was still on pre-correction figures: 3.24 / 2.09 / 40.2% / 0.85
and 4.00 / 3.98 / 99.1% / 1.45. Re-measured to 3.25 / 2.31 / 45.0% / 0.98 and
4.00 / 3.99 / 99.8% / 1.46. Easy table to miss and worth naming in the provenance so
the next reader does not have to work out which tables were in scope.

Four prose claims quoted ratios that no longer held. Six of the column wipe one party
in seven rather than one in twelve; ten wipe nine in ten rather than five in six; at
four players three wipe nearly half rather than two in five; and six hollow men take
a median thirteen rounds, not twelve. "Three of them is survivable" now also says
somebody dies in about one run in six, because deaths per run went 0.11 to 0.16.

Independently confirmed rather than taken on trust: my own run of the section's
published command, at its own declared cast of six and seed 11, matched the other
session's figures exactly on every comparable row — understudy 0.55 / 0.01 / 0.0% /
2 rounds, six of the column 4.79 / 3.03 / 14.8% / 1.55 / 14 rounds, ten 5.97 / 5.87 /
90.8% / 2.75, six hollow men 3.48 / 0.42 / 13 rounds. Two sessions measuring
separately and agreeing is better evidence than one measuring twice.

The argument the section exists to make is unchanged and slightly stronger. The
understudy still cannot hurt six agents; the column is deadlier; the steep stretch is
still between six and ten bodies. The cause is nothing about the column — a torso
vest no longer protects a head, so every unhelmeted agent is easier to hurt.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 00:59:45 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 6e3ea8fa19 playthrough: read a scenario's own encounter, against its own cast
The tool could only narrate the guard's fight — the frozen four, at the pack size
focus-baseline records. CLEAN GROUND's EXPOSURE table measures something else entirely: a
declared cast of six at counts of 1, 3, 6, 10 and 15, which is the fight a GM running that
case will actually referee and the one whose numbers we have just re-pinned.

--creature, --count, --party, --seed and --mode now mirror tools/simulate.mjs, so a row
measured there can be read here in words. Positional form still works.

  node tools/playthrough.mjs --creature quiet_neighbours_npc --count 6 \
    --party ashcroft,bhattacharya,renshaw,braithwaite,pollard,okonkwo --seed 11

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 00:55:45 +01:00
slaguru666andClaude Opus 5 8f3e1ff48e CLEAN GROUND: re-pin EXPOSURE against the corrected harness
The table was measured at 5450521 and marked due for re-measurement, because R-264 changed
what simulate.mjs measures: hit location by body plan rather than species, armour per
location rather than one scalar, and flyers grounded by a lost wing. Re-run at 6f33525
with the cast, counts, runs and seed the section already declares.

The finding the section exists to publish is unchanged — the understudy still cannot hurt
six agents (0.55 hurt, 0.01 down, 0.0% wiped) and the curve between six and ten of the
column is still the steep part. What moved is the cost of fighting the column, and the
reason is the armour fix rather than anything about the column: a torso vest no longer
protects a head, so every unhelmeted agent is easier to hurt.

  six of the column   8.6% -> 14.8% wiped, 2.38 -> 3.03 down, 1.18 -> 1.55 deaths/run
  ten of the column  83.5% -> 90.8% wiped, 5.69 -> 5.87 down
  six hollow men      0.15 -> 0.42 down, 12 -> 13 rounds

Both spot-checked by running the published command rather than my own script, which is the
claim the section makes to a reader.

This file is timevans-c0's work and the re-measurement was its open note; it committed v0.7
first, so this lands as a separate commit on top rather than entangled with it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-13 00:52:09 +01:00